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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 60511 times)
Dereich
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« Reply #275 on: May 06, 2012, 02:01:36 pm »
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So with all the recent sprees of defections what would be a safe majority for an ND/PASOK coalition?
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« Reply #276 on: May 06, 2012, 02:02:18 pm »
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That's an... odd list. Attika and Negroponte (whatever the English transcription of Euböa is) have been good to LAOS as well, Morea the Peloponnese not really. And while the Peloponnese includes PASOK strongholds, ND strongholds, and more swingy areas, the list combines the latter with part of the middle ones. And other LAOS strongholds are missing.
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« Reply #277 on: May 06, 2012, 02:03:16 pm »
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The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18

If that's true, ND + PASOK = 158. Solid majority, no?
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« Reply #278 on: May 06, 2012, 02:05:10 pm »
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There will be no ND-PASOK coalition government. The projections show that they will both have around 146 seats.
We are probably going to new elections in 40-50 days. 
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« Reply #279 on: May 06, 2012, 02:06:23 pm »
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Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #280 on: May 06, 2012, 02:06:31 pm »
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That depends on Greens, DISY and LAOS staying out. As to solid... who knows. Have you seen the numbers of defections during the last parliament? Nothing is solid, in a way. Then again, can you expect similar things again, even assuming there will be "events"? Who knows? Certainly not we.
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« Reply #281 on: May 06, 2012, 02:07:21 pm »
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Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?
If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.
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« Reply #282 on: May 06, 2012, 02:14:31 pm »
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If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

They wouldn't. ND and PASOK are both very much closer to each other than anyone else due to their positions regarding the Eurozone, and what matters will be whether those two get a combined majority over the small anti-Eurozone parties (in that sense, the KKE and LAOS are closer to each other than to their respective "wingmates").
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Meeker
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« Reply #283 on: May 06, 2012, 02:18:32 pm »
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ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system
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« Reply #284 on: May 06, 2012, 02:19:31 pm »
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It's not really getting closer anymore either.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #285 on: May 06, 2012, 02:26:12 pm »
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It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.
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« Reply #286 on: May 06, 2012, 02:27:36 pm »
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It's not really getting closer anymore either.

I may be reading this wrong but I think only 26% of the vote is in. Hopefully it'll get closer. I may be on the right and in favor of the European consensus but I want the smile wiped off of Samaras's face.
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« Reply #287 on: May 06, 2012, 02:29:09 pm »
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ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #288 on: May 06, 2012, 02:29:46 pm »
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It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.
Yeah, may just have been a couple of non-Syriza-heavy updates, Crete is above average reporting fwiw.
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« Reply #289 on: May 06, 2012, 02:31:43 pm »
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ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.

I'm aware of why it happened; that doesn't make the system any less ridiculous.
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« Reply #290 on: May 06, 2012, 02:34:04 pm »
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Kyklades have just flipped. Cheesy
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« Reply #291 on: May 06, 2012, 02:51:44 pm »
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With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 02:53:47 pm by Bacon King »Logged

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« Reply #292 on: May 06, 2012, 02:56:14 pm »
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Dimiourga Xana 1.91
Drasi 1.61
Antarsya 1.16
Koinoniki Symfonia 0.91
etc pp ct
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« Reply #293 on: May 06, 2012, 02:58:19 pm »
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With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %


And looking at whats out, and the trend for the ND lead to shrink as more comes in, it will probably close a bit more.
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« Reply #294 on: May 06, 2012, 02:59:43 pm »
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What are the chances we see ND go below 20%?
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« Reply #295 on: May 06, 2012, 03:00:44 pm »
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Fairly good I suppose. But possibly not all that much lower.
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« Reply #296 on: May 06, 2012, 03:01:41 pm »
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33.47% reporting now; what's coming in is pushing ND and PASOK down, keeping DISY away from the threshold, and mostly boosting SYRIZA (but also helping Greens and XA a bit).

ND:         112   20,26 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,81 %
PASOK:    43    14,06 %
ANEL:       32   10,32 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,83 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,81 %
DISY:                2,53 %
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« Reply #297 on: May 06, 2012, 03:02:29 pm »
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DISY won't make it, I am ready to declare. Far too early to tell for Greens and LAOS (my money is on aye for the latter, really can't tell for the former).
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« Reply #298 on: May 06, 2012, 03:13:29 pm »
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Hmmm... ND actually creeping back up as of the last updates...
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« Reply #299 on: May 06, 2012, 03:17:04 pm »
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36.90% reporting. Looks like new results are from conservative areas; ND/ANEL big winners at the expense of KKE/SYRIZA/DISY. LAOS getting closer to threshold.

ND:         112   20.36 %
SYRIZA:    48   15.79 %
PASOK:    43    14.08 %
ANEL:       32   10.35 %
KKE:         26    8.34 %
XA:           21    6.83 %
DIMAR:     18    5.98 %
LAOS:               2.89 %
Greens:            2.80 %
DISY:                2.49 %
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