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| | |-+  The Election of 2000: Santorum v. Shaheen
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Author Topic: The Election of 2000: Santorum v. Shaheen  (Read 2439 times)
NHI
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« on: December 16, 2011, 09:36:34 am »
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The Landslide of 1994

Senator-Elect Romney, triumphant in his win over Sen. Ted Kennedy.

In what was seen as the upset of the night, if not the century. Democratic star and liberal champion, Ted Kennedy was defeated in his reelection big by businessman Mitt Romney. Romney's win over Kennedy helped cement the Republican landslide across the country.

MA Senatorial Election:
Romney: 49.5%
Kennedy: 49.3%


With the Republican in control, Pres. Clinton seemed like the odd man out and many wondered if this was the start of his downfall.

Gingrich becomes Speaker of The House.

1996 Election Polling:
Generic Republican: 49%
Clinton: 39%

The Republicans were confident as they took control of Washington in 1995 and started to work with on the Contract with America, while some democrats lamented about the possibility of Clinton running for reelection, given the walloping the party received in 1994.

"If this is what happened in '94, I can only imagine what will happen in '96." -- Tom Daschle.

Republican Nomination:
Bob Dole: 25%
Pat Buchanan: 19%
Steve Forbes: 12%
Lamar Alexander: 10%
Other: 34%

Despite Clinton's vulnerabilities most Republicans were not enthused about the prospective candidates. Bob Dole was the frontrunner for the nomination, but his candidacy did not excite the Republican base. A push began to urge newly elected Governor George Bush to run, but he declined upon taking office. The only other long shot that many republicans yearned for was Retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Colin Powell.


« Last Edit: December 27, 2011, 02:53:41 pm by NHI »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2011, 12:46:55 pm »
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Do you always have Romney win in your timelines?
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2011, 03:23:07 pm »
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This is great. How about a quick rise of Senator Romney to the Presidency by 2000?
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2011, 03:37:53 pm »
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Do you always have Romney win in your timelines?

Yes.
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2011, 04:05:54 pm »
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Obvious hack is obvious.
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2011, 05:20:54 pm »
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Obvious hack is obvious.
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If a burial strikes my family as too practical, I'd go for either a viking funeral on one of the Great Lakes or to be sealed up in a tomb with my closest servants and bang-maids so they may wait on my every need in the afterlife.
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2011, 04:31:20 am »
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« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2011, 01:26:01 pm »
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1996:

In 1995, by using Speaker Gingrich as a foil Pres. Clinton was able to rebound and saw his approval ratings reach 55% by the start of the presidential nominating season. As a strong incumbent, many prominent Republicans bowed out citing that Clinton could not be beat.
On the Republican side, despite a strong draft campaign, Colin Powell decided against running for President in 1996. Instead the nomination fight came down to Bob Dole, the frontrunner and Pat Buchanan. Despite the establishment support Buchanan trumped Dole for the nomination, much to the Republican party's chagrin. For his running mate he selected Jack Kemp. A divided Republican party gritted their teeth and supported The Republican ticket, though not the actual candidate.


Though he never stood a chance Buchanan campaigned where could and presented an ideological challenge to Clinton. However, in the end Clinton triumphed in a landslide over Buchanan. Ross Perot who ran an independent on the Reform Party performed not as strong as in 1992, but still carried ten percent of the vote.

The Clinton following his landslide.



Pres. Clinton/Vice Pres. Al Gore: 430 (50.0%)
Pat Buchanan/Rep. Jack Kemp: 108 (37.6%)
Ross Perot/Pat Choate: 0 (10.2%)

Clinton's victory had coattails and the Democrats made inroads and took back Senate, and improved their numbers in the House. With a truly divided government and Clinton at the height of his popularity the focus began towards 2000, though beneath the surface cracks were beginning to appear in the Clinton armor...

« Last Edit: December 17, 2011, 03:18:17 pm by NHI »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2011, 01:30:04 pm »
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Damn you! Angry making Pat 'n' Jack go down like that! Angry
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2011, 01:40:20 pm »
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I doubt Pat Buchanan would do that poorly.
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2011, 01:59:10 pm »
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Damn you! Angry making Pat 'n' Jack go down like that! Angry
I doubt Pat Buchanan would do that poorly.
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2011, 03:14:58 pm »
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Damn you! Angry making Pat 'n' Jack go down like that! Angry
I doubt Pat Buchanan would do that poorly.

You're probably right. I think I overdid it, a little.
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2011, 08:37:05 pm »
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Damn you! Angry making Pat 'n' Jack go down like that! Angry
I doubt Pat Buchanan would do that poorly.

You're probably right. I think I overdid it, a little.
That new map is very accurate, good timeline so far Wink
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2011, 08:24:10 pm »
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Damn you! Angry making Pat 'n' Jack go down like that! Angry.
That new map is very accurate, good timeline so far Wink
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

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Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2011, 09:38:45 am »
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The Impeachment

In 1998 Bill Clinton became the second President in American history to be impeached by the House of Representatives, in the wake of the Lewinsky Scandal. Some saw the act as a purely political move made by Speaker Newt Gingrich, who was slowly becoming embroiled in his own controversies with the Republican House. Gingrich would eventually step down as Speaker in 1998 following ethic accusations as well as personal matters.

In the end, like Andrew Johnson Clinton survived the process and was not removed from office and went onto finish his second term, with relatively high approval ratings. With the impeachment debacle over the focus then shifted to the 2000 Presidential Election. Vice President Al Gore was the favorite to win the nomination, and the Presidency, but he stunned the political world when he announced in a press conference that he would not run for President.

"I will not be a candidate for President in the 2000 election."

Many speculated that it was the baggage of Clinton's impeachment that forced Gore into the decision not to run, but he repeatedly stated his choice did not reflect any matters involving the President. Though, with Gore out of the race the nomination was wide open.

Following the Vice President's announcements candidates began declaring. Senators John Kerry, Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, Former Senator Bill Bradley, Governor Howard Dean and Governor Jeanne Shaheen.

With such a large field most pundits said the nomination was anybody's to win, though some speculated that Kerry, Gephardt and Bradley had the most likely chances. Though Shaheen and Dean both were seen as dark horses in the race.


"We're the underdog in this campaign, but I believe as we make our case around this country the voters will see that we have what it takes to lead and do great things on behalf of this country!"

The questions of character, integrity and leadership were key themes explored throughout the campaign and each Democratic candidate tried to break free of the Clinton Presidency, while not directly criticizing the President personally. With a booming economy and stability abroad the election favored the Democrats, and the candidates knew it!


"We're going to go to Iowa, and make our case there, we're going to go to New Hampshire, a state neighboring my great state of Vermont and make the case there, and I believe with two wins in those states we'll be set up to not only win the nomination, but the Presidency of the United States."

Despite low name recognition Howard Dean drew large crowds wherever he went and attracted a lot of excitement around his candidacy. Pundits called him, "What the base wants and needs now."


In contrast to Dean Kerry's candidacy was not drawing much excitement, though he was still viewed as one of the likely nominee. As for Bill Bradley his campaign ended in the late summer of 1999, due to poor fundraising and a poor campaign entrance in the spring. He dropped out and endorsed John Kerry for the Presidency.

Polling:
John Kerry: 24%
Dick Gephardt: 19%
Howard Dean: 18%
Jeanne Shaheen: 11%
Undecided: 28%

The large percent of those undecided is what Howard Dean and Jeanne Shaheen wanted to tap into. With Kerry and Gephardt not exciting much of the base, the two democratic governors who were viewed as the underdogs began to slowly climb in the polls and by the fall had come to surpass Kerry and Gephardt in the key early states.

Iowa:
Dean: 34%
Shaheen: 26%
Kerry: 20%
Gephardt: 13%

New Hampshire:
Shaheen: 31%
Dean: 28%
Kerry: 23%
Gephardt: 14%


With the Democrat's field set, The Republican's field was in a bit of disarray. The top pick for the Republicans was Governor of Texas George W. Bush, but he had remained mum on his possible entrance into the race. In a poll that put him against Vice President Gore prior to his announcement showed Gore defeating Bush overwhelming: 56%-38%. When Gore bowed out and the Democratic race showed fluidity many thought that Bush would throw his hat into the ring, but in a surprise announcement like Gore he bowed out of the race, in part citing the strong economy favored a democratic win.

With the big name of Bush out of the race many other candidates began to announces this campaigns. Among those included, Sen. John McCain, Governor Pataki, Governor John Engler, Sen. Mitt Romney, Sen. Rick Santorum, Governor Gary Johnson and Congressman Ron Paul. Both McCain and Pataki were seen as the frontrunners for the nomination, though many argued that Engler was a force to be reckon with also.

Polling:
McCain: 27%
Pataki: 24%
Engler: 19%
Romney: 10%
Santorum: 9%
Johnson: 4%
Paul: 3%/center]

Iowa:
Pataki: 26%
Engler: 26%
McCain: 14%
Santorum: 12%
Romney: 9%
Johnson: 4%
Paul: 2%

New Hampshire:
McCain: 25%
Pataki: 20%
Romney: 17%
Engler: 14%
Santorum: 10%
Johnson: 5%
Paul: 4%


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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2011, 10:31:43 am »
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Iowa:
The candidates fiercely campaigned in the Hawkeye State and conventional wisdom was either Pataki or Engler would win on the Republican side, and on the Democrat's side John Kerry would have a late surge and topple Dean. Both predictions were flat wrong when the votes were finally cast.

Social Conservative Candidate, Sen. Rick Santorum shocked the political establishment with a solid win in the state of Iowa, over his rivals. Santorum attributed to him having visited all ninety-nine counties in the state.
The Alaska Caucus was also the same night as Iowa and while it did not receive much media coverage, George Pataki did manage to win it with 30% of the vote.

Results:
Santorum: 37%
Pataki: 19%
Romney: 18%
Engler: 10%
McCain: 9%
Johnson: 3%
Paul: 2%

On the Democratic side Dean met expectations by carrying the state, though Shaheen surprisingly came in a strong second, ahead of former frontrunner John Kerry.


Results:
Dean: 38%
Shaheen: 35%
Kerry: 14%
Gephardt: 9%

The results in Iowa managed to shake up the races in both parties. On the Republican side Congressman Ron Paul ended his bid after failing to catch on. Johnson vowed to remain in through New Hampshire, though with very little money the Governor of New Mexico seemed to be at his end. McCain who at one time led in New Hampshire saw his numbers drop, where he was now in third place, behind Romney and Pataki who had now eclipsed him in the top tier in the state. However, with Santorum's landslide with in Iowa, many pundits saw the race in New Hampshire as shaking up and called it anyone's game.

On he Democratic side, Gephardt ended his campaign, but would not endorse until after New Hampshire. Shaheen was still the favorite to win in the state, though the win in Iowa for Dean looked to shake up the race in the Granite State; while Kerry hoped for an upset. In an effort to regain control he fired his top campaign staff and replaced them. Some called it a brilliant move, other's saw it as the final steps of a failing campaign. "This race is between Shaheen and Dean going forward."

New Hampshire:

The Governor of New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen managed to hold her state, but not without a strong finish in second by Howard Dean. John Kerry finished third and following the primary he ended his campaign and endorsed Jeanne Shaheen for President. Gephardt followed suit, calling her "The one we need to win in November."


Results:
Shaheen: 44%
Dean: 39%
Kerry: 12%

On the Republican side the race was not yet settled. The Senator from the neighboring state of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney managed to pull an upset over the field and win the all important New Hampshire Primary. With Pataki finishing in second and McCain coming in fourth behind Santorum, it was the one time frontrunner who was viewed as the real loser of the night.


Results:
Romney: 36%
Pataki: 24%
Santorum: 15%
McCain: 12%
Engler: 7%
Johnson: 4%

Following New Hampshire Engler and Johnson bowed out of the race. Johnson did not endorse, but Engler threw his support behind Romney. McCain who had placed fifth in Iowa and now fourth in New Hampshire seemed to be done. McCain did end his campaign, but would wait for a few more contest, before offering an endorsement.

Pataki used the argument as being the most electable of the three candidates in the race and most polls proved that, but in the race for the nomination it came down to essentially a three way tie between Pataki, Romney and Santorum.

Who do you support for the Republican Nomination?
Pataki: 31%
Romney: 30%
Santorum: 29%
Undecided: 10%

Matchup: Romney v. Shaheen
Shaheen: 43%
Romney 40%

Matchup: Romney v. Dean
Romney: 44%
Dean: 42%

Matchup: Pataki v. Shaheen
Pataki: 48%
Shaheen: 40%

Matchup: Pataki v. Dean
Pataki: 49%
Dean: 38%

Matchup: Santorum v. Shaheen
Shaheen: 47%
Santorum: 39%%

Matchup: Santorum v. Dean
Dean: 46%
Santorum: 39%

Who do you support for the Democratic Nomination?
Shaheen: 46%
Dean: 44%

In the excitement following the New Hampshire primary, four days later the candidates headed into Delaware for the primary. Pataki needed to win the state if he were to remain viable, while Dean and Santorum needed to prove they were not the one hit wonders from Iowa. In contrast to the other campaigns it was the Romney and Shaheen organizations that were looking past the early states, towards Super Tuesday and beyond. "If there is a lot shakeups in the first few races then that means we're heading down the track for a long race." --Mitt Romney.

In Delaware Jeanne Shaheen won a decisive win over Dean, but not enough to force him out of the race. Dean vowed to remain in the race through Super Tuesday and see where he stood at that point.

Results:
Shaheen: 50%
Dean: 46%

On the Republican side Romney capitalized on the win in New Hampshire and used it to help seal the deal in Delaware, though Pataki managed to come in a close second, with Santorum coming in third.


Results:
Romney: 46%
Pataki: 36%
Santorum: 15%

Both contests came down to a two person race. On the Democratic side the more establishment wing of the party was in favor of Shaheen, while the base tended to favor Dean. On the Republican side it was something quite different. Romney and Pataki both drew support from The Establishment Wing, but it was Romney who seemed to rally the base in a way Pataki could not.

Who do you support for the Republican Nomination?
Romney: 38%
Santorum: 30%
Pataki: 24%

Who do you support for the Democratic Nomination?
Shaheen: 48%
Dean: 44%

Projected Map:

« Last Edit: December 25, 2011, 01:51:58 pm by NHI »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2011, 10:51:01 am »
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Again, obvious hack is obvious.
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« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2011, 10:53:05 am »
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Wait so Santorum the social conservative/Biggest conservative Drops out of the race for getting third place in delaware ? huh ?
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« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2011, 01:48:32 pm »
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I've decided to tweak with it once again. Santorum does not drop out. More to come.
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2011, 02:53:08 pm »
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South Carolina was seen as the test for Romney' candidacy, whereas the Democratic race moved out for the Washington Primary. Pataki hoped to salvage what was left of his campaign, by winning South Carolina, though many wondered if he had the structure left to win the state.

In what came as a surprise move Texas Governor George Bush endorsed Rick Santorum for President and began campaigning with him in South Carolina. The move came as a surprise to many, as most expected him to endorse Romney for the nomination. The Romney campaign downplayed the endorsement and focus on the state. However, at the end of the race Santorum came back and crushed both Romney and Pataki handily.

Results:
Santorum: 49%
Romney: 24%
Pataki: 23%

With Santorum's landslide win in South Carolina he had reclaimed the momentum for Iowa and headed towards Super Tuesday. On the Democratic side Dean upset Shaheen by winning the Washington Primary. Shaheen, who had hoped to lock up the nomination with a knockout win the state headed towards Super Tuesday, hoping to defeat Dean for good.

Results:
Dean: 51%
Shaheen: 47%

On the February 22th Contests of Arizona and Michigan, Romney rebounded and carried both states; as well as grabbed the endorsement of John McCain.

Results:
Romney: 45%
Santorum: 36%
Pataki: 15%

Results:
Romney: 52%
Santorum: 31%
Pataki: 11%


Pataki ended his campaign shortly after the contests and endorsed Romney for President. With the race now between Romney and Santorum the attack ads began to heat up, with Santorum charging Romney as a "Do-Nothing" in the Senate, and "Has never taken a real stand on the issues and now wants to lead the free world?"

The GOP race rounded out February with contests in Virginia and Puerto Rico, Washington and North Dakota. Romney carried Puerto Rico and Washington, while Santorum took Virginia and North Dakota, prolonging the race into March.

Results:
Romney: 51%
Santorum: 45%

Results:
Romney: 49%
Santorum: 44%

Results:
Santorum: 53%
Romney: 44%

Results:
Santorum: 51%
Romney: 46%

"I'm the true conservative in the race. I have the record. Senator Romney is a wannabe."

On Super Tuesday Romney had a respectable showing, but still not enough to close the deal. The heart of the party was with Santorum, whereas the brain was with Romney. Of the thirteen states Romney carried nine. Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, California, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island and New York. Santorum carried Georgia, Missouri, Washington, and Ohio.

While the Republican race was still unsettled the Democratic race came to an end. Jeanne Shaheen swept the board carrying all but the state of Vermont; Dean's home state. Dean conceded to Shaheen and she became the first female nominee of a major party!


Throughout the month of March, Santorum and Romney kept throwing jabs at one another. Of the ten contests remaining Romney carried three, while Santorum took seven, including massive wins in the states of Texas, Florida and Illinois. By the start of April, the Romney campaign was lacking the needed funds and the Senators was hesitant to draw on his money to help keep the campaign afloat. With much of the base rallying around Santorum Romney choses not to challenge Santorum in his home state of Pennsylvania and focused on Wisconsin, which he won, but only by a thin margin.

Results:
Romney: 48.7%
Santorum: 48.1%

Following the April 4th contests Romney announced his withdrawing from the race and threw his support around Santorum, saying, "We cannot allow the Democrats to gain the upper hand in this fight, we must unite behind the candidate who can win and that is Rick Santorum."

Matchup:
Shaheen: 47%
Santorum: 42%
Undecided: 11%

Shaheen hit the campaign trail and was unrelenting on her attacks against Santorum. She called him an extremist, a partisan and probably the most inexperienced man to be President of the United States. Shaheen's toughness seemed to be working as the majority of voters, when asked seemed to feel comfortable with her as President of United States.

In the weeks leading up to the convention Shaheen announced her pick of Sen. John Kerry as her running mate, a pick which came a surprise to many.

With Democrat's satisfied with their choices, the Republican side was more divided. Many felt Romney deserved to be the Vice Presidential Running mate, though he showed no interest in running. The list eventually narrowed three top contenders.

1. Rep. John E. Sununu
2. Sen. John McCain
3. Gov. George W. Bush

Santorum eventually announced his pick of George W. Bush, which pleased the base. The son of a former President seemed to be the perfect choice.

Matchup: Pre-Republican Convention
Shaheen: 45%
Santorum: 43%

Matchup: Post-Republican Convention
Shaheen: 45%
Santorum: 44%

Matchup: Pre-Democratic Convention
Shaheen: 45%
Santorum: 44%

Matchup: Post-Democratic Convention
Shaheen: 48%
Santorum: 44%


Most pundits speculated that Shaheen had the upper hand in the race, thought Santorum who came from behind to win the Republican Nomination could pull a major upset...

Coming up: Election Night 2000
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« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2011, 04:19:30 pm »
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Good Evening and welcome to Election Night coverage. The race between Governor of Jeanne Shaheen and Senator Rick Santorum. Gov. Shaheen had led throughout much of race, though Sen. Santorum hopes to be the underdog tonight. Though all eyes are on Gov. Shaheen tonight, for if she is able to win the election she will become the first female president in our nation's history.

We are able to make our first projection tonight for Gov. Shaheen, she has carried the state of Vermont.
57% - 42%

We are also able to make our first projection for Rick Santorum. He will carry South Carolina by our estimates.
59% - 39%

...

As we look at some of the results come in we see that Rick Santorum has taken all the southern states that Pres. Clinton carried last time, save for West Virginia and Missouri which has Jeanne Shaheen leading at this time, while Santorum is leading in Missouri. Now what do you make of this switch?

Well George Bush is on the ticket so that helps and these states like Tennessee, Kentucky, are reliably Republican, now if Santorum can hold onto those and then take Florida, Ohio and then a few western states he's got this in the bag.

One of the factors in this race has been Pres. Clinton and his conduct over the course of the last few years. What impact if any does this have on the race?

Well the Republicans tried to make character an issue from the start, and even Shaheen to a lesser extent has been critical of the president, though to a lesser degree. I think at the end of this his impeachment has little effect. His approval numbers are relatively high and the economy is strong. This climate favors the democrats.

Santorum: 103
Shaheen: 84

...

As we look at the numbers in Pennsylvania we can finally project that Sen. Santorum will carry his home state. He did not seek reelection in the state, along side his running for President, but he is able to break the trend, for this is the first time the state has voted Republican since 1988.

Results:
Santorum: 49.9%
Shaheen: 48.8%

Also at this time we are projecting that the state of West Virginia will remain democratic. Gov. Shaheen will carry it tonight.

Results:
Shaheen: 50.0%
Santorum: 48.4%

Santorum: 201
Shaheen: 165

Though Santorum continues to lead in the electoral vote, the popular vote leans more towards Gov. Shaheen, in part due to her impressive wins in Northeast, as well as in the mid western states.

The ones left to look at our Florida and Ohio. New Mexico looks to be going to Shaheen and Arizona to Santorum. But Florida and Ohio are important. Clinton took them in 1996, if Santorum is able to take both he should fine, even with one he should be fine.

...

Just before ten we projected that Gov. Shaheen carried New Mexico and now we are calling the state of Iowa for her tonight. She will win it with at least 52 percent of the vote at this time.

The states of Montana and Utah will both go to Sen. Santorum and-

Sorry to interput, but we have a projection to make. We are projecting that Gov. Shaheen will carry the state of Ohio.
Santorum: 209
Shaheen: 198

Ohio Results:
Shaheen: 51.0%
Santorum: 47.9%

No doubt this was a needed win for the Governor. Looking at the state of Florida, Santorum is still leading, but it is shrinking.

Santorum: 48.9%
Shaheen: 48.3%

...

We are finally able to project Gov. Shaheen the winner in the state of Nevada. To repeat, we are able to project Gov. Shaheen the winner in Nevada. Pres. Clinton carried this state in 1992 and 1996 and it remains Democrat.

Shaheen: 51.2%
Santorum: 48.1%

...






It is now eleven o'clock on the east coast and we are able to make a projection for the Presidency. We are able to make a historic projection: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will be the 43rd President of the United States

Shaheen makes history!

Shaheen: 303 (51.1%)
Santorum: 235 (45.9%

More to Come: The Presidency of Jeanne Shaheen

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« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2011, 05:43:05 pm »
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I've noticed that you always have someone from the East Coast win.
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My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair.  So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.-Jack Layton 1950-2011
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« Reply #22 on: December 27, 2011, 05:47:23 pm »
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I can see Romney winning 2004 in a landslide.
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« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2011, 08:30:51 pm »
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"We fought the fight, we gave it our all."

[The Presidency of Jeanne Shaheen/center]

Jeanne Shaheen became the 43rd President of the United States on January 20th, 2001. With a booming economy and a 3.8% unemployment rating, Shaheen took the reigns of a country in great shape. Her approval ratings remained in the mid seventies throughout much of 2001.

Though unemployment saw a small rise during that time Pres. Shaheen utilized the same methods as President Clinton before her. The economy stabilized, and many Democrats began predicting a landslide reelection for Pres. Shaheen in 2004.

However on September 11th, everything changed. America was attacked and for the first time the mettle of Pres. Shaheen was really tested. All of America and the rest of the world watched as the nation's first female President responded.

"These attacks were heinous in nature and dastardly in plot. America will not be weakened in spite of it. We will rise to the moment and we will win. May God bless you and may god bless this land of freedom."

Shaheen Approval Rating:
Approve: 91%
Disapprove: 6%


Following the attacks of September 11th, Pres. Shaheen ordered the invasion of Afghanistan to topple the Taliban Regime and destroy the operation of Al-Qaeda in the region. The leader of Al-Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden claimed responsibility for the attack and instantly became public enemy number one.

Pres. Shaheen visits with the troops.

By the start of 2002 Afghanistan was rid of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda was fractured. Pres. Shaheen declared that Bin Laden would be found, dead or alive by the end of her first term at the latest; at the earliest by the end of the year.

Shaheen was good on her word and by the start of 2003, following the midterm elections Bin Laden was killed by US forces, while hiding in a cave on the border of Afghanistan. Shaheen's approval ratings remained in the mid to high eighties throughout 2002, but following the death of Bin Laden her ratings shot up to a historic 93%.

In political news The Democrats retook control of the House and Senate in 2002, ending an eight year Republican rule. In Presidential politics speculation on the Republican side began to rise. Many speculated the newly elected Governor of Mitt Romney would run, but he steadfastly declined. With stellar approval ratings no notable Republican wanted to challenge Pres. Jeanne Shaheen.

Republican Nomination

George W. Bush: 19%
George Pataki: 18%
John McCain: 16%
Elizabeth Dole: 11%
Mike Huckabee: 10%
Other: 26%

The list of prospective candidates did not excite much of the GOP base and eyes began to search for other candidates. In early 2003 former Vice Presidential Candidate and Governor of Texas George Bush announced he would not be a candidate for President. The first candidate to announce was Governor Mike Huckabee.

"We elected a man from Hope once again, and today I'm asking to give Hope another chance. Today I announce my candidate for President of the United States."

Following Huckabee's announcement came the surprise entrance of newly Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. He was seen as a dark horse candidate, but most speculated that he would not make it to the caucus.

George Pataki threw his hat into the race in the late spring, citing himself as the candidate who would have won in 2000 and will win in 2004. John McCain also entered the race, though after a disastrous showing in 2000 most believed he would not go far. Other candidates such as Ron Paul, John Kasich.

Pataki remained the early frontrunner, but his lead quickly decimated as Mike Huckabee's campaign began to take flight. Having entered the race in barley double digits, Huckabee rose to the top of the pack with a commanding lead by the end of the year.

Republican Nomination
Huckabee: 41%
Pataki: 19%
McCain: 14%
Pawlenty: 10%
Kasich: 6%
Paul: 3%
Undecided: 7%

Huckabee ultimately won the Iowa Caucus, defeating Pataki in a landslide, and with McCain, Pawlenty and Pataki splitting the vote in New Hampshire Huckabee won the primary too; effectively sealing up the nomination.

Matchup:
Shaheen: 52%
Huckabee: 40%

By early March of 2004 Shaheen's approval ratings had come back down to earth and remained in the mid to high fifties. With the War in Afghanistan ending the shift began to focus towards more domestic issues; especially job growth.

Shaheen Approval Rating:
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 36%

Shaheen's numbers were solid and many democrats prepared for a landslide reelection against Mike Huckabee. However, The Huckabee campaign cited that the polls' projections were too early. "We're going to campaign on the issues. The economy is something that the President has largely ignored, and I'm going to bring that to her attention. Unemployment has been slowly creeping up, not down, and that's a problem!"



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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

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« Reply #24 on: December 28, 2011, 01:02:25 am »
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I can see Romney winning 2004 in a landslide.

Nah, I see Romney winning in 2008 after voter fatigue and a financial crisis produce a historic win, and then miraculous economic recovery from voodoo economics leads to a Reaganesque victory in 2012.
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