Greece 2012

[netzero19]

So an ND Pasok coalition now has a majority of 1...

[Lief]

Yeah I thought seat distribution was nationwide proportional (with the 3% threshold and the +50 seat thing), but then apparently each constituency has seats as well but these seats aren't really distributed proportionally but the national numbers still match what they should be if seat distribution was done nationally?!

[Bacon King]

77.60% reporting (15989/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continues to fall, with pretty much every other party increasing. Greens continue to approach threshold, with LAOS showing movement as well.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.12%

ND:	110	19.53%
SYRIZA:	50	16.41%
PASOK:	42	13.49%
ANEL:	32	10.51%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.91%
DIMAR:	19	6.05%
Greens:		2.88%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.58%

[Insula Dei]

Re: Lewis' enthusiasm for the KKE's strength on Samos:

The isle of Samos itself is actually rather disappointing for the KKE and seems to have ND as largest party right now, nearby Ikarias makes the whole into a leftwing bulwark. KKE+SYRIZA at over 60%.

[Meeker]

The good news for the Greens is that they'll get another shot at making it into Parliament in only a month

[Korwinist]

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:
It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.

Well, the Communists took Cyprus.

[Insula Dei]

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)

[Bacon King]

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.

To be fair, the law for the 50 seat bonus was first passed in 2007, and the "reinforced proportionality" system has been the norm in Greece since they got rid of the junta (excluding a failed experiment with direct proportionality in 1989 that caused 3 elections in 10 months). Not something that was put in place because everyone hates 'em now.

[The Mikado]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

[Bacon King]

80.02% reporting (16588/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.05%

ND:	110	19.48%
SYRIZA:	50	16.43%
PASOK:	42	13.51%
ANEL:	32	10.52%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.89%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.88%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.58%

[jaichind]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_general_election,_1999

One Israel which is really a alliance dominted by Labor Party only got 20.2% and was the top vote getter

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

[Bacon King]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

How about this? Not really the same, though, given that parties only compete in half of the country.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

Yep.

[jaichind]

I found one

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_1988

Two top parties both got 19.3%

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

[jaichind]

Yep.  It is pretty sad the ND-PASOK will get less that 33% of the vote but will, in theory, be able to form a government.  The vote got split amoung too many parties which failed to cross 3% AND the 50 seat bonus seems to have done it.  Of course both ND and PASOK seems to be losing vote share as the count continues so I can see them being down to 150.

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

[Bacon King]

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

Right has a majority, but nobody is going to let Golden Dawn into government so that's a nonstarter. The current grand coalition barely has a majority that will be entirely unworkable in practice, and certainly wouldn't have a majority without the bonus.

[You kip if you want to...]

The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

[jaichind]

The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I thought of that as well but I choose not to count it because it was the first of two rounds.  I am pretty sure the results would be dramatically different if the voting population in France were told that there would only be one round.  In cases like this the first round votes would be more scattered.  The Greek system only has one round ergo I choose not to go with this example.

[The Mikado]

The Thai 1988 election works.  Thanks, jaichind!

Anyway, it'd be difficult at this point, but it's still possible that the Greens cross the barrier, which would utterly change the dynamics and make ND/PASOK impossible in theory as well as practice.

[Landslide Lyndon]

px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat

That's a good question. Unfortunately I suspect that not even the ones who wrote the law know the answer.

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)

Peloponisos was always one of the most conservative regions but it's not like we are talking about the Deep South. Achaia was always a progressive bastion because the Papandreou clan are from there.

[Bacon King]

85.41% reporting (17391/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens, still.
SYRIZA gains a seat at the expense of PASOK. Movement for Greens and LAOS towards threshold.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.91%

ND:	110	19.40%
SYRIZA:	51	16.49%
PASOK:	41	13.47%
ANEL:	32	10.51%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.90%
DIMAR:	19	6.06%
Greens:		2.89%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.58%

[Edu]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010

[Bacon King]

86.93% reporting (17911/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.82%

ND:	110	19.33%
SYRIZA:	51	16.51%
PASOK:	41	13.46%
ANEL:	32	10.52%
KKE:	26	8.37%
XA:	21	6.90%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.89%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

[Joe Republic]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010

I like how the leader of the largest party doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.