Greece 2012

[Colbert]

Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.

This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.

markets are not rationnals and trust is one of the most important thing in economy.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

[Yelnoc]

Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.

Are you sure about that?  I got my info from a Greek poster on another forum.

[Bacon King]

Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.

Are you sure about that?  I got my info from a Greek poster on another forum.

I don't remember my initial source, but here's confirmation of my interpretation by our forum's own Greek poster:

I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.

Indeed. This part of the law is blatantly unconstitutional and our supreme court has already endorsed a VERY lax enforcement of the law.
Essentially a signed statement by a party's leader declaring that it's a single party and not a coalition is enough.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

Yes.

[Yelnoc]

Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.

Are you sure about that?  I got my info from a Greek poster on another forum.

I don't remember my initial source, but here's confirmation of my interpretation by our forum's own Greek poster:

I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.

Indeed. This part of the law is blatantly unconstitutional and our supreme court has already endorsed a VERY lax enforcement of the law.
Essentially a signed statement by a party's leader declaring that it's a single party and not a coalition is enough.

Ok, well this is where I got it from.  If you have an account on ah.com read the thread; it's very informative.

Laws 3231/2004 and 3636/2009 do not say it explicitly but there is a case law from the Supreme Court which applies here and stipulates that 50 seats bonus is unconstitutional if there is multifragmentation in Parliament as this bonus would remove seats from lesser parties thus twisting popular vote.

This 50 seats bonus has been challenged in the past and the Supreme Court found it constitutional but in the case of multifragmentation is unconstitutional as it is unjust for lesser parties...

Also current electoral law 3636/2008 allows a coalition of parties to take the 50 seats bonus if the "main" party has the most votes than the other collaborating parties... However this doesnt apply here as SYRIZA appears in ballots as unified without the option of voting separately. It only applies on loose coalitions like when parties agree to cooperate but they retain separate ballot papers.

i.e. AKOA is one of the parties that make SYRIZA and when someone votes he might vote for AKOA's candidate but not for the party of AKOA and the vote goes to SYRIZA as a coalition. The supreme court stipulates that voting for a certain candidate does not imply that you vote for his party if he is in a coalition of parties and the ballot goes to the entire coalition.

[I left.]

So what's going on? Any government in sight?

[Old Europe]

Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."

[Swedish Cheese]

Swedish television now reporting that Venizelos is saying it's official, there will be new elections.

[Yelnoc]

Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."

I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[I left.]

My sympathies, Px.

[Californian Tony]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

[I left.]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

[Californian Tony]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

[I left.]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

Hmmm. We'll see soon enough. Do you reckon I should be exchanging my saving from € to $?

[Bacon King]

A Chief Justice will be appointed tomorrow to lead a caretaker government.

In other news: newest poll, from some company called Rass.

SYRIZA: 20.5%
ND: 19.4%
PASOK: 11.8%
ANEL: 7.8%
DIMAR: 6.2%
KKE: 4.8%
XA: 3.8%
[threshold: 3%]
DISY 2.4%
DX: 2.3%
LAOS: 2.0%
Greens: 1.8%

others: 3.7%
undecided: 11.3%

That's a lot of parties near the threshold, and it's refreshing to see Golden Dawn polling so low. It looks like ND might have a chance to keep the fifty bonus seats if undecideds on the right coalesce around them to a greater extent than leftist undecideds do so for SYRIZA.

[Californian Tony]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

Hmmm. We'll see soon enough. Do you reckon I should be exchanging my saving from € to $?

Who knows ? It depends a bit on the results of the next greek elections, a bit on the results of the french legislative elections this june, a bit on other european election, and a lot on the temperament of European leaders. I'm pretty sure the next 6 months will be crucial in determining our future...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

[I left.]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

[Californian Tony]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

Honestly, it doesn't matter much to me where the problem stems from. The main issue is what has (and has not) been done to solve it since it emerged.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

We are broke, we don't produce anything (we import garlic from China and lemons from Morocco!) and our public administration is in shambles and rife with corruption.

If we return to drachma we will probably experience inflation around 50%. We will be unable to buy oil, medicine and other vital supplies and the people will need in a few months a couple of millions just to buy a loaf of bread.

[I left.]

So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

[Lief]

As soon as Greece leaves the Euro, so does Spain. And then the whole house of cards collapses. Greece isn't big enough to take down the Eurozone on its own, but it's certainly big enough to start the mad dash for the door.

[Californian Tony]

So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Maturity ?!? Goddamnit, this post is so wrong that it depresses me...