Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2014, 09:51:56 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hashemite)
| | |-+  Greece 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 ... 47 Print
Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 63664 times)
netzero19
Rookie
*
Posts: 33


View Profile
« Reply #350 on: May 06, 2012, 06:20:58 pm »
Ignore

So an ND Pasok coalition now has a majority of 1...
Logged
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34416


View Profile
« Reply #351 on: May 06, 2012, 06:21:37 pm »
Ignore

Yeah I thought seat distribution was nationwide proportional (with the 3% threshold and the +50 seat thing), but then apparently each constituency has seats as well but these seats aren't really distributed proportionally but the national numbers still match what they should be if seat distribution was done nationally?!
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 06:24:07 pm by Lief »Logged



Thank you, Mr. President.
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #352 on: May 06, 2012, 06:25:44 pm »
Ignore

77.60% reporting (15989/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continues to fall, with pretty much every other party increasing. Greens continue to approach threshold, with LAOS showing movement as well.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.12%

ND:  110    19.53%
SYRIZA:    50    16.41%
PASOK:    42    13.49%
ANEL:    32    10.51%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.91%
DIMAR:    19    6.05%
Greens:       2.88%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.58%
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4232
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #353 on: May 06, 2012, 06:26:12 pm »
Ignore

Re: Lewis' enthusiasm for the KKE's strength on Samos:

The isle of Samos itself is actually rather disappointing for the KKE and seems to have ND as largest party right now, nearby Ikarias makes the whole into a leftwing bulwark. KKE+SYRIZA at over 60%.
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #354 on: May 06, 2012, 06:27:50 pm »
Ignore

The good news for the Greens is that they'll get another shot at making it into Parliament in only a month Cheesy
Logged
Korwinist
ModernBourbon Democrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1250


View Profile
« Reply #355 on: May 06, 2012, 06:28:39 pm »
Ignore

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.
Logged

○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32319


View Profile
« Reply #356 on: May 06, 2012, 06:29:03 pm »
Ignore

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:
It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.

Well, the Communists took Cyprus.
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4232
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #357 on: May 06, 2012, 06:30:14 pm »
Ignore

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)
Logged

Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #358 on: May 06, 2012, 06:36:46 pm »
Ignore

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.

To be fair, the law for the 50 seat bonus was first passed in 2007, and the "reinforced proportionality" system has been the norm in Greece since they got rid of the junta (excluding a failed experiment with direct proportionality in 1989 that caused 3 elections in 10 months). Not something that was put in place because everyone hates 'em now.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14520


View Profile
« Reply #359 on: May 06, 2012, 06:40:58 pm »
Ignore

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.
Logged

Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #360 on: May 06, 2012, 06:41:05 pm »
Ignore

80.02% reporting (16588/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.05%

ND:  110    19.48%
SYRIZA:    50    16.43%
PASOK:    42    13.51%
ANEL:    32    10.52%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.89%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.88%
LAOS:       2.86%
DISY:       2.58%
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2066
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile
« Reply #361 on: May 06, 2012, 06:44:28 pm »
Ignore

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_general_election,_1999

One Israel which is really a alliance dominted by Labor Party only got 20.2% and was the top vote getter

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #362 on: May 06, 2012, 06:44:48 pm »
Ignore

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

How about this? Not really the same, though, given that parties only compete in half of the country.

Quote
Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

Yep.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2066
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile
« Reply #363 on: May 06, 2012, 06:47:39 pm »
Ignore

I found one

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_1988

Two top parties both got 19.3%


Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32319


View Profile
« Reply #364 on: May 06, 2012, 06:48:53 pm »
Ignore

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2066
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile
« Reply #365 on: May 06, 2012, 06:55:15 pm »
Ignore

Yep.  It is pretty sad the ND-PASOK will get less that 33% of the vote but will, in theory, be able to form a government.  The vote got split amoung too many parties which failed to cross 3% AND the 50 seat bonus seems to have done it.  Of course both ND and PASOK seems to be losing vote share as the count continues so I can see them being down to 150.

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #366 on: May 06, 2012, 06:56:27 pm »
Ignore

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

Right has a majority, but nobody is going to let Golden Dawn into government so that's a nonstarter. The current grand coalition barely has a majority that will be entirely unworkable in practice, and certainly wouldn't have a majority without the bonus.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8782
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #367 on: May 06, 2012, 06:56:36 pm »
Ignore

The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002
Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2066
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile
« Reply #368 on: May 06, 2012, 07:01:00 pm »
Ignore


I thought of that as well but I choose not to count it because it was the first of two rounds.  I am pretty sure the results would be dramatically different if the voting population in France were told that there would only be one round.  In cases like this the first round votes would be more scattered.  The Greek system only has one round ergo I choose not to go with this example.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14520


View Profile
« Reply #369 on: May 06, 2012, 07:06:15 pm »
Ignore

The Thai 1988 election works.  Thanks, jaichind!

Anyway, it'd be difficult at this point, but it's still possible that the Greens cross the barrier, which would utterly change the dynamics and make ND/PASOK impossible in theory as well as practice.
Logged

Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9345
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #370 on: May 06, 2012, 07:08:25 pm »
Ignore

px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat



That's a good question. Unfortunately I suspect that not even the ones who wrote the law know the answer.

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)

Peloponisos was always one of the most conservative regions but it's not like we are talking about the Deep South. Achaia was always a progressive bastion because the Papandreou clan are from there.

Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #371 on: May 06, 2012, 07:10:36 pm »
Ignore

85.41% reporting (17391/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens, still.
SYRIZA gains a seat at the expense of PASOK. Movement for Greens and LAOS towards threshold.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.91%

ND:  110    19.40%
SYRIZA:    51    16.49%
PASOK:    41    13.47%
ANEL:    32    10.51%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.90%
DIMAR:    19    6.06%
Greens:       2.89%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.58%
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
Edu
Ufokart
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7198
Argentina


View Profile
« Reply #372 on: May 06, 2012, 07:19:30 pm »
Ignore

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010
Logged
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16376
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #373 on: May 06, 2012, 07:20:31 pm »
Ignore

86.93% reporting (17911/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.82%

ND:  110    19.33%
SYRIZA:    51    16.51%
PASOK:    41    13.46%
ANEL:    32    10.52%
KKE:    26    8.37%
XA:    21    6.90%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.89%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
Joe Republic
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30874
United States


View Profile
« Reply #374 on: May 06, 2012, 07:25:53 pm »
Ignore

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010

I like how the leader of the largest party doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.
Logged



Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 ... 47 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines