Greece 2012
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Bacon King
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« Reply #775 on: May 20, 2012, 04:09:45 PM »

I've taken a look at the polls so far; here's a bit of analysis:

  • I don't think you can really conclude that PASOK is rising. Their differing results appears to mostly be pollsters' different methodologies being applied. All three firms that have released two polls in the last two weeks all show PASOK essentially stable. So, while no poll agrees on how well PASOK is actually polling, it appears to be statistical noise rather than anything else.
  • SYRIZA is definitely up from their result in May. The different methodologies, however, muddle one from seeing whatever trend exists. The two firms that had them in the high twenties a week ago are showing big declines now, while if you exclude those results there appears to be a steady increase from 20% to around 22% for SYRIZA.
  • I have no idea what's going on with ND. Marc/Alpha is showing them up 2.8% while Metron is showing them down 2%, in pretty much the same time frame. All pollsters generally agree that ND is polling somewhere around 22% though, plus or minus a couple of points; their results are definitely more stable between pollsters than most other parties (especially SYRIZA).
  • ANEL and KKE are definitely losing support. This is notable because pretty much everyone overestimated KKE in the May polls.
  • XA is certainly losing support, but I worry that there might be some sort of "shy Nazi" effect, where some prospective Golden Dawn voters don't want to admit who they support to a random phone caller. I wish I could read Greek to really look into this; I'd love to see if there's a disparity in Golden Dawn support between live-call and automated pollsters.
  • Remember that in May pretty much every pollster significantly overestimated ND and PASOK, while seriously underestimating SYRIZA. I assume they've all corrected the way they assign undecideds now, but I have no actual evidence of that (again, I wish I could read Greek! Tongue).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #776 on: May 20, 2012, 04:51:15 PM »


Not necessarily masochists. There are plenty of enthusiasts for swingeing austerity who believe that swingeing austerity will principally affect others and not themselves.
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Iannis
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« Reply #777 on: May 20, 2012, 05:03:43 PM »


I love this party, I hope they will join DRASI to form a bigger force
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Zuza
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« Reply #778 on: May 20, 2012, 10:08:37 PM »

For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.
I understand, I asked about how likely that both ND and PASOK will agree to form coalition. Before 6 May ND rejected such possibility. What now say ND and PASOK leaders?
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #779 on: May 21, 2012, 01:29:32 AM »

For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.
I understand, I asked about how likely that both ND and PASOK will agree to form coalition. Before 6 May ND rejected such possibility. What now say ND and PASOK leaders?

It's a virtual certainty. Of course having just 151-52 could be problematic. But if they manage to get 160+ together, then it's a done deal.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #780 on: May 21, 2012, 05:21:01 AM »


Not necessarily masochists. There are plenty of enthusiasts for swingeing austerity who believe that swingeing austerity will principally affect others and not themselves.
Upper income ultra-populist class warriors.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #781 on: May 21, 2012, 06:50:40 PM »

Bakoyannis accepted Samaras' offer and she'll support him.
 

Not necessarily masochists. There are plenty of enthusiasts for swingeing austerity who believe that swingeing austerity will principally affect others and not themselves.
Upper income ultra-populist class warriors.
DX refused to accept Liberal Alliance in a pro-European coalition with Drasi. Manos is very surprised, but Tzimeros don't want to lose conservative voters because Valianatos is a gay rights activist.
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Lasitten
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« Reply #782 on: May 24, 2012, 03:51:33 PM »

Reuters now announces that SYRIZA is polling 30 % and ND 26 %.
How can the situation differ so much? Elections going to be very interesting.

PASOK seems to be not rising from the 3rd place. Have Greeks lost their trust on PASOK? And are the people who usually vote for PASOK now voting SYRIZA?

Ou, I cannot post the link.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #783 on: May 24, 2012, 03:57:30 PM »

Welcome!

You can just post the URL and we can copypaste it into our address bars, I think.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #784 on: May 24, 2012, 07:19:58 PM »

This is the poll, presumably: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120524-715300.html

Public Issue, released 5/24
SYRIZA: 30%
ND: 26%
PASOK: 15.5%
ANEL: 8%
DIMAR: 6.5%
KKE: 5%
XA: 4%
DIXA-DRASI: 3%

DATA RC, released 5/24
ND: 23.5%
SYRIZA: 23%
PASOK: 10.6%
ANEL: 5.3%
KKE: 4.6%
XA: 5.1%
DIMAR: 3.3%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #785 on: May 25, 2012, 12:30:29 AM »

Of those two polls, note that the former pollster tries to predict undecideds by determining how they lean, while the latter just reports undecideds like a US poll would. So it looks like there's like 25% undecided, most of them on the left (if you compare with the first poll).
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RodPresident
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« Reply #786 on: May 25, 2012, 12:35:25 AM »

In my opinion there are some undecideds on right too between ND and DX-Drasi coalition. Many of them see Samaras as too vacilating.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #787 on: May 25, 2012, 11:18:05 AM »

GD and KKE lost ground.  predictably
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Lasitten
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« Reply #788 on: May 26, 2012, 08:07:16 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2012, 08:13:00 AM by Lasitten »

It's getting interesting because the Finnish media is full of news about Greece elections and one day they're predict that SYRIZA is going to win and other day all the media is for ND. It's like all Finns are interested for the result...

I wonder what's going to happen to DIMAR. Are supporters moving to vote SYRIZA or back to voting PASOK?

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #789 on: May 26, 2012, 12:55:44 PM »

Four new polls today and they all show ND ahead by margins from 1,1 to 5,7%.

Kappa Research



ALCO



MARC



And MRB has the following results:

ND                    23,3%
SYRIZA             22,2%
PASOK              13,8%
ANEL                     7%
DIMAR                5,7%
KKE                       5%
XA                         4%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #790 on: May 26, 2012, 01:25:32 PM »

Christine Lagarde says that it is payback time for Greece

CHRISTINE Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that she had more sympathy for children in Africa than austerity-hit Greeks, who could help themselves by paying their taxes.

In an interview with The Guardian, the managing director of the IMF said that she was not worried by the economic and social impact of austerity on the Mediterranean country.

"No, I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens," Ms Lagarde told the British newspaper.

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."

Ms Lagarde went on to say that she thought "equally" about Greeks who were deprived of public services and of Greek citizens who did not pay their tax.

"I think they should also help themselves collectively," she said. Asked how, she replied: "By all paying their tax".

Asked by The Guardian if she was essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they had had a nice time and that it was now payback time, she responded: "That's right".

Ms Lagarde reiterated that the IMF had no intention of softening the austerity demands to which Greece agreed in return for a multi-billion euro bailout.

Opinion polls suggest that Syriza, a leftist, anti-austerity party that came came second in Greece's May 6 election, could to win the vote at a new election on June 17. There are fears that if Greece turns its back on the austerity program, it could be forced out of the eurozone, triggering a Europe-wide crisis.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/christine-lagarde-says-that-it-is-payback-time-for-greece/story-fnawdwo8-1226367715480
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #791 on: May 26, 2012, 02:02:53 PM »

Such a kind heart, our Christine. Almost too good for this fallen world.
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argentarius
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« Reply #792 on: May 26, 2012, 05:48:31 PM »

What a bitch.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #793 on: May 26, 2012, 06:21:46 PM »

A certain word that begins with a "c" comes to mind.
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ingemann
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« Reply #794 on: May 26, 2012, 06:29:05 PM »

Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #795 on: May 26, 2012, 06:35:29 PM »

Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.
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ingemann
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« Reply #796 on: May 26, 2012, 07:22:33 PM »

Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

6 out of 10 Greeks do not pay income tax
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-12-31/world/greece.taxes_1_income-taxes-greek-press-tax-evasion?_s=PM:WORLD

27,5% of the economy are in the so-called shadolw economy
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki


In tax fines Greece has an embezzle rate of 40% (with further 40% simply being written off)
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316094

This was not a few bad apples, this is a general problem, and unless they take responsibility for the action of a major part of their population, the problem won't go away, no matter how much other pay for their irresponsibility. Greece aren't the first country which has problems with using more money than they got in, my own country had the same problem in the 80ties, and the result was that our tax rate was raised from 40% to 50%, we put high taxes on foreign products we didn't produce ourself (which is why a car in Denmark cost 300% of a car in most other countries) plus on gasolin to improve the BOP. The results was ugly, but as result Denmark are one of Europe richest countries today, a netto-exporter with a strong valuta. If we choosed to do nothing, the Danish valuta would have been a complete joke today and our living standards lower.

My biggest problem with Greece is that I don't hear a alternative to austerity, what the Greeks suggest are to keep things as they are. That's unacceptable and people can whine just as much about  all us evil foreigners seeing the Greeks as lazy, corrupt and dishonest, it doesn't change the fact that Greece need to change, and if they doesn't other countries will find continued financial support to Greece completely unacceptable.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #797 on: May 26, 2012, 07:50:24 PM »

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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #798 on: May 26, 2012, 08:23:01 PM »

Of course this my general problem with modern Social Democracy. People who screw things up for themself are always victims and should never ever have to fix their problems by them selves, while people who have done everything right are horrible people if they don't do everything to help the people who screwed up. It's worthless as a domestic social policy and just as worthless when you try to apply on international relations.

The attitude on this site that Merkel and the IMF are horible people because they expect Greece and other nations they pour money into to get their bloody act together irks me. Good on people to remind me why I'm most certainly a right-winger.

Greece needs to get people to start paying their taxes, end of story. It's actually one of the reasons I think SYRIZA winning would be preferable. ND is a failed party, and obviously they're not gonna make wealthy Greek tax-evaders pay their taxes. SYRIZA could maybe. 

 
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Vosem
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« Reply #799 on: May 26, 2012, 08:30:08 PM »

Christine Lagarde says that it is payback time for Greece

CHRISTINE Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that she had more sympathy for children in Africa than austerity-hit Greeks, who could help themselves by paying their taxes.

In an interview with The Guardian, the managing director of the IMF said that she was not worried by the economic and social impact of austerity on the Mediterranean country.

"No, I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens," Ms Lagarde told the British newspaper.

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."

Ms Lagarde went on to say that she thought "equally" about Greeks who were deprived of public services and of Greek citizens who did not pay their tax.

"I think they should also help themselves collectively," she said. Asked how, she replied: "By all paying their tax".

Asked by The Guardian if she was essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they had had a nice time and that it was now payback time, she responded: "That's right".

Ms Lagarde reiterated that the IMF had no intention of softening the austerity demands to which Greece agreed in return for a multi-billion euro bailout.

Opinion polls suggest that Syriza, a leftist, anti-austerity party that came came second in Greece's May 6 election, could to win the vote at a new election on June 17. There are fears that if Greece turns its back on the austerity program, it could be forced out of the eurozone, triggering a Europe-wide crisis.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/christine-lagarde-says-that-it-is-payback-time-for-greece/story-fnawdwo8-1226367715480

Well, yes. When you receive something, you should pay it back. When it is lump sums of money, you should pay it back with interest.
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