Greece 2012

[Landslide Lyndon]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

[Californian Tony]

The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU hopefully force the EU to take a different direction, establish EuroBond and real economic solidarity between countries, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

Corrected.

[politicus]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

[ag]

That's called a coup. And, probably, under the circumstances, it would be the ideal pre-text for kicking Greece out of the EU in the nastiest manner imaginable. I am pretty sure, the Germans will take the opportunity to do it.

[You kip if you want to...]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

^ This.

It's not good to have the powers that be throwing a hissy fit and ignore the will of the electorate just because they don't like how they voted.

[Bacon King]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Articles 44 and 48 allow for Parliament to be temporarily bypassed "under extraordinary circumstances of an urgent and unforeseeable need" and in "case of war... or an imminent threat against national security, as well as in case of an armed coup aiming to overthrow the democratic regime" respectively, (the latter only when it's "objectively impossible" to convene Parliament in time) but both can only be declared by the President at the Cabinet's initiative. No mechanism for military involvement. The available time limit is also incredibly limited, with Article 48 requiring Parliamentary consent within fifteen days, and Article 44 requires decrees to be submitted for Parliament's approval within forty days.

The military stepping in directly would certainly be unconstitutional; the only legal "option" to prevent a Syriza government would involve the outgoing Cabinet declaring a national emergency under Article 44 Paragraph 1 just before they were officially replaced, and then have Papoulias postpone the commencement of Parliament for a month under Article 40 Paragraph 2&3 so the new anti-austerity cabinet couldn't take office. And even then, after that month PASOK/ND would be absolutely hated, with the appearance of illegitimately clinging to power, and the electoral repercussions would be disastrous. But to do it any other way would probably be treason.

(Unless I'm overlooking something or the translation I found of the Greek Constitution is bad, anyway)

[Swedish Cheese]

The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU hopefully force the EU to take a different direction, establish EuroBond and real economic solidarity between countries, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

Corrected.

Ah yes I'm sure you might be right that a single protest election in Greece might get the European establishment revaluate everything they have done to handle the crisis so far and make a U-turn.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

I'm not saying it will happen but the mere fact that such a possibility is not anymore casually dismissed in a conversation shows at least that we are indeed in a situation that approaches a national emergency.
And of course if this where ever to happen there would be a provocation first, not unlike the December 2008 riots.

That's called a coup. And, probably, under the circumstances, it would be the ideal pre-text for kicking Greece out of the EU in the nastiest manner imaginable. I am pretty sure, the Germans will take the opportunity to do it.

Not if they are in the loop. Frankly, Germany has shown till now very little regard to the democratic process of the EU and its members.

[Bacon King]

Of course, just playing devil's advocate here, whatever signals of tacit approval that potentially get sent in favor of a coup-if-necessary could just be the Troika hedging their bets. If Greece's military becomes "needed" the austerity deal will be effectively unsalvageable anyway, so it'd be Germany's perfect excuse to kick Greece out of the Eurozone and wash their hands of everything.     

[Hatman]

What's the point of asking PASOK to try and form a government? Theoretically since ND and SYRIZA couldn't do it, then PASOK shouldn't be able to form a coalition with either, and there's not enough seats left to form a majority.

[Senator MaxQue]

It's the procedure outlined in the Constitution.
Anyways, DIMAR-ND-PASOK, with a DIMAR PM is the proposal of PASOK, now. Only the approval of ND is needed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Of course, just playing devil's advocate here, whatever signals of tacit approval that potentially get sent in favor of a coup-if-necessary could just be the Troika hedging their bets. If Greece's military becomes "needed" the austerity deal will be effectively unsalvageable anyway, so it'd be Germany's perfect excuse to kick Greece out of the Eurozone and wash their hands of everything.     

The problem here isn't so much austerity. The mischief and mayhem is caused mostly by interest groups with entrenched privileges which stringently oppose even the slightest reform (taxi drivers, university professors, and above all civil servants) and the leftist parties like KKE and SYRIZA whose sole purpose is to create turmoil in the name of protecting workers rights, even during good times.   

[Bacon King]

It's the procedure outlined in the Constitution.
Anyways, DIMAR-ND-PASOK, with a DIMAR PM is the proposal of PASOK, now. Only the approval of ND is needed.

And PASOK's talking with ND at this very moment, so presumably we'll hear fairly quickly whether a tentative coalition is workable.

Honestly, though, I'm not sure if DIMAR's entirely on board as much as Venizelos is making it out to be:

http://www.euractiv.com/euro-finance/venizelos-holds-break-talks-greece-news-512640

After talks with Venizelos on Thursday, the Democratic Left leader, Fotis Kouvelis, said he was willing to join a broad-based government that would keep the country in the euro but "gradually" disengage it from the terms of the EU/IMF bailout.

"There is a very slim chance for a coalition if Kouvelis agrees," one socialist party official quoted by Reuters said, adding that his party is “split right down the middle”.

According to the daily Kathimerini, Kouvelis appears to believe that a unity government with a specific agenda could meet his two specific goals of keeping Greece in the euro and moving the country away from the fiscal restrictions of the bailout programme agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

“I propose the formation of a broad-based government made up of trustworthy political figures that will reflect and respect the message from the elections,” Kouvelis said.

Sounds to me like Kouvelis is hedging a bit, and wants to see what the actual coalition agreement would look like. He's also probably worried that half of his caucus would jump back over to Syriza if DIMAR joins a government with nobody else but ND and PASOK. It's possible Venizelos trumped up yesterday's meeting so much just to pressure DIMAR against backing out.

[Bacon King]

Here's some definite good news, at least: The EU will continue funding Greece until they have a government, even if new elections are needed.

"My understanding is that a second election in Greece could be by mid-June. We have the means to support Greece through the end of June," a second euro zone official said.

Asked if the funding could be disbursed even though there would be no proper Greek government to enforce the conditions of the bailout, the official said: "No one would expect a non-existent government to be passing legislation."

"We will provide enough funds for Greece to stay afloat for as long as the political decision is clarified," the first euro zone official said.

"There is no use letting them default in the middle of things. That is what yesterday was all about - giving them enough money to stay afloat and not induce new chaos if people are not paid, but not giving them more than the bare minimum to discourage parties which say that 'we can do whatever we want and they will still save us because it is in the EU's interest.'"

[Colbert]

SYSRISA is a joke. There is absolutely NO POSSIBILITIES to refuse the bailout AND stay in the eurozone.

At the end of the day, a choice must be made by SYRISA.

[ModerateCoward]

So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.

No. Only the first three parties get the chance to explore if there is a possibility to form a coalition government. If they fail then the President will summon to the presidential mansion all the heads of the parties which have elected deputies.   

[Bacon King]

So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.

No. Only the first three parties get the chance to explore if there is a possibility to form a coalition government.

Up to four parties, hypothetically, if two of them are tied in seat count

If they fail then the President will summon to the presidential mansion all the heads of the parties which have elected deputies.   

Well, the Constitution says the President summons all parties, but the precedent from 1989 was that only the three biggest parties were invited. That gives Papoulias enough leeway to get away with ignoring Golden Dawn, I'd think, but no reason he'd not invite any of the other parties.

[Peter the Lefty]

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

[I left.]

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

So is it now pretty much certain that new elections will happen?

[Vasall des Midas]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.

The coup has already happened, and the EU has committed it.
But it probably wouldn't be willing to countenance open military involvement.

ag, you got the German government's objective here all wrong. It is to prevent anybody to leave the Euro, under any circumstances - neither voluntarily nor involuntarily - as that would likely destroy it entirely. Which beyond economic uncertainty would also be a gigantic prestige blow.
If that means Greece cannot have an elected government, cannot have any sort of economic recovery, and px will eventually be forced to emigrate to the US in order to escape starvation, then so be it.
They still think they're doing well economically out of this crisis because of teh reforms yaddah yaddah. There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

[Californian Tony]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.

The coup has already happened, and the EU has committed it.
But it probably wouldn't be willing to countenance open military involvement.

ag, you got the German government's objective here all wrong. It is to prevent anybody to leave the Euro, under any circumstances - neither voluntarily nor involuntarily - as that would likely destroy it entirely. Which beyond economic uncertainty would also be a gigantic prestige blow.
If that means Greece cannot have an elected government, cannot have any sort of economic recovery, and px will eventually be forced to emigrate to the US in order to escape starvation, then so be it.
They still think they're doing well economically out of this crisis because of teh reforms yaddah yaddah. There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

I'm sure they will eventually have to face reality at some point. I can't imagine anyone could possibly perseverate in this view in spite of evidence.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just to clarify things. When I say it won't be a coup I mean (besides the fact that it will be done in an ostensibly constitutional way) that the military won't actually be running things. There will be a political, pro-European government that will enact the reforms and other measures that have been stalled due to public opposition, without any input or involvement by the generals and the admirals. They will merely act to preserve law and order and prevent any kind of destructive disruptions like the ones caused by the taxi drivers last summer or the members of KKE which close the ports every now and then.

Damn! I never thought that I would actually discuss something like this in the year 2012.

[Vasall des Midas]

They may very well have been approached already when Papandreou was forced out.
I just don't think there'll be any public pronouncement from the military. That would be impossible to sell here.