Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

I hate how the media is stating how it is definite that X province will be getting X seats when this passes without any mention of the formula or even the census.

Anyways, this will come in handy when I start doing my proposals in February.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've never seen them use estimates before; it's always been population. I think the legislation allows for estimates now, though. I think they will still use the census for dividing up the individual provinces though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Census results released tomorrow. OMG OMG OMG can't wait!!!!!1111oneoneone

[Hatman 🍁]

ITS HERE:

Canada    33,476,688
Newfoundland and Labrador    514,536
Prince Edward Island    140,204
Nova Scotia    921,727
New Brunswick    751,171
Quebec    7,903,001
Ontario    12,851,821
Manitoba    1,208,268
Saskatchewan    1,033,381
Alberta    3,645,257
British Columbia    4,400,057
Yukon    33,897
Northwest Territories    41,462
Nunavut    31,906

[Hatman 🍁]

Population by riding:

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&T=501&PR=0&SR=1&S=3&O=D

[Hatman 🍁]

Possibly. Will make proposal maps when I get some time. Anyone else is welcome to do so, of course. I'll post anyone's maps on my blog if they want me to

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed how large Trinity-Spadina got as well. Toronto-Danforth barely increased, though. I was noticing as I was going through the census tracts for my demo maps, that a lot of them had lost population between 2001 and 2006.

Anyways, nice to see some large NDP ridings, hopefully they have babies; Smaller, NDP ridings!   But, we all know the Tories will benefit the most.

Im hoping Northern Ontario keeps their 10 ridings, but I'm not sure... I see Kenora took a real hit. I guess it would be ok to get rid of that riding, since its Tory, but I know that wont happen unless they do something weird in the northwest.

[Hatman 🍁]

Go ahead Smid. I'm going to be too busy these evening to do anything I will stay up late though to make some proposal maps. I think I'll start with Ottawa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was amazed to see how large St. John's East has gotten.

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

Vancouver Centre is going to be interesting, given that it's on a peninsula. It's about a third over-populated compared to the BC average, so it will have to retract quite considerably and lose quite a bit around the southern end of the riding, I would suspect (unless they carve off the top and link it with North Vancouver or something strange like that). I think the incumbent does best in the South, so it will be interesting to see what happens there... will there be a new seat based on Southern Vancouver Centre/Western Vancouver East/Eastern Vancouver Quadra and Northwestern Vancouver Kingsway?

ooh, so much fun we're going to have, eh?

[Hatman 🍁]

Would be nice to win another seat in Vancouver. I reckon that a smaller Vancouver Centre could go for us.

[Hatman 🍁]

RE Northern Ontario: Not sure if the Tories will want to lose Kenora, as they hold it. The NDP seats in the north don't seem to be too much in jeopardy. BTW, provincially N.O. has 11 seats, not 10.

[Hatman 🍁]

RE Northern Ontario: Not sure if the Tories will want to lose Kenora, as they hold it. The NDP seats in the north don't seem to be too much in jeopardy. BTW, provincially N.O. has 11 seats, not 10.

Ah christmas your right, sorry about that.

So the Globe and CBC have great maps too...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/census-2011-interactive-how-does-your-community-compare/article2326514/
They are showing which census tracts have negative growth

You had me looking for census tracts, but remember there is a difference between CTs and census subdivisions which this map shows.

[Hatman 🍁]

CSD = municipalities
CT = basically neighbourhoods

[Hatman 🍁]

oh nevermind, you have to zoom in further to get the CTs. Sorry!

[Hatman 🍁]

Great find! This is going to make making maps so much easier than using the clunky geosearch site.

[Hatman 🍁]

By the way, there is no reason for Northern Ontario to lose seats. The provincial quotient went down by a higher percentage than the population loss of Northern Ontario. The average riding in Ontario will be 1.3% smaller than the last redistribution, while Northern Ontario went down just 0.8%. However, the reason for the worry is that Northern Ontario went down 1.3% from 2006. This is because Northern Ontario actually grew beween 2001 and 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm starting with Ottawa

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Ottawa: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/census-results-released-and-my-riding.html

Suggestions for my next proposal? Don't say Quebec either, because I can't do the whole province at once. Keep a region down to less than 15 ridings, I'd say.

[Hatman 🍁]

Okay, here's Winnipeg: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/my-riding-boundary-proposal-for.html

[Hatman 🍁]

If possible, could you mention whether redistricting produces a swing one way or another in the riding? A version of PVI if you will.  Ferex, will Lamoureux's Winnipeg North become slightly more red or orange?

Since I forgot to do it with Ottawa, I thought I'd be consistent and not do it with Winnipeg. But, maybe I should think about it.

As for Winnipeg North, my plan would make it more friendly for Lamoureux (however, the NDP could still win it). It loses the strongest NDP areas in the southeast. The new gains could make it worse, but they are the strongest NDP areas of Kildonan--St. Paul. Seven Oaks was NDP, and I would be adding it to Winnipeg North.

Winnipeg Centre would lose some of its Tory areas, and with gaining some strong NDP areas from WN, it would become even more super safe for Pat Martin. The Liberals would fall even further in Winnipeg South Centre, and I can tell you that is inevitable anyways. Linden Park is almost assured of being added, and it voted Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

As for Ottawa, the new riding would of course be a Tory one.

Orleans looks like it would become slightly more Conservative, but I could be wrong. But, BHS and BH seem to be more Liberal than the rest of the riding (sorry, Hash!). However, adding BHS makes Ottawa-Vanier more Tory, and less NDP. Good news for the Liberals.  Ottawa South also becomes more Liberal friendly, because Blossom Park is a good area for the Tories. Also, FWIW, Crystal Bay went Conservative, so OWN might be less Tory friendly. Only matters provincially at this point.

Provincially, none of my changes would swing any of the ridings. The PCs would gain one, of course. I really hope they take off Carleton Heights and Carlingwood from Ottawa Centre though, even though I didn't even make that proposal.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm working on Toronto right now. I'm going to keep Etobicoke with 3 districts, and I'm going to give Scarborough 1/2 district more to make it an even six.  I've finished the map for the rest of the city. Basically, I've split the 2 Don Valley ridings into 3, and moved everything out from there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Would Vancouver Island be doable, Mr. Hatman?

I'll add it to my list

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm very excited about Toronto and Vancouver... How about SW ON (Hamilton and west of it)? Windsor-Essex-Chatham-Kent area also saw population decreases so there might be some movement there?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/story/2012/02/13/sby-gravelle-bill.html
Looks like the NDP is going to try and make sure N.ON keeps its 10 seats... which brings us to another point, are there other provinces who wish to have regions protected from losing seats? are there any regions that will (or should) lose seats?

As I said before, there is no reason for Northern Ontario to lose seats. The population went down by a lower percentage than the provincial quotient.