Greece 2012

[batmacumba]

91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:	109	19.22%
SYRIZA:	51	16.57%
PASOK:	41	13.41%
ANEL:	33	10.54%
KKE:	26	8.40%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.

Glad I could help!

Here's a link to the earlier post I referenced, btw.

[The Mikado]

ND all the way down to 19.17%.

ND+PASOK=32.54%.

[Bacon King]

Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.

Looking at where votes are out, I think that the race will definitely keep tightening but I doubt it'll be enough to put SYRIZA over the top. I'll give it maybe a one in four chance of happening.

Of course, if SYRIZA does take the lead, from my admittedly poor understanding of Greek electoral law that could lead to a lot of random shifts in seat results for all the parties, given the way that the 50 bonus seats are actually picked among electoral district seats through some convoluted process.

[politicus]

Are the Greens anti-austerity?

[Bacon King]

93.58% reporting (19282/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.52%

ND:	109	19.14%
SYRIZA:	51	16.62%
PASOK:	41	13.36%
ANEL:	33	10.55%
KKE:	26	8.42%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.08%
Greens:		2.91%
LAOS:		2.88%
DISY:		2.60%

[politicus]

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

[Bacon King]

94.77% reporting (19476/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.42%

This is going to be close... SYRIZA leads- and is polling above their national percentage- in the ten districts with the most left to report. And in one of those other three regions, ND is leading with a total below their current national average.

ND:	109	19.08%
SYRIZA:	51	16.66%
PASOK:	41	13.32%
ANEL:	33	10.55%
KKE:	26	8.43%
XA:	21	6.93%
DIMAR:	19	6.08%
Greens:		2.91%
LAOS:		2.88%
DISY:		2.59%

[Bacon King]

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

I think so, yes.

[jaichind]

This is what I found

--------------------------------------------------------------
Founded in 2002, this environmentalist party has never broken the three per cent barrier necessary to win seats in parliament. That might change this election: polls show the party may narrowly pass the threshold.

Ecologist Greens oppose the memorandum, partly for environmental reasons. Yiannis Paraskevopoulos, the head of the party’s list of state deputies, said that the reforms spelled out in the memorandum favour an "economy of plunder", including plans to drill for oil and mine gold in Greece.

The party supports Greece's membership in the eurozone and the EU. Although Ecologist Greens have said they would not be part of a coalition with New Democracy or PASOK, they may be open to working with SYRIZA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The memorandum above refers to the second financial rescue package.

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

[jaichind]

Wow, it seems ND might break below 19%

[The Mikado]

ND might finish second behind "Other." 

[Leftbehind]

How I wish there was another 20% to count.

[Bacon King]

ND might finish second behind "Other." 

fifty deputies for everyone below the threshold to share?

[Bacon King]

95.85% reporting (19476/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.37%

ND:	109	19.04%
SYRIZA:	51	16.67%
PASOK:	41	13.30%
ANEL:	33	10.55%
KKE:	26	8.44%
XA:	21	6.95%
DIMAR:	19	6.09%
Greens:		2.91%
LAOS:		2.89%
DISY:		2.58%

[Mr. Morden]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?

[politicus]

PASOK might eventually have to join an anti-austerity coalition led by SYRIZA in order not to be annihilated. But thats after 2-3 defeats.

[Meeker]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?

Anyone who claims to know what the eventual outcome is going to be is a liar/a fool... there's no way of knowing.

[Senator MaxQue]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?

Anyone who claims to know what the eventual outcome is going to be is a liar/a fool... there's no way of knowing.

Am I a liar/a fool if I claim to know than it won't be pretty?

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?

I have no idea what's going to happen. ND has two weeks now to try to negotiate a coalition and there options aren't very good. Only option for them is ND+PASOK+DIMAR or maaybe ND+PASOK+ANEL or ND+ANEL+DIMAR. None of those sound feasible and on the off-chance those are actually agreed to, they certainly won't last long. If there's no coalition, SYRIZA gets a chance, and then PASOK, and neither of them have any path to a majority. Certainly a new election, sooner or later.

As for the probable results of a future election, ND and PASOK would probably lose more support as they appear increasingly unable to govern the country. SYRIZA would probably come in first, and I could possibly see the formation of an anti-austerity SYRIZA+DIMAR+ANEL+(ND/PASOK breakaway parties) coalition form as a result. Honestly though, I've got no idea, this is just a bit of conjecture.

[Bacon King]

Also, updated election results

96.57% reporting (19899/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.31%

ND:	109	19.01%
SYRIZA:	51	16.70%
PASOK:	41	13.27%
ANEL:	33	10.56%
KKE:	26	8.45%
XA:	21	6.96%
DIMAR:	19	6.09%
Greens:		2.92%
LAOS:		2.89%
DISY:		2.58%

[The Mikado]

The guys on Something Awful argued that the ND's best hope is to encourage bribe individual members of ANEL to jump ship to ND and members of DIMAL to join PASOK.  It'd be a tough sell (who wants to climb onto a sinking ship?), but with the right kind of inducements, it doesn't seem too far out.

Also, ND at exactly 19.00%.

Other's at 18.97%.  I think it'd look so cool to see the "winner" be Other.

[Meeker]

ND is on the verge of losing another seat.

[Meeker]

And there it goes; ND to SYRIZA.

[Bacon King]

97.52% reporting (20094/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.24%
Seat change from ND to SYRIZA
Total other (18.99%) now greater than ND

ND:	108	18.97%
SYRIZA:	52	16.73%
PASOK:	41	13.23%
ANEL:	33	10.57%
KKE:	26	8.46%
XA:	21	6.96%
DIMAR:	19	6.09%
Greens:		2.92%
LAOS:		2.89%
DISY:		2.57%