Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 31, 2014, 05:15:27 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 Print
Author Topic: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map  (Read 11989 times)
I'm JewCon in name only.
Klecly
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 922
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.61, S: 6.52

View Profile
« Reply #100 on: February 23, 2012, 10:24:54 pm »
Ignore

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #101 on: February 23, 2012, 10:34:42 pm »
Ignore

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.
Logged


I'm JewCon in name only.
Klecly
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 922
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.61, S: 6.52

View Profile
« Reply #102 on: February 23, 2012, 10:40:28 pm »
Ignore

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.

It's under 60% McCain? Than he should be golden imo.
Logged

nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8832


View Profile
« Reply #103 on: February 23, 2012, 11:53:24 pm »
Ignore

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #104 on: February 24, 2012, 12:06:30 am »
Ignore

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.
Logged


Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4045
United States


View Profile
« Reply #105 on: February 24, 2012, 12:27:45 am »
Ignore

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.

BTW I corrected the Pennsylvania map.  A couple districts were a little bit connected.  




Sorry for the trouble.  Sad
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 12:31:07 am by Fuzzy »Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #106 on: February 24, 2012, 12:52:49 am »
Ignore

Fuzzy, you still have a broken line between PA-03 and PA-05.

I've fixed it. lol
Logged


Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29907
United States


View Profile
« Reply #107 on: February 24, 2012, 12:53:31 am »
Ignore

Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP? Tongue
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #108 on: February 24, 2012, 01:02:44 am »
Ignore

Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP? Tongue

Yes. I think I had most of the GOP incumbents in CA safe except for Miller and Lungren (who's in a tossup against Bera).
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #109 on: February 24, 2012, 04:07:10 am »
Ignore

This is what I have so far for Presidential results.

A quick note about the colors. I added a >55% color interval to distinguish the marginal districts; this changed the color scheme up a bit. I'm using the >30% color for >40% districts, the >40% color for >50% districts and the >50% color for >55% districts. Other than that, the darker colors are the same.



I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 04:25:14 am by MilesC56 »Logged


only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #110 on: February 24, 2012, 05:21:05 am »
Ignore

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12699


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: February 24, 2012, 05:52:21 am »
Ignore

I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?

What I heard was that it was very nearly tied and absent an Arizona Republican candidate might be thought more likely than not to go for Obama relative to the rest of Arizona.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #112 on: February 24, 2012, 10:18:36 am »
Ignore

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 10:20:23 am by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #113 on: February 24, 2012, 06:23:47 pm »
Ignore



Obama- 168
McCain- 154

Once all the districts are drawn, I think Obama should have in the neighborhood of 225-230.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 06:28:52 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8832


View Profile
« Reply #114 on: February 24, 2012, 06:38:36 pm »
Ignore

Good work, Miles. I especially like the 55% gradient.

Have Petri's CD and Wolf's CD been confirmed for Obama and McCain respectively? (They're both listed as tied). I think Mich.'s UP is still Obama.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #115 on: February 24, 2012, 06:45:45 pm »
Ignore

Here's where I got some of the states.

Yes, Petri is still Obama. They bumped Wolfe up to 50/50 McCain.

Yes, you're right. Benishek is still has an Obama district.

I'm still not entirely sure about AZ-02 and KS-03.
Logged


Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4045
United States


View Profile
« Reply #116 on: February 24, 2012, 07:16:30 pm »
Ignore

Great work, as usual.  Smiley
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4045
United States


View Profile
« Reply #117 on: February 24, 2012, 11:24:02 pm »
Ignore

How about New York?  Where are we on that?
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #118 on: February 25, 2012, 04:25:20 am »
Ignore

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.


Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #119 on: February 25, 2012, 12:11:55 pm »
Ignore

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.


Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.

Duh....

Thats why I posted 2 types of maps.
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #120 on: February 25, 2012, 10:11:00 pm »
Ignore

If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.
Logged


Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4045
United States


View Profile
« Reply #121 on: February 25, 2012, 11:19:09 pm »
Ignore

If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.

I'm on it. 
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #122 on: February 26, 2012, 04:50:11 pm »
Ignore

New Hampshire

Republican leaders in the House are standing together in an attempt to quash dissension in their party regarding the new map. The House delegation from Manchester said they oppose the plan as they believe it could cost the city two representatives. To that end, they agreed to sustain a veto by Gov. John Lynch (D) that they believe will occur. In response, a five-page letter blasting critics of the plan and signed by over 40 Republican House members was sent out to all members of the chamber. The House previously passed the bill by a vote of 205-68, but it must now pass the Senate, who is not expected to vote on it until next month.

On the congressional side, U.S. Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Charlie Bass (R) must have their districts balanced--their two districts are about 200-300 individuals apart. That has reportedly led to a long internal party fight behind-the-scenes. Republican leaders and Guinta are said to want minimal changes, while Bass is seeking to add a number of Republican towns to his district, including Merrimack, Hampstead and Plaistow.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15787
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #123 on: February 26, 2012, 05:00:46 pm »
Ignore

Sigh...moving 200-300 people shouldn't be that hard...
Logged


Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4045
United States


View Profile
« Reply #124 on: February 26, 2012, 05:30:37 pm »
Ignore

Florida added

Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines