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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 57843 times)
Beet
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« Reply #575 on: May 11, 2012, 11:15:54 am »
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There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

So you agree with the far-right Austrian types then, that it all must end in doom?

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

That is not good at all. By that kind of thinking, no democratic party should carry the burden of governance now. Even it would be a very risky proposition for Tsipras.
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« Reply #576 on: May 11, 2012, 11:26:42 am »
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No. Or nyes. I agree the Euro has major construction flaws that didn't matter only as long as nobody cared.
And alas, these problems are largely due to Germany winning the negotiations on how it was to be set up but Southern Europe won on who was to be included, ie everybody who wanted to. Which latter victory, hilariously, is thanks in part to Britain's unwillingness to join the Euro and our desire to make it a "success story" anyways. A fully integrated joint currency of only Germany-France-Benelux, with the rest of the EU connected to it in much the same way as it was in the 90s, including the possibility to opt out, would I think have weathered the crisis fine.)
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« Reply #577 on: May 11, 2012, 11:30:12 am »
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Merkel looks sane enough to me. In particular, it does begin to seem she realizes, that, short of incorporating Greece into Bavaria (Smiley) ), there aren't many ways to keep Greece in the Eurozone of which Germany would want to be a part. The excuse that Greece is no longer a democracy would be appropriate enough to cut the line.
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« Reply #578 on: May 11, 2012, 11:37:52 am »
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Merkel and begun to realize anything really do not belong in one sentence. She has deeply held unchangeable convictions until they're replaced with completely different deeply held unchangeable convictions. (It is so obvious she's a Lutheran parson's daughter. Grin )
(Other members of her government or her party... ah, that's a different matter.)

Though frankly, Syriza being able to form a government and official Greece publicly repudiating all the bad things she has done to them would be a stronger push factor by far for her than Greece being "no longer a democracy". Who is or isn't a democracy is still a question to be decided by our media, after all, and only somewhat affected by the facts on the ground.
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« Reply #579 on: May 11, 2012, 11:53:24 am »
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Never expected you to sound so apocalyptic Smiley)

Let's agree on something, at least. Either Syriza (or the like), eventually, form an anti-austerity government or Greece ceases to be a democracy. In the former case Greece will be kicked out of the euro. In the latter case it will be kicked out of both euro and Europe. Merkel, whatever you say of her, is a good politician, who can count that far.

And, no, what's a democracy and what's not is, usually, fairly straightforward - straightforward enough for the (foreign) media not being able to define it.
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« Reply #580 on: May 11, 2012, 12:12:25 pm »
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Never expected you to sound so apocalyptic Smiley)

Let's agree on something, at least. Either Syriza (or the like), eventually, form an anti-austerity government or Greece ceases to be a democracy. In the former case Greece will be kicked out of the euro. In the latter case it will be kicked out of both euro and Europe. Merkel, whatever you say of her, is a good politician, who can count that far.
I don't see where you're getting the notion from that anybody in the European ptb or in their media - has counted that far yet. It is blatantly obvious that they haven't (though they may well be getting there.) and that they're holding out hope for a government that fulfills their (to an extent flexible) minimum standards, regarding both democracy and austerity/their power and influence (heh, they're spending money on it.) I mean, it's not as if the current Greek government is elected. It's not as if the current Italian government is elected. It's not as if Belgium has had elected governments for most of the past few years. And it's not as if these people see anything whatsoever wrong with that.
Merkel fully expected Sarkozy to pull through. No one taking his news on the issue from German tv would have remotely shared our expectation that he was utterly done for. They're lost in their own bubble where what they're doing is right and everybody will be made to see that eventually. It happens when you don't talk to anybody outside the circle.
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« Reply #581 on: May 12, 2012, 09:01:48 am »
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On a related note, the Intrade prices in these markets has gone up markedly in the last week or so:

Any country currently using the Euro to announce the intention to drop it...
before Dec. 31, 2012: 42.0
before Dec. 31, 2013: 60.0
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« Reply #582 on: May 12, 2012, 09:20:22 am »
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Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...
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« Reply #583 on: May 12, 2012, 01:14:37 pm »
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If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy.
Since Greek Euro membership is the main problem now, thats not a good solution.

At the same time,they can't quit the Euro without quitting the EU.

A late reply... but it may be a good solution for preserving the euro. While it would be fine if Greece alone left the euro, unfortunately Greece leaving the euro a this juncture with so many other countries' issues unresolved would set off contagion. That would either force the ECB to intervene massively - if it does not the entire euro will end. Even that even big majorities in Greece - even SYRIZA supports the euro, that would not be an optimal outcome.

To prevent contagion and preserve the euro, Greece could be cut off from aid but stay on the currency. This would force it to undergo austerity yet at the same time it would not require politicians to approve austerity. But nor would it require the government to violate democracy. The Greek government would simply stop operating for a period of time, in certain areas. Such as, civil servants do not get paid, or the mail does not get delivered, and such and such. It would be horrible, but give the Greeks a taste and then more time to think whether they really want to go back to the Drachma or not. At this point, Greek electorate is not thinking clearly. It is a solution that is compatible with German-demands of austerity, current Greek preferences to stay in the euro, and democracy.
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« Reply #584 on: May 12, 2012, 01:38:18 pm »
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Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...
Actually Syriza will not get the 50 seat bonus unless they manage to merge their coalition into one party.  They are legally a coalition, and thus inelgible, so even if they placed first in the popular vote and ND second, ND would get the 50 seat bonus (assuming, again, that they are still a coalition).  I would hope that would be enough to spark major riots.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 02:03:22 pm by Yelnoc »Logged

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« Reply #585 on: May 12, 2012, 01:57:35 pm »
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Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...
Actually Syriza will not get the 50 seat bonus unless they manage to merge their coalition into one party.  They are legally a coalition, and thus inelgible, so even if they placed first in the popular vote and ND second, ND would get the 50 seat bonus (assuming, again, that they are still a coalition).  I would that would be enough to spark major riots.

If that's so, ND would get 109 seats (+1), SYRIZA would get 73 (+21), and the others would be unchanged.
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« Reply #586 on: May 12, 2012, 02:45:26 pm »
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Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.
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« Reply #587 on: May 12, 2012, 07:00:35 pm »
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Syriza's position:

"Syriza argues that Greece can abandon the bailout and European leaders will not carry out their threats to withhold funding, because they cannot risk the damage to other EU countries that would be caused by a Greek collapse. "They will be begging us to take the money," Syriza's deputy, Dimitris Stratoulis, claimed on Friday."

Really? These are the people whom the Greek voters want to bet the future of their country on?
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« Reply #588 on: May 12, 2012, 07:02:33 pm »
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Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.
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« Reply #589 on: May 12, 2012, 07:08:37 pm »
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Syriza's position:

"Syriza argues that Greece can abandon the bailout and European leaders will not carry out their threats to withhold funding, because they cannot risk the damage to other EU countries that would be caused by a Greek collapse. "They will be begging us to take the money," Syriza's deputy, Dimitris Stratoulis, claimed on Friday."

Really? These are the people whom the Greek voters want to bet the future of their country on?

These people are just a bunch of jokers. Today another of their prominent members told that they would force people with over 20000 euros income to loan 100 euros every month to the poors.
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« Reply #590 on: May 12, 2012, 07:09:16 pm »
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Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.

Yes but only Germany can choose growth for Europe. The idea that Greece can choose growth within the Euro is the fatal lie of Syriza. Will Germans really be begging Greece to take the money? Name one German who would- it can be anybody.
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« Reply #591 on: May 12, 2012, 07:48:39 pm »
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Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.
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« Reply #592 on: May 12, 2012, 09:51:01 pm »
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everybody will don't care but...i had read that the royalist party of greece was forbidden to run on the election. Apparently, because they don't want to be loyal to the republican consitution.

At the same time, golden showerdawn can run... :/
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« Reply #593 on: May 12, 2012, 11:17:18 pm »
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Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.

Well sure, I agree with that. But with regard to the topic of this thread (Greece 2012) it is Syriza that is lying to the people about its platform- a pure fantasy. If they try to implement it, they may not end up any better than PASOK. And at that point you have the mainstream and the radical left discredited - who is left? Hint: the name has a shiny element in it, and a time of day.
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« Reply #594 on: May 12, 2012, 11:39:51 pm »
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Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.

Well sure, I agree with that. But with regard to the topic of this thread (Greece 2012) it is Syriza that is lying to the people about its platform- a pure fantasy. If they try to implement it, they may not end up any better than PASOK. And at that point you have the mainstream and the radical left discredited - who is left? Hint: the name has a shiny element in it, and a time of day.


SYRIZA has a very clear position.  What they're saying is that Greece needs to finally tax its rich (and that's where the money will come to pay for the social safety net that is collapsing due to Merkel's policies).  They're also saying that under EU laws no one has the right to force Greece out of the eurozone, which was confirmed by the Austrian Finance Minister, and it wouldn't benefit the the other Eurozone countries either as it would lead to a great amount of instability in all Mediterrenean economies.  The other thing they're saying is that Greece must begin producing green energy (solar, wind), something they obviously have in abundance.  Don't forget that SYRIZA along with being a leftist party is also a green party.
Finally when a country has been in a recession for 5 years, at some point the austerity has to stop, if only for humanitarian reasons.
 
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« Reply #595 on: May 13, 2012, 12:07:21 am »
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Except Syriza can't end austerity, even if they're right about the euro thing (which is uncertain).

The problem with austerity is this... after 4 years of recession, why haven't prices come down? Why hasn't the current account deficit been eliminated? Greece is getting all the pain of austerity but none of the benefit. That is the real riddle here. But it's more an economics question, off topic.
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« Reply #596 on: May 13, 2012, 12:31:42 am »
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Greece, probably, can't be kicked out of the euro: but, once it starts acting unilaterally, the euro will soon become so hot for it, that it will run kicking and screaming to the exit itself, all completely voluntarily. The general capital controls will be introduced by the Greeks themselves, in a desperate attempt to keep their own banking system from collapsing (it is not unlikely, that the banks will be nationalized, anyway). Also, most likely, they will quickly be forced to start paying its domestic obligations in IOUs: there would simply not be enough cash. Whether those IOUs or money in Greek bank accounts at that point is still technically denominated in euros or not won't matter much: it all will trade at a steep discount to euro either in the open, or in the black market, if doing it in the open is prohibited. That's all.
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« Reply #597 on: May 13, 2012, 02:54:07 am »
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Except Syriza can't end austerity, even if they're right about the euro thing (which is uncertain).

The problem with austerity is this... after 4 years of recession, why haven't prices come down? Why hasn't the current account deficit been eliminated? Greece is getting all the pain of austerity but none of the benefit. That is the real riddle here. But it's more an economics question, off topic.
Because there are no benefits to austerity.
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« Reply #598 on: May 13, 2012, 07:28:58 am »
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Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.
This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.
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« Reply #599 on: May 13, 2012, 11:56:30 am »
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So I amused myself with a new electoral system for Greece.
The starting point was, really, "what if instead of that 50-seat bonus they just used D'Hondt in the constituencies to achieve pseudo proportionality, like the Spanish and the Portuguese?" The problem is, obviously, that Greek constituencies have between 1 and 42 seats available - people in smaller constituencies would have voted differently with a different electoral system.
So I drew new ones. Grin For essentially lazy reasons, the corridor for constituency size has been set at from 6 to 17 seats (so Athens B was the only place too large and none of the peripheries was too small for a constituency of its own) and new constituencies' seat totals are just component constituencies' seat numbers, tallied. THis also means there are only 288 seats, not 300.

Tally:
ND 76
Syriza 63
PASOK 48
Anel 36
KKE 25
ChrA 18
Dimar 15
Greens 1
LAOS 0. Lack of pronounced strongholds.
Disy 3
DX! 1
Drasi 2
all other 0

the constituencies. Listing all parties winning seats.
Thrace, 10 seats. This splits the current periphery (of East Macedon & Thrace) along the traditional regional line.
ND 23.6, 3
PASOK 19.2, 3
Syriza 14.3, 2
Anel 8.5, 1
Disy 8.1, 1

East Macedon, 7 seats
ND 24.8, 3
PASOK 17.0, 2
Syriza 12.4, 1
Anel 11.2, 1

Serres, 7 seats. In grouping Central Macedon, I left the Thessaloniki A constituency unchanged (duh) and decided to have three rather than two constituencies for the remainder as would technically have been possible. This meant Serres prefecture on the borders with East Macedon stands alone.
ND 30.1, 4
PASOK 15.9, 1
Anel 10.7, 1
Syriza 9.2, 1

Thessaloniki, 16 seats
Syriza 17.5, 4
ND 14.8, 3
Anel 11.6, 3
PASOK 10.4, 2
KKE 9.3, 2
Dimar 7.4, 1
ChrA 6.9, 1

Central Macedon (Thessaloniki B, Chalkidiki, Kilkis), 13 seats
ND 21.9, 4
Syriza 13.7, 2
PASOK 12.9, 2
Anel 11.7, 2
KKE 8.4, 1
ChrA 7.6, 1
Dimar 6.4, 1

West Central Macedon (Pella, Imathia, Pieria), 12 seats
ND 25.2, 4
PASOK 17.1, 2
Anel 11.5, 2
Syriza 10.9, 1
KKE 7.4, 1
ChrA 7.4, 1
Dimar 6.3, 1

West Macedon, 10 seats
ND 25.9, 4
PASOK 15.2, 2
Syriza 13.4, 2
Anel 10.4, 1
KKE 8.0, 1

Epiros, 11 seats
ND 25.0, 4
Syriza 17.6, 3
PASOK 16.4, 2
KKE 8.4, 1
Anel 7.7, 1

Ionian Islands, 6 seats
ND 19.7, 2
Syriza 18.1, 2
KKE 13.4, 1
PASOK 12.8, 1

West Thessaly (the landlocked prefectures of Trikala and Karditsa), 10 seats
ND 26.5, 4
PASOK 16.2, 2
Syriza 13.1, 1
KKE 10.4, 1
Anel 8.4, 1
Dimar 6.6, 1

East Thessaly (Larisa and Magnesia), 13 seats
ND 20.7, 3
Syriza 15.7, 3
PASOK 12.4, 2
KKE 10.4, 2
Anel 10.2, 1
ChrA 6.4, 1
Dimar 6.2, 1

Central Greece and Euboea, 17 seats
ND 18.4, 4
Syriza 17.3, 4
PASOK 13.5, 3
Anel 12.1, 3
ChrA 7.8, 1
KKE 7.8, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1

Aetolia & Akarnania, 8 seats. I split the West Greece region in the logical way, ie along the Gulf of Corinth.
ND 24.1, 3
PASOK 17.0, 2
Syriza 15.3, 1
KKE 8.5, 1
ChrA 7.9, 1

NW Peloponnese, 15 seats (Elis and Achaia)
ND 19.3, 4
Syriza 19.3, 4 (98 votes behind)
PASOK 15.6, 3
Anel 8.8, 1
KKE 7.5, 1
ChrA 6.8, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1

South Peloponnese (Laconia and Messenia), 8 seats
ND 32.9, 4
PASOK 14.1, 2
Syriza 12.3, 1
ChrA 8.8, 1

East Peloponnese (Corinth, Argolis, Arcadia), 10 seats
ND 24.5, 4
PASO 15.2, 2
Syriza 14.1, 2
ChrA 10.1, 1
Anel 8.8, 1

Attica, 12 seats. Identical not only to the constituency but also to the East Attica and West Attica "regional units".
Syriza 19.4, 3
ND 13.7, 2
Anel 13.5, 2
ChrA 9.7, 2
KKE 8.7, 1
PASOK 8.2, 1
Dimar 5.3, 1

Athens City, 17 seats. Identical to the current constituency and the official city.
Syriza 19.1, 4
ND 15.8, 3
PASOK 9.7, 2
Anel 9.0, 2
ChrA 8.8, 2
KKE 8.6, 2
Dimar 6.0, 1
Drasi 4.3, 1

Athens Central Suburban, 8 seats. That part of the Central Athens regional unit outside the city of Athens, and in the current Athens B constituency. Mostly to the city's immediate east with two unfortunate enclaves to its northwest, but I decided to let it stand and use the regional units here.
Syriza 23.3, 3
ND 11.9, 1
KKE 10.7, 1
Anel 10.3, 1
PASOK 9.5, 1
Dimar 6.9, 1

North Athens, 13 seats. This one and the next two identical to regional units of the same name.
Syriza 19.8, 3
ND 14.6, 2
Anel 10.6, 2
PASOK 9.1, 1
KKE 7.5, 1
Dimar 6.7, 1
Drasi 6.1, 1
ChrA 5.7, 1
DX! 5.3, 1

West Athens, 10 seats
Syriza 24.3, 4
KKE 12.5, 2
Anel 11.5, 1
ND 10.0, 1
PASOK 8.6, 1
ChrA 8.2, 1

South Athens, 11 seats
Syriza 20.8, 3
ND 12.5, 2
Anel 11.9, 2
PASOK 9.1, 1
KKE 8.6, 1
Dimar 6.9, 1
ChrA 6.5, 1

Piraeus, 14 seats. The A and B constituencies combined. Also the Piraeus and Islands regional units combined (the division is not identical. Piraeus A is the city and the islands except the largest one of Salamis; Piraeus B is the proletarian portside suburbs west of Piraeus plus Salamis. Piraeus regional unit is the mainland parts of both, Islands is... oh I guess you figured it out).
Syriza 22.0, 4
ND 12.6, 2
Anel 12.5, 2
KKE 10.4, 2
ChrA 9.2, 2
PASOK 8.3, 1
Dimar 6.0, 1

North Aegean, 6 seats
ND 19.8, 2
KKE 16.0, 1
PASOK 14.6, 1
Syriza 13.5, 1
Anel 9.8, 1

South Aegean, 8 seats
ND 18.1, 2
Anel 15.8, 2
PASOK 14.6, 2
Syriza 13.6, 1
Dimar 7.1, 1

Crete, 16 seats
PASOK 18.5, 4
Syriza 15.8, 3
Anel 11.0, 2
Disy 10.1, 2
ND 10.1, 2 (seven votes behind! Cheesy )
Dimar 7.9, 1
KKE 6.2, 1
Greens 4.3, 1
Logged

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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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