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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #1150 on: June 19, 2012, 01:03:57 pm »
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Are you talking seriously, Dereich? Do you want Greece expelled and with this odd XA-KKE coalition in office? There is too much to say about Spanish regions (or "autonomies") but your statement is essentially false. They are a part of the problem, of course, but they have only a little share. The big mess is in the banks and in the private debt, all consecuencies of the real estate bubble.

Of course not. But the markets seem to have a strange fixation on "uncertainty". I'd go so far as to say that uncertainty is the main driver of the current crisis. Not so that, that is, that there is a need to force markets to not worry or something. European governments can and should deal with the structual issues the plague growth. But after seeing how markets have reacted as of late I'd guess that the only thing that could make them certain of anything would be a distaterous result, like a KKE-XA coalition. And you have to admit that a KKE-XA coalition would be the most interesting political spectacle in Europe since Berlisconi left.

As for Spain, I should have been more clear. The regions are a problem in the deficit battles, not in the financial troubles. I sort of look at it as two different but interconnected malaises: one having to do with the financial system, the other a confidence problem.  I've probably also been overestimating the impact of the regions on the deficit/uncertainty thing because I've been hearing a lot about it lately from a Catalan friend of mine.

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« Reply #1151 on: June 19, 2012, 01:44:43 pm »
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As for Spain, I should have been more clear. The regions are a problem in the deficit battles, not in the financial troubles. I sort of look at it as two different but interconnected malaises: one having to do with the financial system, the other a confidence problem.  I've probably also been overestimating the impact of the regions on the deficit/uncertainty thing because I've been hearing a lot about it lately from a Catalan friend of mine.

The biggest share of the deficit is in the Spanish state not in the regions. Spain has still a relatively low deficit if you comapare it with other countries in Europe. Private debt is even bigger than public deficit. In Spain the debate about the budget cuts in the regions is polluted. The problem is real but there has been a lot of demagogy because of the battle between nationalism (central Spain vs. peripheric regions) and the political battles between PP and PSOE. Esperanza Aguirre, the conservative PM of Madrid region, showed off her economic management as an example of virtue. Now we know that Madrid has a deficit wich was unrevealed, just like in Greece but in a much lower scale, of course.

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And you have to admit that a KKE-XA coalition would be the most interesting political spectacle in Europe since Berlisconi left.

It would be interesting if you see the bullfight behind the barrier, as we say in Spain. Berlusconi and these Greek Nazis aren't funny actually.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2012, 01:51:40 pm by yellow brick road »Logged

Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #1152 on: June 19, 2012, 02:22:25 pm »
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And you have to admit that a KKE-XA coalition would be the most interesting political spectacle in Europe since Berlisconi left.

It would be interesting if you see the bullfight behind the barrier, as we say in Spain. Berlusconi and these Greek Nazis aren't funny actually.

Its possible to laugh at things going on across the Atlantic that I'm sure are horrifying to someone closer. Just look at that incident with the XA member attacking that KKE woman on televison. I'm sure to a Greek that was terrible and a national shame; that didn't make it unfunny here.  Similary, I'm sure most Americans wouldn't think the concept of a Donald Trump presidency would be very funny, but Europeans would probably think its hilarious. Berlisconi,  Greece, and other European farces could directly affect you and your country's livelyhoods, its not unresonable that you view them as more serious issues then I do.

Oh and as for Spain; now I know. Thanks for the corrections.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2012, 08:21:15 am by Dereich »Logged
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« Reply #1153 on: June 20, 2012, 07:19:48 am »
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Samaras to be sworn in later today.

It's funny 'cos he's in over his head.
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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #1154 on: June 20, 2012, 08:23:11 am »
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What's with DIMAR joining? Didn't they reject this exact coalition less then a month ago?
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« Reply #1155 on: June 20, 2012, 09:24:10 am »
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What's with DIMAR joining? Didn't they reject this exact coalition less then a month ago?

Yeah, but now they don't want a 3rd election.
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« Reply #1156 on: June 20, 2012, 01:23:44 pm »
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I don't understand DIMAR too, they're giving legitimacy to this government. I believe now that Kouvelis is most hated politician in Greece. Maybe Samaras was fearing that government can suffer more dissidences.
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« Reply #1157 on: June 20, 2012, 02:35:56 pm »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...
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« Reply #1158 on: June 20, 2012, 02:37:57 pm »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Yeah, let's just ignore the whole probability of Greece finally falling off the cliff, dragging Europe down with it if there was a third election.
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« Reply #1159 on: June 20, 2012, 03:52:46 pm »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Not only that- if Dimar didn't enter government, they'd probably lose a lot of their moderate voters to PASOK. 
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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #1160 on: June 20, 2012, 03:57:39 pm »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Not only that- if Dimar didn't enter government, they'd probably lose a lot of their moderate voters to PASOK. 

I would have guessed that DIMAR ran on a "we're more moderate then the SYRIZA crazies but AREN'T the ones who screwed up the country in the first place like PASOK" kind of platform.
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« Reply #1161 on: June 20, 2012, 04:04:07 pm »

I don't understand DIMAR too, they're giving legitimacy to this government.

And this is a bad thing... why exactly?

I don't get why the far-left is seemingly crossing fingers for this government to be a disaster, so that Greece falls off the cliff and hence sends the whole world down the drain. Don't you guys know when to stop petty politics and actually think about other factors that partisanship and ideology?
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« Reply #1162 on: June 20, 2012, 04:51:11 pm »
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I don't understand DIMAR too, they're giving legitimacy to this government.

And this is a bad thing... why exactly?

I don't get why the far-left is seemingly crossing fingers for this government to be a disaster, so that Greece falls off the cliff and hence sends the whole world down the drain. Don't you guys know when to stop petty politics and actually think about other factors that partisanship and ideology?

Its not about good vs. bad. Its just strange to see the party act this way. It will kill them in the long term.
We have an analytical focus on this, not a normative/emotional like you seem to have on this matter.
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« Reply #1163 on: June 20, 2012, 06:46:49 pm »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Not only that- if Dimar didn't enter government, they'd probably lose a lot of their moderate voters to PASOK. 

Exactly. DIMAR ran on a platform promising to join the government whichever party came first and acting as a moderating factor that would stop the extremes from ND and SYRIZA from taking total control of the government. And that's exactly what they did.

For example, they vetoed Samaras's intention to put in the government fascists like Voridis and Georgiadis and to repeal our version of the DREAM act which opened a path to citizenship for immigrants that came here as kids and attended greek schools.
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« Reply #1164 on: June 22, 2012, 09:34:05 am »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Not only that- if Dimar didn't enter government, they'd probably lose a lot of their moderate voters to PASOK.  

Exactly. DIMAR ran on a platform promising to join the government whichever party came first and acting as a moderating factor that would stop the extremes from ND and SYRIZA from taking total control of the government. And that's exactly what they did.

For example, they vetoed Samaras's intention to put in the government fascists like Voridis and Georgiadis and to repeal our version of the DREAM act which opened a path to citizenship for immigrants that came here as kids and attended greek schools.

Wow...you'd think PASOK would've vetoed that decision anyway.  
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« Reply #1165 on: June 23, 2012, 07:32:06 pm »
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The number of female MPs by party:

SYRIZA 22
ND 18
Independent Greeks 7
DIMAR 5
KKE 4
PASOK 3
Golden eggs 1 (Michaloliakos' wife)
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« Reply #1166 on: June 26, 2012, 10:35:20 am »
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I don't understand DIMAR too, they're giving legitimacy to this government.

And this is a bad thing... why exactly?

I don't get why the far-left is seemingly crossing fingers for this government to be a disaster, so that Greece falls off the cliff and hence sends the whole world down the drain. Don't you guys know when to stop petty politics and actually think about other factors that partisanship and ideology?
Aren't you pushing this a little bit too far ?...

Greece won't fall off anything. They will tear it apart, and it will survive. States are not companies you know. Stop believing that what's best for the market and companies is also best for the people.

The far-left, which is just plain left now that "the left" is, well, not the left anymore, is not crossing fingers for this government to be a disaster : it knows that this government will be a disaster for the people, because it will only think in matter of budget cuts. The left is "crossing fingers" worldwide to start treating people like, well, people, and not employees that you can fire or livestock.
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« Reply #1167 on: June 27, 2012, 07:44:51 am »
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So I amused myself with a new electoral system for Greece.
The starting point was, really, "what if instead of that 50-seat bonus they just used D'Hondt in the constituencies to achieve pseudo proportionality, like the Spanish and the Portuguese?" The problem is, obviously, that Greek constituencies have between 1 and 42 seats available - people in smaller constituencies would have voted differently with a different electoral system.
So I drew new ones. ;D For essentially lazy reasons, the corridor for constituency size has been set at from 6 to 17 seats (so Athens B was the only place too large and none of the peripheries was too small for a constituency of its own) and new constituencies' seat totals are just component constituencies' seat numbers, tallied. THis also means there are only 288 seats, not 300.

Tally:
ND 76
Syriza 63
PASOK 48
Anel 36
KKE 25
ChrA 18
Dimar 15
Greens 1
LAOS 0. Lack of pronounced strongholds.
Disy 3
DX! 1
Drasi 2
all other 0
ND 107
Syriza 99
PASOK 39
Anel 16
ChrA 12
Dimar 12
KKE 3. What a disaster of a result, with a sprinkling of bad luck (under this system) on top to really rub it in. Entirely deserved, of course.
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the constituencies. Listing all parties winning seats.
Thrace, 10 seats. This splits the current periphery (of East Macedon & Thrace) along the traditional regional line.
ND 23.6, 3
PASOK 19.2, 3
Syriza 14.3, 2
Anel 8.5, 1
Disy 8.1, 1
ND 32.2, 4
Syriza 23.1, 3
PASOK 15.9, 2
Dimar 8.6, 1

The Disy vote in the Rhodopes transferred to Dimar en bloc.

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East Macedon, 7 seats
ND 24.8, 3
PASOK 17.0, 2
Syriza 12.4, 1
Anel 11.2, 1
ND 34.7, 3
Syriza 19.3, 2
PASOK 15.5, 1
Anel 9.0, 1

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Serres, 7 seats. In grouping Central Macedon, I left the Thessaloniki A constituency unchanged (duh) and decided to have three rather than two constituencies for the remainder as would technically have been possible. This meant Serres prefecture on the borders with East Macedon stands alone.
ND 30.1, 4
PASOK 15.9, 1
Anel 10.7, 1
Syriza 9.2, 1
ND 40.1, 4
Syriza 16.3, 2
PASOK 14.9, 1

Quote
Thessaloniki, 16 seats
Syriza 17.5, 4
ND 14.8, 3
Anel 11.6, 3
PASOK 10.4, 2
KKE 9.3, 2
Dimar 7.4, 1
ChrA 6.9, 1
ND 27.8, 6
Syriza 27.0, 5
PASOK 10.2, 2
Anel 8.9, 1
Dimar 7.5, 1
ChrA 6.8, 1

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Central Macedon (Thessaloniki B, Chalkidiki, Kilkis), 13 seats
ND 21.9, 4
Syriza 13.7, 2
PASOK 12.9, 2
Anel 11.7, 2
KKE 8.4, 1
ChrA 7.6, 1
Dimar 6.4, 1
ND 33.3, 5
Syriza 22.3, 3
PASOK 12.4, 2
Anel 8.7, 1
ChrA 7.4, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1

Quote
West Central Macedon (Pella, Imathia, Pieria), 12 seats
ND 25.2, 4
PASOK 17.1, 2
Anel 11.5, 2
Syriza 10.9, 1
KKE 7.4, 1
ChrA 7.4, 1
Dimar 6.3, 1
ND 33.9, 5
Syriza 20.2, 3
PASOK 15.7, 2
Anel 8.3, 1
ChrA 7.4, 1

Quote
West Macedon, 10 seats
ND 25.9, 4
PASOK 15.2, 2
Syriza 13.4, 2
Anel 10.4, 1
KKE 8.0, 1
ND 33.6, 4
Syriza 21.6, 3
PASOK 15.2, 2
Anel 8.0, 1

Quote
Epiros, 11 seats
ND 25.0, 4
Syriza 17.6, 3
PASOK 16.4, 2
KKE 8.4, 1
Anel 7.7, 1
ND 33.7, 5
Syriza 26.9, 4
PASOK 14.4, 2

Quote
Ionian Islands, 6 seats
ND 19.7, 2
Syriza 18.1, 2
KKE 13.4, 1
PASOK 12.8, 1
Syriza 32.7, 3
ND 26.6, 2
PASOK 10.8, 1

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West Thessaly (the landlocked prefectures of Trikala and Karditsa), 10 seats
ND 26.5, 4
PASOK 16.2, 2
Syriza 13.1, 1
KKE 10.4, 1
Anel 8.4, 1
Dimar 6.6, 1
ND 33.9, 5
Syriza 23.9, 3
PASOK 14.1, 2

Quote
East Thessaly (Larisa and Magnesia), 13 seats
ND 20.7, 3
Syriza 15.7, 3
PASOK 12.4, 2
KKE 10.4, 2
Anel 10.2, 1
ChrA 6.4, 1
Dimar 6.2, 1
ND 29.4, 5
Syriza 27.4, 4
PASOK 11.5, 1
Anel 7.5, 1
ChrA 6.9, 1
Dimar 5.9, 1

Quote
Central Greece and Euboea, 17 seats
ND 18.4, 4
Syriza 17.3, 4
PASOK 13.5, 3
Anel 12.1, 3
ChrA 7.8, 1
KKE 7.8, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1
ND 35.0, 6
Syriza 33.9, 6
PASOK 15.2, 2
Anel 9.9, 1
ChrA 9.6, 1
Dimar 6.5, 1
Seems to be something wrong with the may percentages. Seat distribution was calculated from the raw vote totals, though.

Quote
Aetolia & Akarnania, 8 seats. I split the West Greece region in the logical way, ie along the Gulf of Corinth.
ND 24.1, 3
PASOK 17.0, 2
Syriza 15.3, 1
KKE 8.5, 1
ChrA 7.9, 1
ND 32.7, 4
Syriza 25.3, 3
PASOK 14.9, 1

Quote
NW Peloponnese, 15 seats (Elis and Achaia)
ND 19.3, 4
Syriza 19.3, 4 (98 votes behind)
PASOK 15.6, 3
Anel 8.8, 1
KKE 7.5, 1
ChrA 6.8, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1
Syriza 30.1, 5
ND 27.3, 5
PASOK 14.5, 2
ChrA 6.5, 1
Anel 6.5, 1
Dimar 5.9, 1

Quote
South Peloponnese (Laconia and Messenia), 8 seats
ND 32.9, 4
PASOK 14.1, 2
Syriza 12.3, 1
ChrA 8.8, 1
ND 41.4, 4
Syriza 20.1, 2
PASOK 12.7, 1
ChrA 8.8, 1

Quote
East Peloponnese (Corinth, Argolis, Arcadia), 10 seats
ND 24.5, 4
PASOK 15.2, 2
Syriza 14.1, 2
ChrA 10.1, 1
Anel 8.8, 1
ND 33.6, 4
Syriza 23.3, 3
PASOK 14.4, 2
ChrA 9.0, 1

Quote
Attica, 12 seats. Identical not only to the constituency but also to the East Attica and West Attica "regional units".
Syriza 19.4, 3
ND 13.7, 2
Anel 13.5, 2
ChrA 9.7, 2
KKE 8.7, 1
PASOK 8.2, 1
Dimar 5.3, 1
Syriza 30.2, 5
ND 26.5, 4
ChrA 10.0, 1
Anel 9.5, 1
PASOK 7.7, 1

Quote
Athens City, 17 seats. Identical to the current constituency and the official city.
Syriza 19.1, 4
ND 15.8, 3
PASOK 9.7, 2
Anel 9.0, 2
ChrA 8.8, 2
KKE 8.6, 2
Dimar 6.0, 1
Drasi 4.3, 1
ND 30.9, 6
Syriza 27.0, 6
PASOK 8.7, 1
ChrA 7.8, 1
Dimar 7.4, 1
Anel 6.3, 1
KKE 4.7, 1

Quote
Athens Central Suburban, 8 seats. That part of the Central Athens regional unit outside the city of Athens, and in the current Athens B constituency. Mostly to the city's immediate east with two unfortunate enclaves to its northwest, but I decided to let it stand and use the regional units here.
Syriza 23.3, 3
ND 11.9, 1
KKE 10.7, 1
Anel 10.3, 1
PASOK 9.5, 1
Dimar 6.9, 1
Syriza 33.2, 4
ND 23.6, 2
PASOK 9.0, 1
Dimar 7.9, 1

Quote
North Athens, 13 seats. This one and the next two identical to regional units of the same name.
Syriza 19.8, 3
ND 14.6, 2
Anel 10.6, 2
PASOK 9.1, 1
KKE 7.5, 1
Dimar 6.7, 1
Drasi 6.1, 1
ChrA 5.7, 1
DX! 5.3, 1
ND 32.3, 5
Syriza 27.4, 5
Dimar 8.5, 1
PASOK 8.4, 1
Anel 6.7, 1

Quote
West Athens, 10 seats
Syriza 24.3, 4
KKE 12.5, 2
Anel 11.5, 1
ND 10.0, 1
PASOK 8.6, 1
ChrA 8.2, 1
Syriza 36.8, 5
ND 19.3, 2
PASOK 8.3, 1
Anel 8.2, 1
ChrA 7.9, 1

Quote
South Athens, 11 seats
Syriza 20.8, 3
ND 12.5, 2
Anel 11.9, 2
PASOK 9.1, 1
KKE 8.6, 1
Dimar 6.9, 1
ChrA 6.5, 1
Syriza 30.0, 4
ND 27.4, 4
PASOK 8.6, 1
Dimar 7.9, 1
Anel 7.7, 1

Quote
Piraeus, 14 seats. The A and B constituencies combined. Also the Piraeus and Islands regional units combined (the division is not identical. Piraeus A is the city and the islands except the largest one of Salamis; Piraeus B is the proletarian portside suburbs west of Piraeus plus Salamis. Piraeus regional unit is the mainland parts of both, Islands is... oh I guess you figured it out).
Syriza 22.0, 4
ND 12.6, 2
Anel 12.5, 2
KKE 10.4, 2
ChrA 9.2, 2
PASOK 8.3, 1
Dimar 6.0, 1
Syriza 33.0, 5
ND 23.1, 4
Anel 9.1, 1
ChrA 8.9, 1
PASOK 8.1, 1
Dimar 6.0, 1
KKE 5.5, 1

Quote
North Aegean, 6 seats
ND 19.8, 2
KKE 16.0, 1
PASOK 14.6, 1
Syriza 13.5, 1
Anel 9.8, 1
ND 28.7, 2
Syriza 22.4, 2
PASOK 14.7, 1
KKE 11.0, 1

Quote
South Aegean, 8 seats
ND 18.1, 2
Anel 15.8, 2
PASOK 14.6, 2
Syriza 13.6, 1
Dimar 7.1, 1
ND 31.7, 3
Syriza 24.4, 3
PASOK 14.5, 1
Anel 9.6, 1

Quote
Crete, 16 seats
PASOK 18.5, 4
Syriza 15.8, 3
Anel 11.0, 2
Disy 10.1, 2
ND 10.1, 2 (seven votes behind! :D )
Dimar 7.9, 1
KKE 6.2, 1
Greens 4.3, 1
Syriza 32.1, 6
ND 21.5, 4
PASOK 18.5, 4
Anel 7.7, 1
Dimar 7.2, 1
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« Reply #1168 on: July 01, 2012, 03:03:34 am »
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I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Yeah, let's just ignore the whole probability of Greece finally falling off the cliff, dragging Europe down with it if there was a third election.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GqgOvzUeiAA

Change bolshevik to falling off the cliff.
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« Reply #1169 on: July 19, 2012, 12:16:56 pm »
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU3Gfe0MG0c

No comment really.
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As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'

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