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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 60447 times)
Lief
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« Reply #625 on: May 15, 2012, 12:03:57 pm »
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So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Maturity ?!? Goddamnit, this post is so wrong that it depresses me...

Disagreement with the neoliberal establishment is a sign of immaturity and lack of seriousness, Antonio.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #626 on: May 15, 2012, 12:11:21 pm »
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So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

How would voting ND show that sort of 'maturity', exactly?
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« Reply #627 on: May 15, 2012, 12:14:04 pm »
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I would also point out that, so far, the greatest immaturity and most utter lack of realism has been displayed by European neoliberal leaders, and chiefly Merkel.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #628 on: May 15, 2012, 12:14:46 pm »
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So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

How would voting ND show that sort of 'maturity', exactly?

It would be mature in the sense that it would keep the money flowing that Greece needs right now. I understand that people are severely hurting, and that it seems to them to be in their short term interest to stop the pain (i.e. reject austerity), but you can't realistically expect other countries to go along with giving, giving and giving without at least some sign that the people receiving the money are interested in actually solving their budget problems.

I understand the irony of being forced to vote for a party that largely contributed to the crisis in the first place, but voting for the Radical Left isn't an option if Greece desires to avoid the catastrophe Px is describing.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #629 on: May 15, 2012, 12:20:45 pm »
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The money that would flow into Greece so that Greece can pay back the money that it owes, much of which it owes because of the horrific (hilarious?) failure of the first grand plan to solve its fiscal crisis? While things continue to get ever worse on a day-to-day basis in realityland? Election winning slogan right there.
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« Reply #630 on: May 15, 2012, 12:23:05 pm »
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Not, I should add, that I'm especially well disposed towards SYRIZA or whoever. Clearly they are delusional. But then so is everyone else (Merkel and so on absolutely included), if in different ways.
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« Reply #631 on: May 15, 2012, 12:25:41 pm »
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"Some sign?" The entire political establishment has destroyed itself for the sake of "solving their budget problems."

In 2010-11, the Greek government adopted measures to cut spending by 8.7 percent of GDP. In the US, that would be the equivalent of cutting $1.3 trillion off the budget in a single year. In contrast, the US "sequestration" plan only envisions cuts of $1.2 trillion over ten years. So Greece has already done ten times more than, say, the US. Greece's deficit is far lower than numerous other developed countries, including the US and Japan. Yes, I would say they have put "some sign" that they are interested in solving their budget issues. The problem is, the budget is composed of a revenues side as well as a spending side. They are being squeezed to death.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2012, 12:44:59 pm by Beet »Logged

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« Reply #632 on: May 15, 2012, 12:32:16 pm »
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"Some sign?" The entire political establishment has destroyed itself for the sake of "solving their budget problems."


Oh absolutely. But voting in the Radical Left would draw that intention into question and seriously suggest that they are no longer interested in saving.

You can't seriously expect countries like Germany, Austria, etc. to continue giving money away if Greece has a government that openly says it has no intention of paying the money back?
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« Reply #633 on: May 15, 2012, 12:34:54 pm »
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Yes I don't agree with the Radical Left in this case-- they're saying what people want to hear when they probably know it's not true. Or they've convinced themselves something they want to believe with no basis in reality.
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« Reply #634 on: May 15, 2012, 01:04:23 pm »
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If Syriza takes power it's not like they'll commit national economic suicide rather than look like hypocrites, if they had no other option. They're led by a shrewd politician who, if nothing else, certainly realizes at least that being single-handedly responsible for triple digit inflation doesn't bode well in terms of future electoral prospects. 
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« Reply #635 on: May 15, 2012, 01:30:51 pm »
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Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that.  

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.  
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ingemann
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« Reply #636 on: May 15, 2012, 02:01:07 pm »
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I agree with Swedish Cheese, but there are also another aspect people forget:.
Greece is the Euro country which has behaved in the worst possible (and directly criminal) way, they have shown no interest in any kind of reforms, the medicin has had to be forced down their throat, and they have fought every step of way to not having to reform anything. If they are let off the hook it's a insult to Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, who have tried seriously to deal with crisis. And worst of all it would open up for other countries doing the same as Greece.
That's the political reaction, in all likelyhood we would also see rising prices for bonds for all Euro countries, because the market would also see that.
As such it's less bad for the rest of the Eurozone if Greece left, it will also serve as a ugly object lection for other members in the crisis. This doesn't mean I don't feel bad for the Greek people, but I see little alternative for EU than to play hardball against Greece.
In the long term I also think it's best for Greece that EU doesn't back down, the disaster which will hit them, will force their politicians to become responsable.  
« Last Edit: May 15, 2012, 02:09:39 pm by ingemann »Logged
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #637 on: May 15, 2012, 02:05:54 pm »
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So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Hope springs eternal.
But right now I wouldn't bet my house on that.
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« Reply #638 on: May 15, 2012, 02:19:04 pm »
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Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that. 

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.   

Considering their "core positions" are completely unrealistic and that their application has directly resulted into the mess we are currently in, I want to believe that, at some point, right-wing leaders will show some pragmatism and admit that their current policies have utterly failed. Being faced by a ballsy government who tells you "now either you help me or may God have mercy of our souls" can be a huge incentive to that. If they are that smart, this is what they should do.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #639 on: May 15, 2012, 02:39:17 pm »
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The biggest mistake and miscalculation that Merkozy did was when last November they humiliated Papandreou at Cannes, after the latter decided to hold a referendum about whether we wanted to stay in the Euro or return to drachma. They failed to see that by doing that they essentially discredited the only politician who was seriously trying to pass the necessary reforms and opened the can of worms named instability.

If the referendum was held then, the pro-Euro position would have prevailed with 70-80% and nobody would dare to play chicken with the EU like Tsipras does know.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2012, 02:41:33 pm by Landslide Lyndon »Logged

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« Reply #640 on: May 15, 2012, 03:01:45 pm »
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Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that. 

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.   

Considering their "core positions" are completely unrealistic and that their application has directly resulted into the mess we are currently in, I want to believe that, at some point, right-wing leaders will show some pragmatism and admit that their current policies have utterly failed. Being faced by a ballsy government who tells you "now either you help me or may God have mercy of our souls" can be a huge incentive to that. If they are that smart, this is what they should do.

We all want to believe our political opponents will see the light one day and change their wicked ways. Personally I wouldn't want to stake a country on that belief though.

But we will see, Tsipras will be Prime Minister soon enough.   
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Antonio V
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« Reply #641 on: May 15, 2012, 03:11:21 pm »
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We all want to believe our political opponents will see the light one day and change their wicked ways.

Especially when facing, you know, facts.

To be clear, I'm not sure they will. I'm just willing to take the bet, because this is the only way out which doesn't involve a total wrecking of EU's economy.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2012, 03:13:32 pm by Au revoir Nicolas ! »Logged

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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #642 on: May 15, 2012, 03:15:26 pm »
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I hope SYRIZA wins and withdraws from the Eurozone. I'd rather watch the whole world burn than see fellow citizens in the European periphery be subjected to the rape of their economy without their sovereign will being truly exercised. I'd rather the failures of the austeritymongers and the potential crisis they helped to create during the heady boom days be exposed now than see their manufactured problems slowly come to light over the next few years as the neo-liberal vampires suck the lifeblood out of Spain then Portugal then Italy then France. I'm sick of so-called serious people lecturing whole entire nations of people about their profligacy and lazy behavior when the crisis had everything to do with the EU being a flawed project. I'm sick of people treating economics as a morality play to the point where I'd like to see an economic crisis blow up in the face of the Merkels of the world just to see them suffer politically and to see the "center consensus" destroyed permanently.

That's my poorly constructed rant of the day that exposes my sentiments more than my actual policy positions. I've given up on the idea of the European Union actually exercising itself as a legitimate governing body and to me, default is the logical next step. Design a godawful system, get a bad result.
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« Reply #643 on: May 15, 2012, 03:27:17 pm »
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Interesting blog on the Torygraph:

Quote
Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course

Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if Greece is pushed out of the euro.

These assume that relations between Europe and Greece break down in acrimony, with a full-fledged "stuff-you" default on euro liabilities. It assumes a drachma devaluation of 50pc.

Potential losses for the states, including central banks
   
Upper bound of losses Billions €French
State
German
State
TARGET2 liabilities of the Bank of Greece22.730.2
Greek sovereign bonds held by the Eurosyste
m: SMP
9.814
Bilateral loans to Greece in the context
of the first programme
11.415.1
Guarantees to bonds issued by the EFSF to
provide loans to Greece in the context of the
second programme
8.411.2
Guarantees to debts issued by the EFSF
in the context of its participation to the
“Private Sector Involvement” –
restructuration of the Greek debt:
“sweetener”
6.58.6
Guarantees to debts issued by the
EFSF in the context of its participation
to the “Private Sector Involvement” –
restructuration of the Greek debt:
payment of accrued interest
11.4
Guarantees to bonds issued by the
EFSF to provide loans to Greece in order
 to buy back sovereign bonds used by
banks as collateral to obtain funding
from the Eurosystem
7.610.2
Total66.489.8
   
They conclude:

  • The total losses could reach €66.4bn for France and €89.8bn for Germany. These are upper bounds, but even in the case of a partial default, the losses would be huge.
  • Assuming that the new national currency would depreciate by 50 per cent against the euro, which is realistic, the losses for French banks would reach €19.8bn. They would reach €4.5bn for German banks.
   
Sounds about right.

I doubt that the US, China, and the world powers would sit back if the EU tried to "teach Greeks a lesson" by making life Hell for them.

There would be massive global pressure on Europe to handle the exit in a grown-up fashion, with backstops in place to stabilize Greece. The IMF would step in.

The German finance ministry is already drawing up such plans, and quite correctly so (unfortunately roping in the British too to spread the losses, which is a thorny subject).

Needless to say, the real danger is contagion to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, and the deadly linkages between €15 trillion in public and private debt in these countries and the €27 trillion European banking nexus.

This is where any further errors by EU leaders could take the world into full depression.

This nonsense can of course be stopped in ten minutes if the EU:

1) announces that it will equip itself with a real central bank (a lender of last resort) that takes all risk of sovereign default off the table — with conviction and overwhelming force, with no ifs and buts, and no ambushes from the Bundesbank.

2) announces EMU debt-pooling, fiscal union, a joint EMU budget and tax system, and an EMU government as a counterpart for the enhanced the ECB.

Yes, this means rewriting the German constitution, and in effect means the abolition of Germany as a functioning sovereign nation.

My sympathies to the German people. This is what your leaders got you into (without asking permission). It was the elemental implication of monetary union.

We at the Telegraph screamed from rooftops in the early 1990s that EMU was a destroyer of nation states, and democracies. So did the brave German professors. Nobody would listen.

My guess is that German citizens will not accept this implication. If so, we are all stuffed.
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« Reply #644 on: May 15, 2012, 03:51:49 pm »
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All available options are clearly terrible. That is what needs to be said first and foremost.
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« Reply #645 on: May 15, 2012, 04:11:11 pm »
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Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? Tongue

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."
I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.

No clue. We managed to f**k it up so big that I lost track of all the reparations we had to pay.
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« Reply #646 on: May 15, 2012, 04:22:57 pm »
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Given than all options are bad, I'm only saying than the best one is the one stopping the neoliberalism in Europe, before the whole state and safety net is destroyed.
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ingemann
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« Reply #647 on: May 15, 2012, 04:30:41 pm »
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Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? Tongue

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."
I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.

No clue. We managed to f**k it up so big that I lost track of all the reparations we had to pay.

A funny fact, with all the attack by CDU on SSW in Schleswig-Holstein, Denmark gave up any monetary claim against Germany with the Bonn-Copenhagen Declaration in 1955, the same treaty which CDU in Kiel now show themself very hostile to.
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« Reply #648 on: May 15, 2012, 04:31:12 pm »
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Actually not all options are bad. There is a good solution. It is simply for Germany to switch to stimulus, a larger central bank role and perhaps some degree of fiscal union, while Greece enacts those reforms which are necessary to stimulate exports and open the labor market. In the short term, Germany will commit to fiscal transfers to Greece which seem endless, but over time the implementation of labor market reforms will mean German prices and wages will rise relative to Greek ones, and Greece will regain competitiveness. As this happens, Greece will become a net exporter to Germany and earn enough euro credits to repay Germany.
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« Reply #649 on: May 15, 2012, 04:36:13 pm »
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For anyone who has the stomach, here is a really dystopian view of the future in case of a Greel exit from the Euro.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-greece-exits-here-what-happens
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