Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[mileslunn]

I find this quite awkward in both of the areas that have been changed the most (west-central downtown and the Don Valley ridings). The northern half of the current Trinity-Spadina is much more oriented towards the inner city than to northern and eastern St. Paul; going from College and Ossington up to Forest Hill and Yonge and Eglinton just feels very unnatural.

With Don Valley Central and South, meanwhile, you now have two ridings that combine a very affluent non-immigrant west side with inner suburban South Asian areas in the east. The existing Don Valley West has this of course, but at least it has a certain logic from using the river valley itself as the boundary.

Since Trinity-Spadina is the most overpopulated riding and is the merger of two historic ridings, I would think a natural starting point might be to recreate Spadina and Trinity, with Spadina including the rapidly growing condo areas on the fringe of the downtown core and Trinity combining the southern half of Davenport with roughly the western third of Trinity-Spadina, which together form a natural constituency of very urban but still low-rise row housing.

How are you doing these, by the way?

I agree with Hatman, I’d love to see this mapped.
But Pumpkin does bring up an interesting point; in the past TO’s central riding have always had a north south elongation, and not very wide (see 1933-1947) where they followed major roads by looks of the maps on wiki. If we went NS that would mean Davenport would probably disappear and I agree many in the area might fight this, but it’s an interesting idea that has been done before. St. Pauls could be re-oriented to focus along St. Clair… but you would have the Portuguese mixed between two ridings now.
The Don River under Hatmans map is still the major border of DVS which makes sense but now includes Rosedale which is a much better social-economic, ethnic fit than it was in TOCentre.  It looks like the area east of the river in DVC is Victoria Park Village, not too familiar but looks to be an area similar to Flemingdon park except with a high concentration of South Americans (wiki).  It would be almost impossible to have a riding that includes only these ethinic, more mixed income areas… it would look ridiculous but might be fun to try and map

Anybody have the results for these.  The 905 belt will be the most interesting as there you will get some more dramatic changes and they could impact who wins.  Calgary is pretty boring as no matter how it is drawn the Tories will probably sweep the city unless Harper becomes wildly unpopular and loses really badly nationally.  Toronto is a whole different ballgame since although the Tories don't have much room for improvement they could still pick up a few suburban ones.  The NDP has plenty of areas it could win.  Southern Etobicoke, areas along Yonge Street, Don Valley, and most of North York are pretty much the only areas where the demographics go massively against them.  The Liberals off course could win pretty much every city under the right conditions as their vote is the least concentrated of any of the parties and they can appeal to people on both sides of the spectrum.  I know many on here assume the Liberals are dead and they may very well wither away, but it wouldn't write them off just quite yet.  They have many experienced people and a core dedicated to winning so they could come back.  In 1958 and 1984 many said the same thing and they were wrong, off course they are in worse circumstances than either of those years, but the point is they can come back.  Or how about the Tories and NDP in 1993 and how far they have come since.  True the PCs and Reform merged but nonetheless neither party was anywhere remotely close to even winning a minority let alone a majority then.

[mileslunn]

Any ideas how the provinces that aren't gaining seats might go.  Saskatchewan should be interesting as if they scrap those rural/urban ridings that could make things a lot more competitive.  Also in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, I suspect the rural ones will get larger and the St. John's and Halifax ones smaller which is good news from the NDP, somewhat bad news for the Tories, and really bad news for Liberals (I wouldn't be surprised if Cape Breton-Canso is more evently split between Cape Breton Island and Mainland Nova Scotia in which case the Tories would then have a legitimate shot at picking it up).  By the same token if South Shore-St. Margaret's takes in more of the outskirts of the greater Halifax, that would increase the odds of the NDP (or Liberals if they stage a comeback) winning it.

[mileslunn]

It will be interesting to see how they turnout.  While a lot can change between now and the next election in terms of voting preferences at least the 2011 results can be used as a base point.  Off course the polls have already changed a fair bit and almost certainly will again between now and 2015.

[mileslunn]

any idea when the other maritime provinces will release their proposals? i'm looking to see NS and NB... from a purely how-can-the-ndp-benefit side of things

Looking at purely population shifts, I would say neither will result in the NDP getting more seats purely using the 2011 results.  However, in the case of Nova Scotia, Halifax is the area where the population is growing thus the ridings will likely become smaller making them even safer for the NDP.  CN, CCMV, and SSSM will probably pretrude even further into the Halifax RM thus making them slightly more favourable for the NDP although in the case of CN and CCMV they have a pretty large gap to overcome.  Central Nova has in the past provincially and federally been more favourable to the NDP thus the gap will be a little easier to overcome than in CCMV which has pretty much always gone heavily Tory.  South Shore-St. Margaret's would be an NDP target regardless of riding changes but I doubt they will be dramatic enough to put the NDP ahead using the 2011 results; maybe with the 2008 results though.

As for New Brunswick, unless heavily gerrymandered highly unlikely.  An 8 point deficit was the closest they came in any riding they lost so unlikely the riding changes will put them on top.  Nonetheless I could see two ridings which would be somewhat more favourable.  Moncton-Dieppe (otherwise add the Dieppe portion in Beausejour while remove Riverview) would make it a three way race, while in the case of Saint John if they chopped off the Rothesay and Quismapsis sections it would narrow the gap somewhat although the Tories would still have a 14-15 point lead using the 2011 results, but not the 19 point lead they had in the riding, thus making it a more realistic target rather than a long shot one. 

[mileslunn]

I wonder what the transposed votes would be.  In the case of Miramichi I know the Conservatives would have won it, but would have they cracked the 50% mark like they did in 2011 are fallen below.  Also in Moncton-Riverview the Conservatives would have done better but how much.  Likewise in Fredericton it would be interesting to see the numbers not just for 2011 but also 2008 as it might have stayed Liberal or at least been a lot closer in that election.  The Conservatives still would have won it handidly, but unlike 2011, a think a united left could win under the new boundaries whereas under the old boundaries it would be a lot harder.  As for the boundary changes, I've noticed elections Canada does everything possible to ensure the winner doesn't change thus why they were cautious here.  If the winner changes then there is the risk of being accused of gerrymandering although no matter how you draw up the boundaries it wouldn't be possible to have the Conservatives win every seat and they would win the majority either way while the Liberals and the NDP at best would win 2 no matter how drawn up.

[mileslunn]

In terms of Nova Scotia, I wonder how Cape Breton-Canso would have gone as I still think the Liberals would have won it, but it would have been closer as usually Cape Breton Island goes Liberal, but the mainland goes Tory and with Cape Breton Island losing people and this being the Liberals strongest part of the province, this is not good news for them.  As for the other ridings, I think the Tories still would have taken South Shore-St. Margaret's in 2011, but it might have gone NDP in 2008 as that election was a bit closer.  Either way it will be battleground no matter which way it went.  A lot will depend on the national numbers as well as also is the NDP still in power provincially and are they an asset or liability.  Generally I have noticed in the majority or not all cases, the party in power provincially usually hurts its federal counterpart unless off course the premier is really popular in which it helps them.

[mileslunn]

Im surprised that in the past there was no appeal to try and keep 2 ridings entirely on Cape Breton due to community of interest. It doesn't make sense to have a riding cross the Strait like that.

I don't think they have much choice as Cape Breton Island in terms of population would be way too small for two ridings.  Even one and half is pushing it if you ask me.  More like it should be 1 and a quarter if it were truly representative.

[mileslunn]

On the whole not exactly good for the NDP, although I wouldn't say it totally favours the Tories.  If the Liberals do a bit better than the last election it could work in their favour too.  Kitchener Centre and Waterloo both look more favourable to the Liberals and also Mississauga seems to be a mix with Mississauga South and Mississauga-Erin Mills being more favourable for the Conservatives but Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga Centre, and Mississauga North look more favourable for the Liberals.  I agree neither of the new ridings taking in Oshawa look very good for the NDP.  As for Welland it is true both would have gone Tory in the last election, though I would say Malcolm Allen would probably be best to run in Welland-Fort Erie as that is at least winneable albeit an uphill battle.  Fort Erie is generally a Tory stronghold, but of the three municipalities in the current riding of Niagara Falls, it is probably the most NDP friendly while Wainfleet is already part of riding so even with its strong Conservative support, the NDP can still win.  Off course Niagara West is a solid Tory riding.  As for Ottawa and Hamilton, the re-distribution makes some sense as they seemed to have tried to separate the suburban from rural parts.

[mileslunn]

The BC numbers sure look slanted towards the Conservatives and seem to crack a number of NDP ridings.  That is not to say there aren't a number of competitive NDP ridings they can pick up, but overall I would say the map definitely gives the Conservatives a bigger advantage than under the older map.  It would be interesting to see the 2006 and 2004 numbers when the Liberals were still competitive in BC to see whether it hurts or helps them.  Off course unless the Liberals make a recovery there which is a really big if, it doesn't matter too much.  Likewise it would be interesting to see the effect on the Green Party in numbers too since despite the fact beyond Elizabeth May's riding the Greens stand almost no chance of winning anymore ridings, but still if they were to ever make a breakthrough in any province, it would probably be BC, but the chances of that are worse than the Leafs winning the stanley cup.

[mileslunn]

Don't know they can do much here, but it seems the BC re-distribution was heavily tilted in favour of the Tories as the NDP would have won fewer seats despite new seats being added.  Off course too there is the incumbency as well as the amount of resources the party puts in so it is quite possible in ridings the NDP knew they had no chance of winning they just didn't bother putting anything into them thus meaning no matter how you re-drew the map it would favour the Tories, albeit I don't totally buy it. 

As for Quebec, I think if you use the 2006 and 2008 election results you can see it was badly drawn up when you consider especially on the Island of Montreal they combined a couple of staunchly separtist areas with staunchly federalist ones.  The 2011 election masked this as the NDP was able to appeal to both separtists and federalists but still for the sake of community they probably should be separated.

[mileslunn]

The Ontario one seems to have a lot of weird shapes, looks like a fair bit of gerrymandering.  Anybody able to find out what the results were last election in the various ridings.  I would rather stick with the one before that didn't have the weird shapes. 

Anyways when are the final ones released.