Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[DL]

The proboem with Ibbitson's analysis is that it makes the assumption that the result of the 2015 election will be the same as the results of the 2011 election. On paper it might look like all those new 905 seats would go Tory...but the Tories won a lot of those seats narrowly and in the Ontario provincial election 905 went totally Liberal (plus the NDP breakthrough in Bramalea-Gore-Malton).

[DL]

Its worth noting that one of the fatest growing ridings in Canada is Trinity-Spadina - up 25% since 2006!! Seems like a no-brainer that a new riding will have to be created in downtown TO.

[DL]

Ok, well Avalon has become a safe Conservative seat. The area it lost along Trinity Bay is quite Liberal and the area it gains is NDP now, but without Jack Harris on the ballot will vote Tory
 

I don't think we can make any assumptions. In the last election, the NDP just had a name on the ballot and had no active campaign at all in Avalon. Now that the two St. john's seats have become such NDP strongholds I think it's almost certain that in 2015 the NDP will put Avalon high on the target list and pour resources in. The finger of territory that Avalon gains from Harris' seat is small in area, but I wonder how many voters it has?

[DL]

Provincial election patterns don't tell us much about federal voting in Newfoundland. The ories won almost every single seat in the province provincially yet they are totally shut out of Newfoundland in the federal election just six months earlier.

[DL]

I think the main correlation for the NDP in Newfoundland is that when they actively campaign and target a riding - they tend to do very well. In Burin-Placentia West the NDP took 47% of the vote and lost by just 40 votes. Right next door in the demographically identical riding of Grand Banks - the NDP took just 2% of the vote. Similarly the NDP came out of no where to win in The Straights-White Bay North on the great northern peninsula, but in the neighbouring ridings support was in single digits. So while there is clearly an NDP stronghold in inner St. John's that tends to weaken the further you get from the city centre, in the rest of the province its very volatile and all it takes is for the NDP to run a respected local figure and put in some organization and they can suddenly be very ciompetitive.

[DL]

Good point, By that measure, the party could theoretically win all 7 ridings.

Believe it or not the NDP has actually been very competitive at least once in almost every riding in Newfoundland. In 1979 the party won a riding on the west coast of Newfoundland and came very close to winning Grand Falls White Bay-Labrador. In 1997 the NDP came within 400 votes of winning Bonavista-Trinity-Conception and in 2004 Rev. Des McGrath got almost 40% of the vote in Burin-Random-St. George. The NDP usually wins ridings that have LOW incomes. In NL, you have a bit of a reverse situation where the NDP won both St. John's seats - which are actually by far the wealthiest ridings in the province - but they were not competitive in the rural seats. I think the only reason the NDP didn't do better in rural NL is that they didn't campaign at all and put all there efforts into winning the two urban seats. it will be a very different situation in 2015 after 4 years of the provincial NDP having 5 seats and vastly more resources and the federal party being the official opposition. The only thing that makes any seats in NL "unwinnable" for the NDP is the presence of an incumbent Liberal MP who has some incredible local following - in which case we have to wait until they retire. I have also heard rumours that if the Liberals are in disarray in 2015 and dawdling along at 15% in the polls - a couple of Liberal MPs from NL may quit the Liberal caucus and seek NDP nominations for the general election.

[DL]

The map probably doesn't make a huge amount of change in temr sof what party holds what seat. Moncton may be slightly better for the Tories now, but if the NDP comes on strong in 2015 - Fredericton could be more winnable now that ist almost totally urban.

[DL]

The new proposed BC map has been posted

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=bc&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

Looks like some very messy stuff in vancouver!

[DL]

Have fun with it Hatman - it looks like quite a dog's breakfast!

[DL]

Don't you think Vancouver-Granville is a good example of the kind of riding the reduced Liberal Party could win given that it will have a lot of "too smart to vote Tory, too rich to vote NDP" types in it?

[DL]

Quadra is named after Juan Quadra the Spanish explorer

[DL]

There is also the possibility that Wai Young the Tory MP in Vancouver South might flee increasingly marginal Vancouver South and run in Vancouver Granville setting the stage for a CPC-NDP battle in Vancouver South as the Liberal vote there would likely collapse to single digits with no Ujjal Dosanjh running as the incumbent

[DL]

The new proposed Alberta map is out
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=ab&document=index&lang=e

Looks like the newly renamed Edmonton East may be more NDP winnable than it was before.

[DL]

E-Greisbach does look like it could be more favourable to the NDP with the addition of Calder and favourable prov. NDP areas. My thoughts are Ray Martin might be tapped out (age and his what 3 recent election losses) the NDP would need a stellar candidate here to win, and probably need the incumbent not to run.

FYI, The Tory MP for Edmonton East (soon to be renamed Greisbach) is that Peter Goldring character who got expelled from the Tory caucus after being charged with drunk driving. He is now sitting as an independent. There is almost zero chance that he will run again.

[DL]

As for Foucaulf's Horizontal split idea in vancouver, interesting. I haven't heard this option before. You go from 1 Liberal and 1 Tory favourable ridings to 2 Lib-Con battle ridings.

Actually if they did that "horizontal split" you would have a riding made up of the southern parts of vancouver-Quadra and vancouver Granville that would be a Tory/Liberal tossup which would be an almost purely upper class old money riding. The northern half would not be such a foregone conclusion. I think that if you create a riding that including Fairview and Kitsilano and over to UBC you get a seat where with the right candidate the NDP could be very competitive. This would be a federal seat largely made up of the provincial seats of Point-Grey and Fairview...both have gone NDP in the past and both are almost certain to go NDP next May...Christy Clark barely won a byelection in Point Grey last year when she was at the height of her honeymoon bounce!

[DL]

I guess it boils down to whether the NDP has a better chance at winning Granville as currently configured as opposed to winning a riding composed of the northern halves of Granville and Quadra

[DL]

And here's Nova Scotia: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=ns&dir=media&document=jul1212&lang=e

Not much change in Nova Scotia but at first glance, i think that Dartmouth-Cole Harbour becomes a safer NDP seat and Sackville becomes less safe (though still very safe). I suspect that South Shore St. Margaret's annexes some NDP leaning territory that used to be in Halifax West.

[DL]

NS - as we thought, really just shrinking of the ridings areound Halifax, enlarging the rest of the ridings in Rural NS.

Sackville - Porters Lake: Loses Musquodoboit which voted NDP, but gains in N.Dartmouth, which was more mixed Lib/NDP. With Stoffer still running, and much of that vote probably midlt solid Liberal (part of Dart. East provincially that went Liberal) its more competative but still NDP.

Halifax West: Where did it go! lol, lost everything south of the 103hwy, removing quite a few NDP and tory polls, i could be wrong but it looks to be safer for the Liberals now, as its more focused on Halifax(Rockingham) and Bedford which are strongly Liberal. A good target for the NDP but the Liberals will be desperate to keep it.

South Shore-St.Marg. : Gains the polls from Halifax west (around Shad Bay) a mix of NDP and Tory Polls... Also losses some area around Barrington out in Shelbourne which was tory. Still a battle between the NDP/Tories... could swing with whoever becomes gov't i think.

Capre Breton-Canso: grew to include some of St. Marys which looks tory, might be a tad more competative for the tories now

Central Nova: Gains Musquodoboit valley from Cumberland-Colchester... meaning maybe half-a dozen NDP polls are now included in the riding while it lost a few Tory polls. Still probably safe but MacKay's star is rusting nationally and a good NDP candidate might, just maybe knock-him out.

All in all the NDP could potentially gain two-three ridings here (SSst.M and Halifax west, maybe even Central Nova but the last two will be harder to win; the first being a three way the other being already strongly tory)

Am I correct that Sackville also loses a chunk of terriroty to Dartmouth that is solidly NDP making Robert Chisholm much safer?

[DL]

and the prov. riding of Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage is safe NDP i think, so Robert who was safe before is even safer.

No kidding, isn't that Dexter's riding?

[DL]

For the sake of "community of interest" why not have one purely urban Cape Breton seat that would be Sydney, North Sydney, Glace Bay and New Waterford and then let all of rural Cape Breton be a separate riding along with a chunk of the mainland. The fact is "industrial Cape Breton" really is a world apart from the rural areas which have more in common with the rural mainland.

[DL]

Why can't they simply add a bit more of Halifax to SSSM and give a bit more of SSSM to West Nova and thereby equalize the populations and make SSSM even more of a "rurban" seat?

[DL]

West Nova is already about 90%+ anglophone isn't it? The Acadian community is a teeny-weeny area of that seat.

[DL]

I think John Peters Humphrey could be winnable for the NDP once Cotler retires and the NDP nominates someone with strong credentials in the Jewish community and then gets the anti-Conservative vote to coalesce behind the NDP.

[DL]

I expect Maria Mourani to be annhilated in 2015...it was s fluke that she was one of the four BQ survivors (in a super tight three way race) given that Ahuntsic was actually one of their most marginal seats in 06 and 08! She is actually a very non-descript incumbent and with a penniless BQ barely showing a pulse in 2015 - if the NDP nominates anyone remotely good - she will be blown away like dust in the wind. There are a lot of non-francophones in that riding and in an NDP-BQ two way race - the NDP would win easily.

[DL]

If we can name ridings after Maurice Richard and Wayne Gretzky, why not rename Saskatoon-Blackstrap - "Gordie Howe"