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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 61245 times)
blagohair.com
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« Reply #525 on: May 09, 2012, 07:34:58 pm »
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Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous. But if they dont, who gets the bonus? The second party could be ND again, would they get it then?

No one does.  All 300 seats are allocated based on percentage of votes to parties with more than 3%.
PASOK does have some power with the unions, but it's mostly KKE, which is where KKE gets most of their votes.
PASOK has no reason to exist now that SYRIZA is the "big" leftist" party, since SYRIZA is to the left of PASOK.  
« Last Edit: May 09, 2012, 07:36:54 pm by blagohair.com »Logged

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« Reply #526 on: May 09, 2012, 07:51:19 pm »
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Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous.
It probably will be very hard to unite all 13 (according to Wikipedia) parties, from social democrats to maoists and trotskyists, into one in such a short time...

Maybe Synaspismos will try to run independently?

No, they won't run independently.  One of SYRIZA's greatest assets is Manolis Glezos, the symbol of Greece's resistance during the Nazi occupation, who is a member the Active Citizens, one of the 13 parties that form the coalition.  A lot of older Greeks are really hesitant to vote for a leftist party, but Glezos' presence probably played a big role in SYRIZA getting such a high percentage.
I think it's more likely they will unite and change their name.

But there are some rumors that Venizelos will ask Kouvelis to form his own government without any input from PASOK or ND.  If Kouvelis and ND accept the offer, it will be a really interesting development because isn't exactly against the bailout.
This is more of an act of desparation by Venizelos who knows PASOK will be destroyed if the elections take place next month.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2012, 07:56:29 pm by blagohair.com »Logged

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« Reply #527 on: May 09, 2012, 08:31:43 pm »
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PASOK has no reason to exist now that SYRIZA is the "big" leftist" party, since SYRIZA is to the left of PASOK.  

Isn't SYRIZA too left for ex-PASOK voters? I suppose most of them in future will vote for PASOK or DIMAR rather than SYRIZA.
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« Reply #528 on: May 09, 2012, 09:01:03 pm »
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Most PASOK or ND voters don't vote based on ideology, so with PASOK losing power they will have to find a new home.
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« Reply #529 on: May 10, 2012, 01:28:56 am »
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The fate of Greece lies in the hands of Fotis Kouvelis. It would be better for the euro not to have another election, as it could result in Syriza gaining even more seats.
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« Reply #530 on: May 10, 2012, 03:55:33 pm »
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The first poll after the elections has SYRIZA on top:

http://www.alphatv.gr/getattachment/Microsites/Ekloges-2012/Polls/20-04-2012/Δημοσκοπηση-Alpha-10-05-12.pdf.aspx

SYRIZA 27.7
ND 20.3
PASOK 12.6
ANEL 10.2
KKE 7
Golden Dawn 5.7
DIMAR 4.9

Tsipras as the VP of the European Left wrote to Barroso, the EU Commission and the Eurogroup suggesting that the EU re-examines its current policies, which are putting in danger the future of all europeans.

In the meantime PASOK and DIMAR reached an agreement to form a government for 2 years with Kouvelis being the PM, and Venizelos is planning to request the support of all democratic parties (as he described them) meaning SYRIZA and ND.  ND will most definitely accept, but SYRIZA insists that Greece doesn't accept the bailout.  ANEL, which Venizelos apparently doesn't consider a democratic party for some reason, has already said they will only join a coalition if PASOK and ND change their position on the bailout.

Kouvelis knows that forming a government with the support of PASOK and ND only (without the support of SYRIZA) would be political suicide so there's still a lot of uncertainty.
If a government isn't formed within 3 days, the country's President (Papoulias) will have to invite the leaders of all 7 parliamentary groups, which means that he will have to shake hands with the leader of Golden Dawn.  Papoulias fought during WWII and has no intention to meet with the Golden Dawn leader, so he will probably push for a solution within the next 3 days.
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« Reply #531 on: May 10, 2012, 04:01:37 pm »
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Yeah, I don't see why Kouvelis would support such a government unless significant policy changes are agreed upon (which of course, is very unlikely).
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« Reply #532 on: May 10, 2012, 04:03:56 pm »
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I think that we can have interesting implications in next elections. Bakoyannis can try to create a coalition with other minor pro-European liberal parties in order to become viable, although I think that she would veto Samaras as PM. Social Agreement can join SYRIZA, DIMAR or even Greens to enter parliament. LAOS will collapse and its remains will go to ANEL. Tsipras will be under hard vetting until June.
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« Reply #533 on: May 10, 2012, 04:37:35 pm »
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That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16
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« Reply #534 on: May 10, 2012, 04:42:10 pm »
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The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 
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« Reply #535 on: May 10, 2012, 04:47:04 pm »
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That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.
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« Reply #536 on: May 10, 2012, 04:49:39 pm »
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That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)
« Last Edit: May 10, 2012, 04:52:01 pm by Swedish Cheese »Logged

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« Reply #537 on: May 10, 2012, 05:14:02 pm »
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Where do ANEL and DIMAR stand on Greece staying in the Eurozone?
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« Reply #538 on: May 10, 2012, 05:18:30 pm »
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Venizelos meeting with ND in the morning. If Kouvelis is truly as supportive as it sounds, looks like we might actually see a government form tomorrow.
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blagohair.com
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« Reply #539 on: May 10, 2012, 05:19:09 pm »
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They both want to remain in the Eurozone, however the ANEL leader claims that the current EU leaders are corrupt, while Kouvelis would like to see the EU integrate even more (publish eurobonds, have a common foreign and economic policy etc.).
SYRIZA btw is also in favor of remaining in the Eurozone but they claim that different policy is required due to Greece being in a recession for 5 years.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2012, 05:30:36 pm by blagohair.com »Logged

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« Reply #540 on: May 10, 2012, 05:34:01 pm »
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That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)
In theory (and I know its only in theory) there would also be pure left of center option: SYRIZA + DIMAR + KKE = 161. The Communists would be in a dilemma, since there would actually be a majority for creating a Socialist society (of some sorts). If they kept up their "no responsibility for us" act they would have some explaining to do to their voters.
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« Reply #541 on: May 10, 2012, 05:42:05 pm »
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http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_09/05/2012_441398
Looks that Samaras is hated even by right-wingers. A Manos-Bakoyannis alliance can generate even more collapse in ND voting, even helping pro-austherity prospects.
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« Reply #542 on: May 10, 2012, 06:00:08 pm »
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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.
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« Reply #543 on: May 10, 2012, 06:02:25 pm »
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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.
Take the advice from the Russians, they have experience with this sort of thing Smiley
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« Reply #544 on: May 10, 2012, 06:06:10 pm »
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That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)
In theory (and I know its only in theory) there would also be pure left of center option: SYRIZA + DIMAR + KKE = 161. The Communists would be in a dilemma, since there would actually be a majority for creating a Socialist society (of some sorts). If they kept up their "no responsibility for us" act they would have some explaining to do to their voters.

I doubt that SYRIZA and especially DIMAR considered as socialist parties in KKE eyes (and probably in eyes of most KKE voters?). Even stalinists and trotskyists hate each other, not to mention the non-Marxist socialists.
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« Reply #545 on: May 10, 2012, 06:07:45 pm »
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Wait: So what is the chance that there may actually be a plausible government in the making? Or are we still convinced that there are going to be new elections?
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« Reply #546 on: May 10, 2012, 06:17:46 pm »
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Sounds like either Venizelos totally capitulated, or Kouvelis just wants to be PM so badly that he's willing to sacrifice all principles (and his party's fortunes) so he can be PM for even just 2 years (or less, depending on how long the government actually lasts).  If anything, it sounds like it's probably the later (do really think PASOK and ND would backtrack on all the austerity, which he set as a condition for joining?)  If I were Greek and a DIMAR voter (which I ideologically would be, though I might have tactically voted for SYRIZA), I'd be EXTREMELY pissed off right now.  
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« Reply #547 on: May 10, 2012, 06:26:44 pm »
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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
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« Reply #548 on: May 10, 2012, 06:37:45 pm »
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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2012, 06:40:19 pm by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #549 on: May 10, 2012, 06:40:05 pm »
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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

EU santioned anti-democracy!? Well, i'm shocked.
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