2011 White Christmas forecast thread

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Figured this could be fun - if anybody wants to know if you'll likely have a white Christmas, post here and I'll do my best to answer.  Although, anybody south of the Mason-Dixon line, don't worry about asking.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm south of the Mason-Dixon line in Oklahoma, and at noon our meteorologist started pointing ahead to Christmas weekend and said right now it looks cool and dry.  That is just fine with me as we just had a White Christmas 2 years ago under that Christmas Eve/Christmas Morning 2009 Blizzard.  It's the week before Christmas 2011 that is supposed to be stormy.  We are expecting an inch or two of still much needed rain on Monday.  We might have a few flakes of snow Tuesday morning as the cold air starts rushing in just as the storm system starts pulling out.

[Ban my account ffs!]

How about you give a probability for Bemidji, Minnesota? 

The average chance for a white Christmas here is 95%.  It looks like a 5% year this year (I guess if the pathetic half inch of snow we have doesn't melt before Christmas.. unlikely... then it could technically be a white Christmas)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I give Bemidji, Minnesota a 5% chance.

Also, I'm using the National Weather Service's definition of 1" of snow on the ground regardless of if it fell on Christmas Day as my definition.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I give Bemidji, Minnesota a 5% chance.

Also, I'm using the National Weather Service's definition of 1" of snow on the ground regardless of if it fell on Christmas Day as my definition.

Oh, I think that should be the real definition.. snow on the ground on Christmas.  The chances of snow falling on Christmas are much much lower for any given place...

Christmas 2009 was awesome.. a huge snowstorm arrived mid-day on Christmas Eve day and lasted until the 27th... it made it feel so Christmasy. 

In any case, as long as it's not warm.  There's nothing more depressing than a warm, sunny, snowless brown Christmas day in my opinion.  Sorry Australia!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While I am surprised who started this thread, I'm not by who was the first to respond.  And I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

[Hatman 🍁]

What about Ottawa? I think I can only remember 1 green Christmas in my life. Could be another this year. It was 10 C (50F) today, a record temperature.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

While I am surprised who started this thread, I'm not by who was the first to respond.  And I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What about Ottawa? I think I can only remember 1 green Christmas in my life. Could be another this year. It was 10 C (50F) today, a record temperature.

70%.  Ottawa the city has a lesser chance than the suburbs due to urban heat island effects.  You guys should have had a fair amount of snow before the warm up (looks like around 3 inches on the ground), but I'm guessing that melted today.  Some showers coming in the next week, but whether it'll actually get to an inch will be what we have to wait to see.

[Leftbehind]

Middlesbrough - North East, England, UK.

[Hatman 🍁]

What about Ottawa? I think I can only remember 1 green Christmas in my life. Could be another this year. It was 10 C (50F) today, a record temperature.

70%.  Ottawa the city has a lesser chance than the suburbs due to urban heat island effects.  You guys should have had a fair amount of snow before the warm up (looks like around 3 inches on the ground), but I'm guessing that melted today.  Some showers coming in the next week, but whether it'll actually get to an inch will be what we have to wait to see.

We haven't had any lasting snow this season, actually. Certainly not as much as 3 inches. Any snow we've got so far melted within a couple of days.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Middlesbrough - North East, England, UK.

0.000000000001%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What about Ottawa? I think I can only remember 1 green Christmas in my life. Could be another this year. It was 10 C (50F) today, a record temperature.

70%.  Ottawa the city has a lesser chance than the suburbs due to urban heat island effects.  You guys should have had a fair amount of snow before the warm up (looks like around 3 inches on the ground), but I'm guessing that melted today.  Some showers coming in the next week, but whether it'll actually get to an inch will be what we have to wait to see.

We haven't had any lasting snow this season, actually. Certainly not as much as 3 inches. Any snow we've got so far melted within a couple of days.

I see that now.  I was looking at the wrong spot on the map... not sure what I did, because when you posted that, I went to recheck and immediately saw no reported snow from the models.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

By the way, Snowguy and Naso, if you disagree with any of my forecasts, feel free to chime in.

[Tender Branson]

About a 80% chance. There's currently about 5 inches here and a little more snow should be underway this weekend/next week.

[Leftbehind]

It's snowing outside lol.

[MaxQue]

How a green Chirstmas feels like? Never had one and doubt I'll ever have one.

[Hatman 🍁]

How a green Chirstmas feels like? Never had one and doubt I'll ever have one.

Will you be going up into the northlands for Christmas? Because Montreal may have a green Xmas this year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

[Ban my account ffs!]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

Way back in the day such things were not unheard of.  I believe it was the winter of 1783/84 in which New Jersey had 3-4 feet of snow on the ground for several months and the Mississippi River froze all the way to New Orleans.  Granted that followed a blistering hot summer in which the sun was hardly visible because of a nasty sulfurous volcanic eruption in Iceland... but places that almost never see white Christmases were probably seeing white Halloweens that year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Well, absent a similar volcanic winter, it ain't ever going to happen here, and it's too late for it to happen this ear even if a volcano were to blow its top.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The likely green Christmas here seems very bizarre, though the current forecast actually has it snowing on Christmas Day.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

That's simply not true.  All you'd have to have is the right pattern to get it to happen.  I'm not saying it's likely to happen, but it could happen.

[Hash]

Montreal?

I'll be out of town for Christmas (thankfully).

[ZuWo]

Zurich, Switzerland, please. If you cover this part of Europe.