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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 56772 times)
The Mikado
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« Reply #375 on: May 06, 2012, 07:32:05 pm »
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How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?
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Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
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« Reply #376 on: May 06, 2012, 07:32:40 pm »
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Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?
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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #377 on: May 06, 2012, 07:34:49 pm »
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And ND loses another to ANEL. ND/PASOK no longer works.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 07:36:51 pm by Dereich »Logged
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #378 on: May 06, 2012, 07:36:00 pm »
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And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.
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« Reply #379 on: May 06, 2012, 07:37:27 pm »
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And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.

Yeah, but now it wouldn't even work in theory.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #380 on: May 06, 2012, 07:39:09 pm »
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How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution. For example, ND currently has 0 seats out of 4 from Imathias, where they're in first, but 3 out of 8 seats in Irakleiou, where they're in fifth.

Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?

No, that's the approximate percentage of the vote a party would need to reach a majority from the bonus seats. Smiley
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« Reply #381 on: May 06, 2012, 07:39:53 pm »
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If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #382 on: May 06, 2012, 07:43:09 pm »
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89.61% reporting (18464/20605 precincts)

As previously mentioned, ND loses a seat to ANEL.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.72%

ND:  109    19.26%
SYRIZA:    51    16.54%
PASOK:    41    13.42%
ANEL:    33    10.53%
KKE:    26    8.41%
XA:    21    6.91%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.90%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #383 on: May 06, 2012, 07:43:41 pm »
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If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?
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« Reply #384 on: May 06, 2012, 07:44:12 pm »
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If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

I'd guess like nine seats or so, but see:

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution.
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« Reply #385 on: May 06, 2012, 07:45:53 pm »
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If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.
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« Reply #386 on: May 06, 2012, 07:46:20 pm »
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If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

Probably because you can't f'ing read? It's obvious from what I wrote I didn't regard it a possibility, I was interested in terms of electoral peculiarity, and for possible future elections.

Thanks Bacon King.
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« Reply #387 on: May 06, 2012, 07:46:44 pm »
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I guess the only realistic government would be ND-PASOK-DIMAR like I mentioned before.  This government can have a programme of staying in Eurozone and chip away at the deal with the EU bailout but not at the expense of exiting the Euro.  Not sure how realistic this is or how long it would last.  But I can see no other government.  If this does not work out then I guess it would another election.  
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« Reply #388 on: May 06, 2012, 07:49:01 pm »
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If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you Smiley
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« Reply #389 on: May 06, 2012, 07:49:46 pm »
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Markets are already reacting.  US stock futures are off 0.9%.  Oil is off 2% and Korean stock exchange is off 1.5%
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« Reply #390 on: May 06, 2012, 07:50:16 pm »
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Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.
And yet another example: Brazil since 1990 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Brazil#Election_results_1982-2010).
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Bacon King
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« Reply #391 on: May 06, 2012, 07:51:58 pm »
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If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #392 on: May 06, 2012, 07:52:50 pm »
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If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you Smiley

Yeah but following that logic we might as well ask the same thing about the Pirates. It's a useless conversation.
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« Reply #393 on: May 06, 2012, 07:53:45 pm »
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You know, that's a stupid comparison.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #394 on: May 06, 2012, 07:54:03 pm »
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If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.
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Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
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« Reply #395 on: May 06, 2012, 07:54:48 pm »
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If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #396 on: May 06, 2012, 07:56:38 pm »
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91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:  109    19.22%
SYRIZA:    51    16.57%
PASOK:    41    13.41%
ANEL:    33    10.54%
KKE:    26    8.40%
XA:    21    6.92%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.90%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 07:58:48 pm by Bacon King »Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
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« Reply #397 on: May 06, 2012, 07:57:56 pm »
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If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.
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batmacumba
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« Reply #398 on: May 06, 2012, 07:58:33 pm »
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ANEL and SYRIZA are anti-bailout, while DIMAR splited from SYRIZA to be on a pondered position. So, jaichind is probably right. Nevertheless, It would be an unstable coalition just like the last Italian leftist one. What do you think, px?
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batmacumba
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« Reply #399 on: May 06, 2012, 07:59:10 pm »
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If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

Oh, didn't saw yours.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.
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