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Author Topic: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map  (Read 16098 times)
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brittain33
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« Reply #150 on: April 13, 2012, 08:30:50 am »
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FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC.  Blame the VRA.
No, the state legislature drew the map. It's just that now there is a state constitutional amendment imposing stricter rules on the process. Fat lot of good that did.
The legislature believed that those strict rules required those red squiggles.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #151 on: April 13, 2012, 12:44:10 pm »
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Sorry, some of the Indiana districts were 40% GOP when they where supposed to be 50% GOP.  But I fixed it. 



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Miles
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« Reply #152 on: April 13, 2012, 01:00:13 pm »
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Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?


I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines.

Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting?

Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map.
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« Reply #153 on: April 13, 2012, 01:52:23 pm »
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Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?


I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines.

Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting?

Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map.

This, to me says that if Democrats don't win back the House then they need to get some better people recruiting candidates.
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Nathan
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« Reply #154 on: April 13, 2012, 02:47:47 pm »
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Maybe it's just my impression, but NY (or at least upstate) seems exceptionally "clean" to me. Did they actually get a sound bipartisan compromise ?

Sort of. A court drew the map.
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I didn't really read it, tbh.
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #155 on: April 15, 2012, 02:02:26 am »
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I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead.  Sad  Same thing for their Washington link. 
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nclib
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« Reply #156 on: April 15, 2012, 11:02:51 am »
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I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead.  Sad  Same thing for their Washington link. 

Yeah, me too. If anyone here has an account at DKE, they should post that in the comments. (Though I don't mind the attention to my state's crazy maps Wink)
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Miles
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« Reply #157 on: April 15, 2012, 11:11:32 am »
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I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead.  Sad  Same thing for their Washington link. 

Is this for the new Pres-by-CD numbers?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #158 on: April 15, 2012, 11:17:34 am »
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Here's a better link for the DKE stuff.
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« Reply #159 on: April 15, 2012, 02:32:55 pm »
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Maybe it's just my impression, but NY (or at least upstate) seems exceptionally "clean" to me. Did they actually get a sound bipartisan compromise ?

There is no way in hell the legislature would have done that good a job. It was of course, a court drawn affair.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #160 on: April 16, 2012, 12:18:28 pm »
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FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC.  Blame the VRA.
No, the state legislature drew the map. It's just that now there is a state constitutional amendment imposing stricter rules on the process. Fat lot of good that did.
The legislature believed that those strict rules required those red squiggles.
"Just remember its not a lie if you believe it."
The foremost requirement of the strict rules is to do racial gerrymandering.
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nclib
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« Reply #161 on: April 16, 2012, 08:30:15 pm »
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Good map. It would be good to have a Kerry/Bush map where possible (even if no shading). Plenty of states have that information available (CA, PA, NJ, NY, etc.) and others (at-large states, New England, Deep South) are easily discernable.
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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

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« Reply #162 on: April 16, 2012, 11:01:45 pm »
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Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?


I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines.

Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting?

Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map.

This, to me says that if Democrats don't win back the House then they need to get some better people recruiting candidates.

The question is, how many of these districts did Obama win by less than 5? Those districts aren't guaranteed pickups and in places Obama over-performed they are basically republican districts.
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Miles
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« Reply #163 on: April 17, 2012, 01:02:49 am »
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I hope this helps more people than it confuses. I colored the CDs based on their numbers; I thought it would be a good reference. The color scheme is from DRA with a few modifications. Let me know if there are any errors. I'll add NH when its officially done w/ redistricting.

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muon2
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« Reply #164 on: April 20, 2012, 08:21:25 am »

Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #165 on: April 20, 2012, 11:09:58 am »
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Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet.
They got the right colors in any case. Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #166 on: April 20, 2012, 11:25:53 am »
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Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet.

That was just the map we went with for the time being.
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muon2
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« Reply #167 on: April 20, 2012, 02:53:48 pm »

Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet.

That was just the map we went with for the time being.

Then why not treat it like NH?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #168 on: May 28, 2012, 05:49:41 pm »
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Bump





Kansas is the last state not to pass an official plan.  Here's New Hampshire, btw:  http://images.dailykos.com/i/user/303419/NH_map.html
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #169 on: May 28, 2012, 05:56:19 pm »
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I think Miles drew a copy of it as well.....
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #170 on: May 29, 2012, 04:26:57 pm »
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I think Miles drew a copy of it as well.....

Yeah, I drew NH. I'll go dig it up...

We'll also have to change KS as some point as well.
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« Reply #171 on: June 06, 2012, 05:12:05 pm »
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Very, very early predictions. Didn't have time to be as detailed as I like to be, but this is my gut feeling map. I'm sure it will change quite a bit. I'm just assuming the KS map will stick, although I know that isn't likely.

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Nathan
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« Reply #172 on: June 06, 2012, 08:47:47 pm »
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Why is the Delta district in Mississippi not the red one?
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I didn't really read it, tbh.
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #173 on: June 06, 2012, 09:50:01 pm »
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I think Miles drew a copy of it as well.....

Yeah, I drew NH. I'll go dig it up...


Here we go:

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Snowstalker
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« Reply #174 on: June 06, 2012, 11:24:08 pm »
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Very, very early predictions. Didn't have time to be as detailed as I like to be, but this is my gut feeling map. I'm sure it will change quite a bit. I'm just assuming the KS map will stick, although I know that isn't likely.



I'd probably favor the GOP in the Bucks County district, while Critz will probably hold on.
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