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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 54137 times)
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change08
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« Reply #250 on: May 06, 2012, 12:16:08 pm »
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Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.



But the prediction still gives ND and PASOK 152 seats, which is a tiny majority.

As if they could risk that! Look at the number of defections both sides have seen since this whole fiasco began.
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« Reply #251 on: May 06, 2012, 12:29:07 pm »
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It seems that if ND+PASOK does not reach majority or gets is a very slim majority as seems likely the two main pro-European Union parties  are now likely to win less than 40 per cent of the vote, their  leaders, Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, may decide to press for a second election to be held within a few weeks,  rather than try to govern with an overall majority of less than 20 seats.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #252 on: May 06, 2012, 12:34:37 pm »
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Hey guys, do you know how to get a permanent visa for Canada, Australia, the moon?
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« Reply #253 on: May 06, 2012, 12:36:12 pm »

Prediction:
XA 15 seats


Terrible, just terrible.

Urgh, yeah. Quite.
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« Reply #254 on: May 06, 2012, 12:44:06 pm »
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I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.
And I had you down for PASOK-no-matter-what. Shocked
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #255 on: May 06, 2012, 12:46:36 pm »
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Can someone tell me why austerity is good or bad?
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« Reply #256 on: May 06, 2012, 12:48:16 pm »
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My hope is that DISY fails to enter parliament and Axis of Evil fails to get majority.
Axis of Evil? ND-PASOK-ANEL-Far Right(-DISY)? Tongue
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« Reply #257 on: May 06, 2012, 12:49:22 pm »
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Oh, cool. Cool Live results.

PASOK leading in Crete (lol), Syriza all over the metro and in Patras, ND in the Rhodopes and one more random place, KKE on Samos.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #258 on: May 06, 2012, 12:54:01 pm »
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The Nazis at 7% right now, with about 1/5 counted.

Just like I expected them. They polled at about 5/6% before the election, but I predicted that they'll overpoll slightly, but not get more than 10%.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #259 on: May 06, 2012, 12:55:22 pm »
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What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
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« Reply #260 on: May 06, 2012, 12:57:16 pm »
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What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.
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« Reply #261 on: May 06, 2012, 01:07:49 pm »
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I haven't checked where results be from, but Laos, DISY and Greens all narrowishly below 3% atm. That ought to make finding a "majority" for Samaras a lot easier if it holds.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #262 on: May 06, 2012, 01:13:12 pm »
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What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.

Well, might happen again today. SYRIZA ahead in Chanion with 18% reporting.
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« Reply #263 on: May 06, 2012, 01:14:28 pm »
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What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.

Well, might happen again today. SYRIZA ahead in Chanion with 18% reporting.
Oh, and in 1977 EK was the strongest party in Crete, not PASOK (nor ND).
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« Reply #264 on: May 06, 2012, 01:15:40 pm »
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ND is actually doing a lot worse than 2009.

KKE hasn't benefitted at all.
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Brian Schweitzer '16
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« Reply #265 on: May 06, 2012, 01:17:52 pm »
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ND is actually doing a lot worse than 2009.

Hardly surprising, that.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #266 on: May 06, 2012, 01:18:34 pm »
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KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.
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« Reply #267 on: May 06, 2012, 01:21:07 pm »
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KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all. Cheesy
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jaichind
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« Reply #268 on: May 06, 2012, 01:25:28 pm »
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Looks like PASOK just got pushed to 3rd.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #269 on: May 06, 2012, 01:26:27 pm »
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You know, things might end up closeish for first place.

Though probably not.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #270 on: May 06, 2012, 01:27:36 pm »
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KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all. Cheesy

ΚΚΕ has its own newspaper, radio and TV station.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #271 on: May 06, 2012, 01:32:12 pm »
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KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all. Cheesy

ΚΚΕ has its own newspaper, radio and TV station.
Which are, presumably, only listened to and read by the people already hoodwinked by them.

(Does help explain why they're so stable... though it's not as if western Commies didn't/don't have their own newspapers as well.)

I had been wondering regarding the many Greek pollsters quoted on wiki whether the trad. parties don't have their own pollsters as well?
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Meeker
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« Reply #272 on: May 06, 2012, 01:54:40 pm »
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The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #273 on: May 06, 2012, 01:55:18 pm »

The Greek electoral system is rigged. I don't see how anybody who isn't a hack or an idiot can find anything good in that system.
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« Reply #274 on: May 06, 2012, 01:57:25 pm »
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Golden Dawn's top districts:

11.70% Korinthias
10.70% Lakonias
10.70% Argolidos
10.20% Attikis
9.15% Eyvoias
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