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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 53990 times)
Bacon King
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« Reply #225 on: May 05, 2012, 02:47:46 pm »
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btw, px, how are you voting?
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« Reply #226 on: May 05, 2012, 03:11:12 pm »
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The Nazi connection is ironic in that it was Italy's foolish invasion of Greece (from their bases in Italian occupied Albania) that sparked the German invasion.  Hitler wanted to prepare for the invasion of Russia, and getting involved in a sideshow war in Greece was the last thing he wanted to do, but without Germany's help, the Italians would have suffered a hugely embarassing defeat, and the loss of prestige for Mussolini would have weakened his regime. A further irony was that Greece's leader Metaxas, was considered a somewhat fascist.  He died during the war against Italy (before the Germans got in).  Germany would have prefered a neutral Greece and wanted peace and quiet in the Balkans while it geared up for its war against Russia.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #227 on: May 05, 2012, 08:50:50 pm »
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I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.
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« Reply #228 on: May 05, 2012, 08:58:17 pm »

I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.

That's probably not a terrible choice, despite them being ideologically far more right-wing than I am. All the other parties, from a serious standpoint, are irresponsible douches. Now, I don't know if I could resist not voting for the KKE, which is truly a party with so much comedic talent and skill.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #229 on: May 05, 2012, 09:06:18 pm »
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I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.

That's probably not a terrible choice, despite them being ideologically far more right-wing than I am. All the other parties, from a serious standpoint, are irresponsible douches. Now, I don't know if I could resist not voting for the KKE, which is truly a party with so much comedic talent and skill.

Yeah, I don't agree with some of the neoliberal policies on steroids they advocate for. Heck, I even got in a facebok brawl with one of their candidates because when I pointed out that one of his proposed policies would increase unemployment he said that he "didn't care" and that some people losing their jobs would be a small price to pay for complete economic freedom.

But compared to the socialist utopias, fascist dystopias or the waffling that comes from the other parties, I'll take it. Greece has drifted too much to the left (or rather a caricature of the left) and parties like DISY are necessary so as to have an ideologically balanced debate here.
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« Reply #230 on: May 05, 2012, 11:47:30 pm »
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Does Greece do exit polls? Or do they have another ridiculous election law against those?
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« Reply #231 on: May 06, 2012, 07:48:09 am »
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What's the best English-language source for news coverage of this? (Is there like a France24 equivalent?)

I want to know also. And is there any livestreams of the elections?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #232 on: May 06, 2012, 07:49:23 am »
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Does Greece do exit polls? Or do they have another ridiculous election law against those?

We do. They will be released at 7PM local, which I guess is 12PM Eastern.
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« Reply #233 on: May 06, 2012, 07:50:33 am »
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What's the best English-language source for news coverage of this? (Is there like a France24 equivalent?)

I want to know also. And is there any livestreams of the elections?

ERT sometimes have subtitled broadcasts, but I'm quite sure their election coverage will be entirely in Greek. Don't know of any other possibilities.
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« Reply #234 on: May 06, 2012, 10:04:13 am »
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Panos Kammenos looks like Chris Christie and shares a birthday with me. I think I have to root for ANEL today.  Wink
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« Reply #235 on: May 06, 2012, 10:31:41 am »

Any rumours?
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« Reply #236 on: May 06, 2012, 10:48:58 am »
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Any rumours?

Just seen a crap article on the Guardian saying Syriza will finish second. Roll Eyes
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #237 on: May 06, 2012, 10:57:14 am »
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I voted 10 min. ago.
Waiting now for the exit polls in five minutes.
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« Reply #238 on: May 06, 2012, 11:05:29 am »

ND 17-20%
SYRIZA 15.5%-18.5%
PASOK 14-17%
ANEL 10-12%
KKE 7.5%-9.5%
XA 6-8%
DIMAR 4.5%-6.5%
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« Reply #239 on: May 06, 2012, 11:06:15 am »
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Prediction:
ND 109 seats
PASOK 43 seats
SYRIZA 30 seats
ANEL 28 seats
KKE 27 seats
DIMAR 23 seats
XA 15 seats
LAOS 10 seats
Greens 9 seats
DISY 6 seats


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #240 on: May 06, 2012, 11:25:37 am »
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Results:

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #241 on: May 06, 2012, 11:27:03 am »
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« Reply #242 on: May 06, 2012, 11:32:47 am »
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When will we start getting actual numbers?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #243 on: May 06, 2012, 11:33:57 am »
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When will we start getting actual numbers?

Small precincts have already started to report.
Conclusive results we'll have in 2 hours.
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« Reply #244 on: May 06, 2012, 11:47:16 am »
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My hope is that DISY fails to enter parliament and Axis of Evil fails to get majority.
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« Reply #245 on: May 06, 2012, 11:49:12 am »
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Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.

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« Reply #246 on: May 06, 2012, 11:50:11 am »
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Wasn't DIMAR polling high enough to become PASOK's succesor as the standard bearer of the (centerish) left at one point?

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« Reply #247 on: May 06, 2012, 12:03:26 pm »
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jeron
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« Reply #248 on: May 06, 2012, 12:07:29 pm »
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Prediction:
XA 15 seats


Terrible, just terrible.
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« Reply #249 on: May 06, 2012, 12:14:03 pm »
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Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.



But the prediction still gives ND and PASOK 152 seats, which is a tiny majority.
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