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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 61253 times)
Hashemite
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« on: December 16, 2011, 05:20:00 pm »

Expected in February 2012 and posted because I found this poll amusing:

ND 30%
PASOK 15.5%
SYRIZA 14%
KKE 13.5%
Dem Left 9.5%
Nazis 6%
Greenies 4%
DISY 3%
Others 4.5%

It would be great if the KKE placed second!
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2011, 05:29:56 pm »
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If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2011, 05:31:37 pm »
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Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2011, 06:03:57 pm »
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Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.

In Spain, the PP, despite running an incompetent campaign with an incompetent leader that nobody seems to like, managed to win the best result in their history.

Meanwhile, according to this poll, the ND would be the biggest party in parliament despite actually getting a smaller share of the vote than in 2009.
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As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2011, 06:06:15 pm »
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If there is one single depressing election in the world's history, it will probably be this one.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2011, 06:17:43 pm »
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Actually, I have to wonder.. if that result came to pass, would sort of government would form?
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As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2011, 06:30:29 pm »
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Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2011, 06:48:04 pm »
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What are the differences between the Dem Left and PASOK? Don't both parties want to remain in the Eurozone and accept austerity measures? Although I'd imagine the Dem Left is more friendly towards SYRIZA, seeing as they're a breakaway party, there doesn't seem to be very many substantial differences between them.

I'm really curious to see that if the disparate leftist/anti-euro forces can settle their differences after this election to end this ordeal. Stranger things have happened...

edit: I'm hoping for a KKE or SYRIZA overperformance
« Last Edit: December 17, 2011, 05:19:34 am by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2011, 06:58:45 pm »
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What happened to the old Synapsiamos?
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2011, 04:36:56 am »
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If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...
There are historical reasons why they won't. Sad

What happened to the old Synapsiamos?
Renamed (merged with some minor organizations to form Syriza).
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2011, 09:24:16 am »

Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

Sure, if they want to destroy Europe and proceed to be shunned from the continent.
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Хahar
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2011, 02:55:26 am »
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Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:



And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:



If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

There are historical reasons why they won't. Sad

It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 03:47:11 am by Χahar »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2011, 04:32:15 am »
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Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:



And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:


What a shame it will never happen...
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2011, 06:18:34 am »
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The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.


One-day-newer poll:

ND 29.3%
PASOK 17.1%
KKE 13.6%
SYRIZA 10.7%
LAOS 9.2%
DIMAR 5.9%
Greens 5.8%
DISY 2.5%
Others 5.9%

By my very rough calculations that comes out to:

ND 123
PASOK 49
KKE 39
SYRIZA 30
LAOS 26
DIMAR 17
Greens 16

Bear in mind that with the 3% election threshold DISY misses out on representation with these numbers. Isn't it sad, DISY?

United Left:

Left 126
ND 83
PASOK 49
LAOS 26
Greens 16
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 08:26:03 am by Nathan »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2011, 06:21:06 am »
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The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.
French local elections have that too.

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.
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« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2011, 06:37:55 am »
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There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2011, 07:53:30 am »
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I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2011, 11:11:58 am »
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I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters? Wink
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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2011, 06:02:32 am »
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There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%
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Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2011, 06:17:21 am »
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I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters? Wink

It's still 1000 times fairer than constituency voting, where a party can get less votes than another and still win more seats.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #20 on: December 20, 2011, 06:18:38 am »
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I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2011, 06:28:16 am »
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There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%

There's still a huge moral problem : the winning coalition wins the same number of seats no matter its results. Which also means that, the lower the results of the winning coalition are, the more other parties will be underrepresented. It might not have been a huge problem for general elections until now, but look at the current municipal council, where the De Magistris coalition holds 64% of the seats despite winning only 17% of the vote !!! That's pretty insane.

Also note that a 10% numerical majority bonus would have given the winning coalitions the same number (or slightly more) seats in 2006 and 2008.


I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.

Yes, this is a very good thing. One of the main problem with election thresholds is the spoiler effect of little parties, and the Italian system has solved this problem. The majority bonus system is still pretty awful though.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2011, 07:35:43 am »
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Ultimately it's an example of an electoral law that attempts to have its cake and eat it.
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« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2011, 09:43:12 am »
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Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

Sure, if they want to destroy Europe and proceed to be shunned from the continent.

More's the pity that similar results aren't being replicated across Europe.
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« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2011, 01:37:43 pm »
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Proportional representation with a majority bonus combines the worst features of PR (unelected legislators) with the worst features of FPTP (legislature unrepresentative of popular vote).
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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