Greece 2012

[jaichind]

Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.

[jaichind]

It seems that if ND+PASOK does not reach majority or gets is a very slim majority as seems likely the two main pro-European Union parties  are now likely to win less than 40 per cent of the vote, their  leaders, Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, may decide to press for a second election to be held within a few weeks,  rather than try to govern with an overall majority of less than 20 seats.

[jaichind]

Looks like PASOK just got pushed to 3rd.

[jaichind]

I guess they can try to form a Europhile ND-PASOK-DIMAR government based on keeping Greece in the EU and minor tweeks in the deal with EU.

[jaichind]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_general_election,_1999

One Israel which is really a alliance dominted by Labor Party only got 20.2% and was the top vote getter

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

[jaichind]

I found one

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_1988

Two top parties both got 19.3%

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

[jaichind]

Yep.  It is pretty sad the ND-PASOK will get less that 33% of the vote but will, in theory, be able to form a government.  The vote got split amoung too many parties which failed to cross 3% AND the 50 seat bonus seems to have done it.  Of course both ND and PASOK seems to be losing vote share as the count continues so I can see them being down to 150.

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

[jaichind]

The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I thought of that as well but I choose not to count it because it was the first of two rounds.  I am pretty sure the results would be dramatically different if the voting population in France were told that there would only be one round.  In cases like this the first round votes would be more scattered.  The Greek system only has one round ergo I choose not to go with this example.

[jaichind]

I guess the only realistic government would be ND-PASOK-DIMAR like I mentioned before.  This government can have a programme of staying in Eurozone and chip away at the deal with the EU bailout but not at the expense of exiting the Euro.  Not sure how realistic this is or how long it would last.  But I can see no other government.  If this does not work out then I guess it would another election.  

[jaichind]

Markets are already reacting.  US stock futures are off 0.9%.  Oil is off 2% and Korean stock exchange is off 1.5%

[jaichind]

This is what I found

--------------------------------------------------------------
Founded in 2002, this environmentalist party has never broken the three per cent barrier necessary to win seats in parliament. That might change this election: polls show the party may narrowly pass the threshold.

Ecologist Greens oppose the memorandum, partly for environmental reasons. Yiannis Paraskevopoulos, the head of the party’s list of state deputies, said that the reforms spelled out in the memorandum favour an "economy of plunder", including plans to drill for oil and mine gold in Greece.

The party supports Greece's membership in the eurozone and the EU. Although Ecologist Greens have said they would not be part of a coalition with New Democracy or PASOK, they may be open to working with SYRIZA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The memorandum above refers to the second financial rescue package.

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

[jaichind]

Wow, it seems ND might break below 19%

[jaichind]

Samaras of ND hands back mandate to Prez saying that he could not form a government.  I guess it would be Syriza's turn.  I doubt they would come up with anything.  It seems another election is coming.  I am surprised at this turn of events.  I figured that Samaras would try for al least a couple of days.  It could be that he feels that any government would not last long and will further destroy the ND.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Antonis Samaras, who received a
mandate to form a government for Greece today, said he failed to
reach agreement with the five party leaders he spoke with and
handed back the mandate to President Karolos Papoulias.
     The mandate to form a government will now pass to the head
of the second-biggest parliamentary party arising from the
elections yesterday, Syriza.

[jaichind]

My gut feeling is that ND is going to beat out SYRIZA.  It should be something like
ND       29
SYRIZA 25
PASOK  10

At this stage the desire to get to a stable governement should be overriding all other concerns. This should be enough for ND-PASOK to get a slim majority. 

[jaichind]

Exit polls show

ND               27.5-30.5
SYRIZA         27   - 30
PASOK          10  -  12
Ind Greeks     6  -   7.5
Golden Dawn  6  -  7.5

[jaichind]

Anyone with link to results

May 5th results were at

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en

but that one does not work anymore

[jaichind]

     June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Greek police said a group of 10
people wearing motorcycle helmets to disguise their identity
attacked two police officers guarding a polling station in the
central Athens neighborhood of Exarhia.
     The group set the ballot box at the station on fire,
according to a phone text message from the police. The two
officers were taken to hospital for their injuries.

[jaichind]

Greek state TV estimates that on those exit numbers New Democracy and Pasok could form a coalition. The 300 seats would be distributed thus:
New Democracy 127 (including the bonus 50 for winning), Syriza 72, Pasok 32, Independent Greeks 21, Golden Dawn 19, Democratic Left 16, Communist Party of Greece 13.

I am a bit sceptical based on how last time around ND and PASOK vote share fell a lot as the couting continued.  But if greek state TV takes into type of trend into account I would be glad to believe this as this is the only real result that could lead to some sort of stability.

[jaichind]

Looks like Greens and LAOS are losing vote share to the larger parties.  Even PASOK is ahead of its vote share in May.  That might change as time goes on but I am surprised.

[jaichind]

Looks like Athens is slower.  That is SYRIZA's last hope.  They are releatively strong there, but so is ND. 

[jaichind]

ND is ahead in Athens A  (w/ almost 25% reporting nationwide).

I think you are talking about A' Athens.  For V' Athens (which I assume is Athens suburbs whereas A' Athens is central city) which has a much larger voting popluation and SYRIZA is ahead.  Both has about 16% of the vote in while the nation as a whole are 27% in.

[jaichind]

ND is ahead in Athens A .

I think you are talking about A' Athens.  

Most definitely. Since that's exactly what I said )

Ooops.  You are right. 

[jaichind]

New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

If they do that then there will be a third election where PASOK will get less than 3% of the vote.  If a vote for PASOK is really a vote for SYRIZA then why not just vote for SYRIZA and skip the middleman.  If one does not like SYRIZA then just vote for ND.

[jaichind]

As votes continue to come in the trend is for SYRIZA to gain at the expense of PASOK whereas ND stays around the same.  It should be the affect of Athens coming in where ND and SYRIZA are strong and PASOK is weak.

[jaichind]

Reading the article below, if there is a third election because PASOK refuses to join ND then it is the fault of the 2 large parities and not itself, at least according to PASOK.


     June 17 (ANA-MPA) -- PASOK should not participate in any
government that did not have the Radical Leftist Coalition
(SYRIZA) within it, top flight PASOK cadre Anna Diamantopoulou
said during a discussion with reporters at PASOK's offices on
Sunday.
     Asked whether the country could withstand a third round of
elections, Diamantopoulou said that responsibility for forming
a government belonged to the two 'big' parties and that SYRIZA
should take on responsibility for leading the country to
elections.
     She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.