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Author Topic: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map  (Read 11118 times)
Miles
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« Reply #75 on: February 13, 2012, 01:49:25 am »
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Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.
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Nathan
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« Reply #76 on: February 13, 2012, 01:52:56 am »
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Virginia added.

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Miles
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« Reply #77 on: February 13, 2012, 01:56:29 am »
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Great!
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Nathan
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« Reply #78 on: February 13, 2012, 01:59:05 am »
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Within ten days or so I should think we'll be able to say we've at least tentatively filled in everything south of Raritan Bay and west of Lake Erie.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #79 on: February 13, 2012, 04:38:31 am »
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Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Congressman Barton's interesting proposal

It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20.
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Miles
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« Reply #80 on: February 13, 2012, 04:47:28 am »
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Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Congressman Barton's interesting proposal

It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20.

The DFW districts are hideous under Barton's plan.

I hate how Travis county is cracked 5 ways with both plans Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #81 on: February 21, 2012, 04:46:02 pm »
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Minnesota!

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Klecly
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« Reply #82 on: February 21, 2012, 05:05:28 pm »
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Great job Miles! This is awesome!
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Miles
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« Reply #83 on: February 21, 2012, 08:47:03 pm »
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Here are the ratings I've come up with:



Without NY, FL and NH, the Republicans are up by 30 seats, 194-164.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #84 on: February 21, 2012, 08:47:27 pm »
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Minnesota!



What is the hangup in NH?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #85 on: February 22, 2012, 02:43:15 pm »
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Here are the ratings I've come up with:



Without NY, FL and NH, the Republicans are up by 30 seats, 194-164.

How many tossups do you have? Also I would probably put the Wisconsin 7th into the tossup group. His district was made a bit more favorable to him, but this is still predominately the same district that sent Dave Obey to Congress from 1969 to 2011, about 75%. Also Obama won the district, under the new lines, 56-43.
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Nathan
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« Reply #86 on: February 22, 2012, 02:46:38 pm »
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I count 21 tossups on Miles's map.

I agree on WI-07. All of the Lake Superior districts are pretty competitive this year (I personally tend to think Cravaack will lose and Duffy will hold on; not sure about Benishek).
« Last Edit: February 22, 2012, 02:53:18 pm by Nathan »Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Miles
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« Reply #87 on: February 22, 2012, 05:14:22 pm »
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WI-07 is actually now 53.1% Obama, down from 55.8%. The Republicans gave Kind a pass in order to shore-up Duffy. If I recall, this district wasn't very high on Steve Israel's Red-to-Blue list either. The district is still very much in Democrats' reach, but I think the DCCC is focusing its energy elsewhere. So, I'll give Duffy the benefit of the doubt here.

I do agree with Nathan that Cravaack is more likely to lose. AT the state level, WI-07 seems to be swingy, but MN-08 is reliably Democrat.

Eh, I just noticed that UT-04 should be Lean D, not Strong D. I'll have an updated map in a few weeks though.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2012, 05:16:12 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


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brittain33
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« Reply #88 on: February 22, 2012, 08:23:28 pm »
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Isn't Duffy kind of a weak incumbent? He had plenty of not-ready-for-prime-time moments in 2011. Yes, he's young and dynamic and all that but he's no Aaron Schock and he doesn't have Schock's district,
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krazen1211
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« Reply #89 on: February 23, 2012, 12:00:10 am »
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Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Congressman Barton's interesting proposal

It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20.

The DFW districts are hideous under Barton's plan.

I hate how Travis county is cracked 5 ways with both plans Tongue

What an interesting map. The Houston area still sucks for the GOP (2, 8, 36 are megapacks). They could at least make the Denton to Tarrant finger cleaner.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #90 on: February 23, 2012, 01:49:35 am »
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AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?
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Miles
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« Reply #91 on: February 23, 2012, 02:15:06 am »
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AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

Yes...

Would you care to show us your map?
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FBF
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« Reply #92 on: February 23, 2012, 04:53:44 am »
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AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

Yes...

Would you care to show us your map?

It's on!  Cheesy
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« Reply #93 on: February 23, 2012, 04:20:08 pm »
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AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

Yes...

Would you care to show us your map?

It's on!  Cheesy

Like Donkey Kong!
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« Reply #94 on: February 23, 2012, 05:30:51 pm »
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Things have now become very much like Donkey Kong.
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Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #95 on: February 23, 2012, 09:18:31 pm »
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Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Miles
MilesC56
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E: -1.42, S: 4.35

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« Reply #96 on: February 23, 2012, 09:27:09 pm »
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Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?

Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R.
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« Reply #97 on: February 23, 2012, 09:34:35 pm »
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Making my own right now, changes so far:

CO-06 - Tossup > Lean GOP Coffman seems like a reasonable guy. Obama could sink him of course, but that is the only way I see him losing. Now if Tancredo were still here, it would be strong Dem.
IA-04 - Tossup > Lean GOP  King is weak, but he is still an incumbent
ILL-06 - Lean GOP > Strong GOP Roskam is a strong GOP incumbent in a GOP pack seat
ILL-13? - Tossup > Lean GOP Need more information, but from what I read earlier, it didn't sound like things were going that well in getting Johnson ousted, but we'll see.
NV-03 - Tossup > Lean GOP Heck will have a tough race, but most of the reviews of his campaign ability I have seen are positive.
NV-04 - Lean Dem > Strong Dem I don't think the GOP is even gonna try here, not with Presidential turnout
UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty.
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« Reply #98 on: February 23, 2012, 09:39:30 pm »
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Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?

Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R.

Aside from gaining a bunch of new territory, I don't see why he would have trouble. In 2008, he got 58% in a district Obama came in around the mid 50's, now it is 51% Obama. And the new territory is Republican leaning stuff from the old 8th. I think the Dems will focus on the 8th, 10th and 11th in that area of the state, and 12th, 13th and 17th downstate.
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Miles
MilesC56
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E: -1.42, S: 4.35

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« Reply #99 on: February 23, 2012, 09:52:00 pm »
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UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty.

I should have put Matheson's district as Lean D too, instead of Safe D.
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