Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map

[MilesC56]

Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Virginia added.

[MilesC56]

Great!

[asexual trans victimologist]

Within ten days or so I should think we'll be able to say we've at least tentatively filled in everything south of Raritan Bay and west of Lake Erie.

[jimrtex]

Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Congressman Barton's interesting proposal

It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20.

[MilesC56]

Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Congressman Barton's interesting proposal

It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20.

The DFW districts are hideous under Barton's plan.

I hate how Travis county is cracked 5 ways with both plans

[MilesC56]

Minnesota!

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Great job Miles! This is awesome!

[MilesC56]

Here are the ratings I've come up with:



Without NY, FL and NH, the Republicans are up by 30 seats, 194-164.

[jimrtex]

Minnesota!

What is the hangup in NH?

[Senator Gass3268]

Here are the ratings I've come up with:



Without NY, FL and NH, the Republicans are up by 30 seats, 194-164.

How many tossups do you have? Also I would probably put the Wisconsin 7th into the tossup group. His district was made a bit more favorable to him, but this is still predominately the same district that sent Dave Obey to Congress from 1969 to 2011, about 75%. Also Obama won the district, under the new lines, 56-43.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I count 21 tossups on Miles's map.

I agree on WI-07. All of the Lake Superior districts are pretty competitive this year (I personally tend to think Cravaack will lose and Duffy will hold on; not sure about Benishek).

[MilesC56]

WI-07 is actually now 53.1% Obama, down from 55.8%. The Republicans gave Kind a pass in order to shore-up Duffy. If I recall, this district wasn't very high on Steve Israel's Red-to-Blue list either. The district is still very much in Democrats' reach, but I think the DCCC is focusing its energy elsewhere. So, I'll give Duffy the benefit of the doubt here.

I do agree with Nathan that Cravaack is more likely to lose. AT the state level, WI-07 seems to be swingy, but MN-08 is reliably Democrat.

Eh, I just noticed that UT-04 should be Lean D, not Strong D. I'll have an updated map in a few weeks though.

[Gravis Marketing]

Isn't Duffy kind of a weak incumbent? He had plenty of not-ready-for-prime-time moments in 2011. Yes, he's young and dynamic and all that but he's no Aaron Schock and he doesn't have Schock's district,

[krazen1211]

Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.

What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL

Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form.

Here's the TX plan.

I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Congressman Barton's interesting proposal

It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20.

The DFW districts are hideous under Barton's plan.

I hate how Travis county is cracked 5 ways with both plans

What an interesting map. The Houston area still sucks for the GOP (2, 8, 36 are megapacks). They could at least make the Denton to Tarrant finger cleaner.

[timothyinMD]

AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

[MilesC56]

AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

Yes...

Would you care to show us your map?

[Fuzzy]

AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

Yes...

Would you care to show us your map?

It's on! 

[Senator Gass3268]

AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem?  Hah, seriously?

Yes...

Would you care to show us your map?

It's on! 

Like Donkey Kong!

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Things have now become very much like Donkey Kong.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?

[MilesC56]

Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?

Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Making my own right now, changes so far:

CO-06 - Tossup > Lean GOP Coffman seems like a reasonable guy. Obama could sink him of course, but that is the only way I see him losing. Now if Tancredo were still here, it would be strong Dem.
IA-04 - Tossup > Lean GOP  King is weak, but he is still an incumbent
ILL-06 - Lean GOP > Strong GOP Roskam is a strong GOP incumbent in a GOP pack seat
ILL-13? - Tossup > Lean GOP Need more information, but from what I read earlier, it didn't sound like things were going that well in getting Johnson ousted, but we'll see.
NV-03 - Tossup > Lean GOP Heck will have a tough race, but most of the reviews of his campaign ability I have seen are positive.
NV-04 - Lean Dem > Strong Dem I don't think the GOP is even gonna try here, not with Presidential turnout
UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?

Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R.

Aside from gaining a bunch of new territory, I don't see why he would have trouble. In 2008, he got 58% in a district Obama came in around the mid 50's, now it is 51% Obama. And the new territory is Republican leaning stuff from the old 8th. I think the Dems will focus on the 8th, 10th and 11th in that area of the state, and 12th, 13th and 17th downstate.

[MilesC56]

UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty.

I should have put Matheson's district as Lean D too, instead of Safe D.