Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

[MilesC56]

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.

It's under 60% McCain? Than he should be golden imo.

[nclib]

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

[MilesC56]

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.

[Fuzzy]

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.

BTW I corrected the Pennsylvania map.  A couple districts were a little bit connected.  




Sorry for the trouble. 

[MilesC56]

Fuzzy, you still have a broken line between PA-03 and PA-05.

I've fixed it. lol

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP?

[MilesC56]

Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP?

Yes. I think I had most of the GOP incumbents in CA safe except for Miller and Lungren (who's in a tossup against Bera).

[MilesC56]

This is what I have so far for Presidential results.

A quick note about the colors. I added a >55% color interval to distinguish the marginal districts; this changed the color scheme up a bit. I'm using the >30% color for >40% districts, the >40% color for >50% districts and the >50% color for >55% districts. Other than that, the darker colors are the same.



I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?

[Vasall des Midas]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

[asexual trans victimologist]

I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?

What I heard was that it was very nearly tied and absent an Arizona Republican candidate might be thought more likely than not to go for Obama relative to the rest of Arizona.

[MilesC56]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

[MilesC56]

Obama- 168
McCain- 154

Once all the districts are drawn, I think Obama should have in the neighborhood of 225-230.

[nclib]

Good work, Miles. I especially like the 55% gradient.

Have Petri's CD and Wolf's CD been confirmed for Obama and McCain respectively? (They're both listed as tied). I think Mich.'s UP is still Obama.

[MilesC56]

Here's where I got some of the states.

Yes, Petri is still Obama. They bumped Wolfe up to 50/50 McCain.

Yes, you're right. Benishek is still has an Obama district.

I'm still not entirely sure about AZ-02 and KS-03.

[Fuzzy]

Great work, as usual. 

[Fuzzy]

How about New York?  Where are we on that?

[Vasall des Midas]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.

[MilesC56]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.

Duh....

Thats why I posted 2 types of maps.

[MilesC56]

If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.

[Fuzzy]

If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.

I'm on it. 

[Vasall des Midas]

Minnesota!

What is the hangup in NH?

New Hampshire

Republican leaders in the House are standing together in an attempt to quash dissension in their party regarding the new map. The House delegation from Manchester said they oppose the plan as they believe it could cost the city two representatives. To that end, they agreed to sustain a veto by Gov. John Lynch (D) that they believe will occur. In response, a five-page letter blasting critics of the plan and signed by over 40 Republican House members was sent out to all members of the chamber. The House previously passed the bill by a vote of 205-68, but it must now pass the Senate, who is not expected to vote on it until next month.

On the congressional side, U.S. Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Charlie Bass (R) must have their districts balanced--their two districts are about 200-300 individuals apart. That has reportedly led to a long internal party fight behind-the-scenes. Republican leaders and Guinta are said to want minimal changes, while Bass is seeking to add a number of Republican towns to his district, including Merrimack, Hampstead and Plaistow.

[MilesC56]

Sigh...moving 200-300 people shouldn't be that hard...

[Fuzzy]

Florida added