How likely is this scenario?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No context--that's up for you to decide. One hint--the main issue is China.

2020

Governor Virg Bernero (D-MI)/Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT)-303 electoral votes
President Chris Christie (R-NJ)/Vice President Marco Rubio (R-FL)-235 electoral votes

[Miles]

I'd switch MO, given its current trends.

[Kevin]

I'd switch MO, given its current trends.

You need to lay off the meth!

[Pingvin]

I'd switch MO, given its current trends.

You need to lay off the meth!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Actually, he posted that when I had Missouri going for Bernero. I switched it, but his post remains.

[Del Tachi]

In order to keep with the current trends, I'd say switch:

AZ
MT
NC
FL

and

NH
PA
OH
MI
WI
MN
IA

[5280]

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In order to keep with the current trends, I'd say switch:

AZ
MT
NC
FL

and

NH
PA
OH
MI
WI
MN
IA

States won't trend that quickly. The issue is over outsourcing, and Christie isn't running as a particularly anti-immigration candidate. Also, Bernero is from Michigan.

[traininthedistance]

The map, and the Republicans running (Prez Christie/ VP Rubio) are both almost too plausible to be interesting   I mean, those are the two biggest "up and coming stars" names on the R side of the ledger, and that's pretty much exactly what a slim Democratic victory would look like right now.

And I can imagine China being a big deal in the years ahead, it already is a pretty big deal.

But Bernero/Murphy??  Really?

[Skill and Chance]

Since Christie isn't running in 2012, this scenario presumes that Obama got a 2nd term.   It would historically be highly unusual for the Republicans to only get 4 years in the White House.  I would actually bet on something like this map in reverse, with a Democrat following a successful Obama 2nd term and then losing moderately to a Republican in 2020.  Or, even more likely, a Republican is reelected in 2020.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Of course China is going to be an ever-larger issue in the years ahead, but I doubt outsourcing (to China) will be much of an issue: China isn't that cheap anymore, and pretty much everything that can be outsourced already has been.