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Author Topic: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map  (Read 10409 times)
I'm JewCon in name only.
Klecly
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« Reply #100 on: February 23, 2012, 10:24:54 pm »
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I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.
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Miles
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« Reply #101 on: February 23, 2012, 10:34:42 pm »
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I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.
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I'm JewCon in name only.
Klecly
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« Reply #102 on: February 23, 2012, 10:40:28 pm »
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I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.

It's under 60% McCain? Than he should be golden imo.
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nclib
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« Reply #103 on: February 23, 2012, 11:53:24 pm »
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Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?
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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Miles
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« Reply #104 on: February 24, 2012, 12:06:30 am »
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Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.
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FBF
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« Reply #105 on: February 24, 2012, 12:27:45 am »
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Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.

BTW I corrected the Pennsylvania map.  A couple districts were a little bit connected.  




Sorry for the trouble.  Sad
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 12:31:07 am by Fuzzy »Logged
Miles
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« Reply #106 on: February 24, 2012, 12:52:49 am »
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Fuzzy, you still have a broken line between PA-03 and PA-05.

I've fixed it. lol
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #107 on: February 24, 2012, 12:53:31 am »
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Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP? Tongue
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Miles
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« Reply #108 on: February 24, 2012, 01:02:44 am »
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Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP? Tongue

Yes. I think I had most of the GOP incumbents in CA safe except for Miller and Lungren (who's in a tossup against Bera).
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #109 on: February 24, 2012, 04:07:10 am »
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This is what I have so far for Presidential results.

A quick note about the colors. I added a >55% color interval to distinguish the marginal districts; this changed the color scheme up a bit. I'm using the >30% color for >40% districts, the >40% color for >50% districts and the >50% color for >55% districts. Other than that, the darker colors are the same.



I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 04:25:14 am by MilesC56 »Logged

farewell
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« Reply #110 on: February 24, 2012, 05:21:05 am »
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The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
asexual trans victimologist
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« Reply #111 on: February 24, 2012, 05:52:21 am »
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I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?

What I heard was that it was very nearly tied and absent an Arizona Republican candidate might be thought more likely than not to go for Obama relative to the rest of Arizona.
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A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #112 on: February 24, 2012, 10:18:36 am »
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The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 10:20:23 am by MilesC56 »Logged

Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #113 on: February 24, 2012, 06:23:47 pm »
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Obama- 168
McCain- 154

Once all the districts are drawn, I think Obama should have in the neighborhood of 225-230.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 06:28:52 pm by MilesC56 »Logged

nclib
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« Reply #114 on: February 24, 2012, 06:38:36 pm »
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Good work, Miles. I especially like the 55% gradient.

Have Petri's CD and Wolf's CD been confirmed for Obama and McCain respectively? (They're both listed as tied). I think Mich.'s UP is still Obama.
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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Miles
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« Reply #115 on: February 24, 2012, 06:45:45 pm »
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Here's where I got some of the states.

Yes, Petri is still Obama. They bumped Wolfe up to 50/50 McCain.

Yes, you're right. Benishek is still has an Obama district.

I'm still not entirely sure about AZ-02 and KS-03.
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FBF
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« Reply #116 on: February 24, 2012, 07:16:30 pm »
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Great work, as usual.  Smiley
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FBF
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #117 on: February 24, 2012, 11:24:02 pm »
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How about New York?  Where are we on that?
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farewell
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #118 on: February 25, 2012, 04:25:20 am »
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The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.


Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #119 on: February 25, 2012, 12:11:55 pm »
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The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.


Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.

Duh....

Thats why I posted 2 types of maps.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #120 on: February 25, 2012, 10:11:00 pm »
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If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.
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FBF
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #121 on: February 25, 2012, 11:19:09 pm »
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If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.

I'm on it. 
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farewell
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #122 on: February 26, 2012, 04:50:11 pm »
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New Hampshire

Republican leaders in the House are standing together in an attempt to quash dissension in their party regarding the new map. The House delegation from Manchester said they oppose the plan as they believe it could cost the city two representatives. To that end, they agreed to sustain a veto by Gov. John Lynch (D) that they believe will occur. In response, a five-page letter blasting critics of the plan and signed by over 40 Republican House members was sent out to all members of the chamber. The House previously passed the bill by a vote of 205-68, but it must now pass the Senate, who is not expected to vote on it until next month.

On the congressional side, U.S. Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Charlie Bass (R) must have their districts balanced--their two districts are about 200-300 individuals apart. That has reportedly led to a long internal party fight behind-the-scenes. Republican leaders and Guinta are said to want minimal changes, while Bass is seeking to add a number of Republican towns to his district, including Merrimack, Hampstead and Plaistow.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #123 on: February 26, 2012, 05:00:46 pm »
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Sigh...moving 200-300 people shouldn't be that hard...
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FBF
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #124 on: February 26, 2012, 05:30:37 pm »
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Florida added

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