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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 61249 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #200 on: May 05, 2012, 03:32:01 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

  • As soon as the new Parliament takes office
How long after the elections themselves is that?
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« Reply #201 on: May 05, 2012, 04:22:45 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

  • As soon as the new Parliament takes office
How long after the elections themselves is that?

The Greek Constitution states it has to be within thirty days of the election, with the specific date specified in the Presidential decree that called for the election.

My Google Fu must be getting rusty because it actually took me a few minutes to find the date: the 14th Session of the Hellenic Parliament will take office on May 17th. Smiley

So that's two weeks of negotiations available for the party that wins the 50 bonus seats.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #202 on: May 05, 2012, 05:37:31 am »
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Good job Mr. King. Smiley
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« Reply #203 on: May 05, 2012, 05:52:08 am »
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Of course, it'd be hilariously difficult to shape a majority against the bonus seats.
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« Reply #204 on: May 05, 2012, 07:39:34 am »
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Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negotiations for months is not good for anyone.

Finland got some tough coalition negations after last election and rise of the True Finns.

Now the main Finnish newspaper is stating that Greece is going to "election chaos". Maybe we're so interested how does to new government deal with the loans which are a hot debate in the Finnish politics.

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« Reply #205 on: May 05, 2012, 09:02:31 am »
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Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negociations for months is not good for anyone.

Ironically, the Belgian economy seemed to trundle along pretty well during the period when there was no government.
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« Reply #206 on: May 05, 2012, 09:18:18 am »
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So this XA party is actually an admitted Neo-Nazi party? And might hit 10%? Yikes.
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« Reply #207 on: May 05, 2012, 09:23:20 am »
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It's very common that people vote for extreme right or extreme left partys during bad times.
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« Reply #208 on: May 05, 2012, 09:26:19 am »
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It's very common that people vote for extreme right or extreme left partys during bad times.

Obviously but this is a little different than voting for, say, FN in France. This is an admitted Nazi party and we're talking 10%...
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« Reply #209 on: May 05, 2012, 09:48:26 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?
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« Reply #210 on: May 05, 2012, 09:50:11 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

Then Greece is f**ked.
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« Reply #211 on: May 05, 2012, 09:54:46 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

may god help us all...
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« Reply #212 on: May 05, 2012, 09:58:36 am »
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They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #213 on: May 05, 2012, 10:00:00 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.
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« Reply #214 on: May 05, 2012, 10:04:43 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

Coincidentally, I actually noted the possibility of this happening just a few hours ago in the predictions thread:

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this:

XA: 15%
ND: 14%
PASOK: 13%
SYRIZA: 12%
DIMAR: 11%
ANEL: 11%
KKE: 9%
LAOS: 5%
EcoGreen: 4%
others: 6%

That's a bit of a scary prospect.

With something like that happening, the fifty seat bonus for XA would actually be like half of their seat total. No other party would even think about joining XA in a coalition, though it'd be hard for the other parties to find enough common ground to form a government. You'd probably either see a very loose coalition form that lasts a few months at most, or they'd go through the whole process and end up with new elections- the left would probably make an effort to coalesce around a specific party to take the lead from XA. SYRIZA and DIMAR I'm sure would remerge, at the very least, and as a result get the 50-seat bonus.
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« Reply #215 on: May 05, 2012, 10:06:09 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.

I don't think they will underperform, but I think they won't get more than 10%.

Despite being attacked from all the parties it didn't stop the other Right-wingers in Europe from overpolling by a few points, because their supporters are still very motivated to go out and vote. So, probably no underperforming (less than 5%).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #216 on: May 05, 2012, 10:14:02 am »
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Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.

I don't think they will underperform, but I think they won't get more than 10%.

Despite being attacked from all the parties it didn't stop the other Right-wingers in Europe from overpolling by a few points, because their supporters are still very motivated to go out and vote. So, probably no underperforming (less than 5%).

There are plenty other more "respectable" right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-EU parties to vote for and XA's support is VERY soft.
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« Reply #217 on: May 05, 2012, 10:16:11 am »
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And probably a big no-no because they were...uh...Nazis. Though it is especially peculiar in Greece and even more ironic considering current Greek-German relations.
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« Reply #218 on: May 05, 2012, 10:18:24 am »
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Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?
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« Reply #219 on: May 05, 2012, 10:18:54 am »
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And probably a big no-no because they were...uh...Nazis. Though it is especially peculiar in Greece and even more ironic considering current Greek-German relations.

It's quite simple really:

1. Merkel is a Nazi.
2. Germany is doing fine.
3. If we vote for Nazis, we'll do fine!
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« Reply #220 on: May 05, 2012, 10:21:50 am »
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They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".
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« Reply #221 on: May 05, 2012, 10:23:57 am »
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They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".

I think LAOS is a totally different construction site than XA (but maybe I'm wrong). I always thought of LAOS as a very rightwing FP/BZ-like party without the Nazi component. But maybe Lyndon knows more.
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« Reply #222 on: May 05, 2012, 10:34:06 am »
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Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?

Just because they're Nazi doesn't mean they're pro-German. Their rhetoric towards Germany, the IMF, and the austerity measures is comparable to Hitler's rhetoric towards the Western Allies and the Versailles Treaty.
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« Reply #223 on: May 05, 2012, 10:35:05 am »
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Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?

Of course they are opposed, they are nationalists so they consider the measures imposed by EU as an infringement of our independence and freedom.

They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".

I think LAOS is a totally different construction site than XA (but maybe I'm wrong). I always thought of LAOS as a very rightwing FP/BZ-like party without the Nazi component. But maybe Lyndon knows more.

There will be no coalition of anybody with XA. Everybody has denounced them as Nazi-loving thugs and pleaded with the voters not to send them in the parliament because that would be an embarrassment for our political system.
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« Reply #224 on: May 05, 2012, 12:05:53 pm »
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Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negociations for months is not good for anyone.

Ironically, the Belgian economy seemed to trundle along pretty well during the period when there was no government.

Not really ironic at all. With no government to pass austerity packages, there was nothing to drag the economy into recession.
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At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
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