Greece 2012
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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 222032 times)
Bacon King
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« Reply #350 on: May 06, 2012, 06:25:44 PM »

77.60% reporting (15989/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continues to fall, with pretty much every other party increasing. Greens continue to approach threshold, with LAOS showing movement as well.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.12%

ND:  110    19.53%
SYRIZA:    50    16.41%
PASOK:    42    13.49%
ANEL:    32    10.51%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.91%
DIMAR:    19    6.05%
Greens:       2.88%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.58%
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #351 on: May 06, 2012, 06:26:12 PM »

Re: Lewis' enthusiasm for the KKE's strength on Samos:

The isle of Samos itself is actually rather disappointing for the KKE and seems to have ND as largest party right now, nearby Ikarias makes the whole into a leftwing bulwark. KKE+SYRIZA at over 60%.
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Meeker
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« Reply #352 on: May 06, 2012, 06:27:50 PM »

The good news for the Greens is that they'll get another shot at making it into Parliament in only a month Cheesy
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #353 on: May 06, 2012, 06:28:39 PM »

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.
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jfern
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« Reply #354 on: May 06, 2012, 06:29:03 PM »

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:
It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.

Well, the Communists took Cyprus.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #355 on: May 06, 2012, 06:30:14 PM »

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)
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Bacon King
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« Reply #356 on: May 06, 2012, 06:36:46 PM »

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.

To be fair, the law for the 50 seat bonus was first passed in 2007, and the "reinforced proportionality" system has been the norm in Greece since they got rid of the junta (excluding a failed experiment with direct proportionality in 1989 that caused 3 elections in 10 months). Not something that was put in place because everyone hates 'em now.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #357 on: May 06, 2012, 06:40:58 PM »

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #358 on: May 06, 2012, 06:41:05 PM »

80.02% reporting (16588/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.05%

ND:  110    19.48%
SYRIZA:    50    16.43%
PASOK:    42    13.51%
ANEL:    32    10.52%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.89%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.88%
LAOS:       2.86%
DISY:       2.58%
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: May 06, 2012, 06:44:28 PM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_general_election,_1999

One Israel which is really a alliance dominted by Labor Party only got 20.2% and was the top vote getter

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #360 on: May 06, 2012, 06:44:48 PM »

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

How about this? Not really the same, though, given that parties only compete in half of the country.

Quote
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Yep.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: May 06, 2012, 06:47:39 PM »

I found one

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_1988

Two top parties both got 19.3%


Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.
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jfern
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« Reply #362 on: May 06, 2012, 06:48:53 PM »

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?
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jaichind
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« Reply #363 on: May 06, 2012, 06:55:15 PM »

Yep.  It is pretty sad the ND-PASOK will get less that 33% of the vote but will, in theory, be able to form a government.  The vote got split amoung too many parties which failed to cross 3% AND the 50 seat bonus seems to have done it.  Of course both ND and PASOK seems to be losing vote share as the count continues so I can see them being down to 150.

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #364 on: May 06, 2012, 06:56:27 PM »

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

Right has a majority, but nobody is going to let Golden Dawn into government so that's a nonstarter. The current grand coalition barely has a majority that will be entirely unworkable in practice, and certainly wouldn't have a majority without the bonus.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #365 on: May 06, 2012, 06:56:36 PM »

The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002
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jaichind
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« Reply #366 on: May 06, 2012, 07:01:00 PM »


I thought of that as well but I choose not to count it because it was the first of two rounds.  I am pretty sure the results would be dramatically different if the voting population in France were told that there would only be one round.  In cases like this the first round votes would be more scattered.  The Greek system only has one round ergo I choose not to go with this example.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #367 on: May 06, 2012, 07:06:15 PM »

The Thai 1988 election works.  Thanks, jaichind!

Anyway, it'd be difficult at this point, but it's still possible that the Greens cross the barrier, which would utterly change the dynamics and make ND/PASOK impossible in theory as well as practice.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #368 on: May 06, 2012, 07:08:25 PM »

px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat



That's a good question. Unfortunately I suspect that not even the ones who wrote the law know the answer.

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)

Peloponisos was always one of the most conservative regions but it's not like we are talking about the Deep South. Achaia was always a progressive bastion because the Papandreou clan are from there.

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Bacon King
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« Reply #369 on: May 06, 2012, 07:10:36 PM »

85.41% reporting (17391/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens, still.
SYRIZA gains a seat at the expense of PASOK. Movement for Greens and LAOS towards threshold.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.91%

ND:  110    19.40%
SYRIZA:    51    16.49%
PASOK:    41    13.47%
ANEL:    32    10.51%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.90%
DIMAR:    19    6.06%
Greens:       2.89%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.58%
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Edu
Ufokart
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« Reply #370 on: May 06, 2012, 07:19:30 PM »

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010
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Bacon King
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« Reply #371 on: May 06, 2012, 07:20:31 PM »

86.93% reporting (17911/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.82%

ND:  110    19.33%
SYRIZA:    51    16.51%
PASOK:    41    13.46%
ANEL:    32    10.52%
KKE:    26    8.37%
XA:    21    6.90%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.89%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #372 on: May 06, 2012, 07:25:53 PM »

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010

I like how the leader of the largest party doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #373 on: May 06, 2012, 07:32:05 PM »

How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?
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batmacumba
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« Reply #374 on: May 06, 2012, 07:32:40 PM »

Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?
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