Greece 2012

[Bacon King]

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

• As soon as the new Parliament takes office, the President gives the leader of the largest party an exploratory mandate, and this leader has three days to form a Government that can hold the confidence of Parliament.
• If the first party can't form a government in three days, the President gives the leader of the second largest party an exploratory mandate, again with three days.
• If that party can't form a government in time either, then the President gives the third largest party's leader an exploratory mandate and another three three days.

(note: in the event of a tie in seat total, the party with more votes in the last election takes precedence. If there's a tie for third place [or a three-way tie for second place, I suppose] the President has the option of giving a fourth exploratory mandate to the tied party. In no circumstance can he give more than four.)

• If all of the exploratory mandates fail, the President is required to convene and chair a meeting of all Parliamentary party leaders (even inviting, if he desires, the leaders of parties too small to form official Parliamentary groups). At this meeting, one last chance exists for the various party leaders to negotiate and attempt to form a coalition.
• If that fails too, the President must "make every endeavor" to have an all-party unity government formed in order to immediately administer new elections.
• If the President can't even get the parties to cooperate for that, he has to pick one of the Chief Justices of Greece's three Supreme Courts to form a Cabinet to call for new elections. The President then dissolves Parliament.

Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

[Bacon King]

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

• As soon as the new Parliament takes office

How long after the elections themselves is that?

The Greek Constitution states it has to be within thirty days of the election, with the specific date specified in the Presidential decree that called for the election.

My Google Fu must be getting rusty because it actually took me a few minutes to find the date: the 14th Session of the Hellenic Parliament will take office on May 17th.

So that's two weeks of negotiations available for the party that wins the 50 bonus seats.

[Bacon King]

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

Coincidentally, I actually noted the possibility of this happening just a few hours ago in the predictions thread:

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this:

XA: 15%
ND: 14%
PASOK: 13%
SYRIZA: 12%
DIMAR: 11%
ANEL: 11%
KKE: 9%
LAOS: 5%
EcoGreen: 4%
others: 6%

That's a bit of a scary prospect.

With something like that happening, the fifty seat bonus for XA would actually be like half of their seat total. No other party would even think about joining XA in a coalition, though it'd be hard for the other parties to find enough common ground to form a government. You'd probably either see a very loose coalition form that lasts a few months at most, or they'd go through the whole process and end up with new elections- the left would probably make an effort to coalesce around a specific party to take the lead from XA. SYRIZA and DIMAR I'm sure would remerge, at the very least, and as a result get the 50-seat bonus.

[Bacon King]

Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?

Just because they're Nazi doesn't mean they're pro-German. Their rhetoric towards Germany, the IMF, and the austerity measures is comparable to Hitler's rhetoric towards the Western Allies and the Versailles Treaty.

[Bacon King]

btw, px, how are you voting?

[Bacon King]

With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %

[Bacon King]

33.47% reporting now; what's coming in is pushing ND and PASOK down, keeping DISY away from the threshold, and mostly boosting SYRIZA (but also helping Greens and XA a bit).

ND:         112   20,26 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,81 %
PASOK:    43    14,06 %
ANEL:       32   10,32 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,83 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,81 %
DISY:                2,53 %

[Bacon King]

36.90% reporting. Looks like new results are from conservative areas; ND/ANEL big winners at the expense of KKE/SYRIZA/DISY. LAOS getting closer to threshold.

ND:         112   20.36 %
SYRIZA:    48   15.79 %
PASOK:    43    14.08 %
ANEL:       32   10.35 %
KKE:         26    8.34 %
XA:           21    6.83 %
DIMAR:     18    5.98 %
LAOS:               2.89 %
Greens:            2.80 %
DISY:                2.49 %

[Bacon King]

39.39% reporting (8117/20605 precincts)

Leftists and nationalists gain vote share at the expense of PASOK and ND. SYRIZA gains a seat from the Commies.

ND:         112   20.28%
SYRIZA:    49   15.86%
PASOK:    43    13.98%
ANEL:       32   10.39%
KKE:         25    8.31%
XA:           21    6.85%
DIMAR:     18    5.99%
LAOS:               2.90%
Greens:            2.81%
DISY:                2.49%

[Bacon King]

Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?

If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.

It was earlier in this thread, actually. Here's a repost, given the, er, likelihood that these results end up being an unworkable mess for everyone involved:

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

• As soon as the new Parliament takes office, the President gives the leader of the largest party an exploratory mandate, and this leader has three days to form a Government that can hold the confidence of Parliament.
• If the first party can't form a government in three days, the President gives the leader of the second largest party an exploratory mandate, again with three days.
• If that party can't form a government in time either, then the President gives the third largest party's leader an exploratory mandate and another three three days.

(note: in the event of a tie in seat total, the party with more votes in the last election takes precedence. If there's a tie for third place [or a three-way tie for second place, I suppose] the President has the option of giving a fourth exploratory mandate to the tied party. In no circumstance can he give more than four.)

• If all of the exploratory mandates fail, the President is required to convene and chair a meeting of all Parliamentary party leaders (even inviting, if he desires, the leaders of parties too small to form official Parliamentary groups). At this meeting, one last chance exists for the various party leaders to negotiate and attempt to form a coalition.
• If that fails too, the President must "make every endeavor" to have an all-party unity government formed in order to immediately administer new elections.
• If the President can't even get the parties to cooperate for that, he has to pick one of the Chief Justices of Greece's three Supreme Courts to form a Cabinet to call for new elections. The President then dissolves Parliament.

Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

[Bacon King]

42.69% reporting (8796/20605 precincts)
Big loser in this batch is ND; big gains for the commies suggest this is one of those areas where KKE always does well.

ND:         112   20.21%
SYRIZA:    49   15.90%
PASOK:    43    13.95%
ANEL:       32   10.40%
KKE:         25    8.37%
XA:           21    6.85%
DIMAR:     18    5.99%
LAOS:               2.89%
Greens:            2.81%
DISY:                2.50%

[Bacon King]

47.17% reporting (9720/20605 precincts)

PASOK loses a seat to KKE. ND and PASOK vote share is falling; SYRIZA biggest winner in this batch. DISY and Greens both inching towards the quota, while LAOS shows little movement

ND:	112	20.09%
SYRIZA:	49	15.99%
PASOK:	42	13.87%
ANEL:	32	10.42%
KKE:	26	8.37%
XA:	21	6.84%
DIMAR:	18	6.00%
LAOS:		2.88%
Greens:		2.82%
DISY:		2.57%

(I made the results an actual table so it looks nicer )

[Bacon King]

About to post new results once the next batch of precincts come in and there's over 50% reporting, but here's minor party results right now:

DX!: 1.98% (centrists)
Drasi: 1.64% (liberal)
ANTARSYA: 1.16% (revolutionary communist)
parties without one percent: 5.37% (a wide variety, including Pirates, another Green party, a half dozen communist splinter groups, some perennial candidates, independent alliances, and the current parliamentary caucus KOISY)

My favorite minor party names would have to be "Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate) as well as "Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) – Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece" (a union of two splinter groups).

[Bacon King]

52.54% reporting (10825/20605 precincts)

ND loses a seat to DIMAR. PASOK is falling dramatically, ND losing vote share as well. SYRIZA within four points of the lead now.

ND:	111	20.02%
SYRIZA:	49	16.09%
PASOK:	42	13.75%
ANEL:	32	10.45%
KKE:	26	8.36%
XA:	21	6.87%
DIMAR:	19	6.00%
LAOS:		2.87%
Greens:		2.83%
DISY:		2.54%

[Bacon King]

55.96% reporting (11527/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continue to collapse. SYRIZA gains a seat from DIMAR. Greens keep inching towards threshold and may soon overtake LAOS.

ND:	111	19.98%
SYRIZA:	50	16.12%
PASOK:	42	13.69%
ANEL:	32	10.44%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.87%
DIMAR:	18	6.01%
LAOS:		2.87%
Greens:		2.84%
DISY:		2.53%

[Bacon King]

I know this is a bit late to be asking, but what do the parties generally stand for?

Some blatant oversimplifications:

PASOK: center-left, pro-austerity, historically major party
ND: center-right, pro-austerity, historically major party
KKL: communist hard-liners, historically third party (with 7-8% vote ceiling)
SYRIZA: left, anti-austerity
DIMAR: center-left, somewhat ambiguous towards austerity
ANEL: right, anti-austerity
XA: fascist, anti-immigrant and anti-austerity
LAOS: right, anti-immigrant, somewhat ambiguous towards austerity
DISY: centrist to center-right, pro-austerity

[Bacon King]

61.06% reporting (12581/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK keep falling, SYRIZA keeps gaining; Greens almost overtaking LAOS.

ND:	111	19.80%
SYRIZA:	50	16.22%
PASOK:	42	13.65%
ANEL:	32	10.49%
KKE:	26	8.39%
XA:	21	6.89%
DIMAR:	18	6.02%
LAOS:		2.86%
Greens:		2.85%
DISY:		2.55%

[Bacon King]

Parties in first by electoral district, sorted by percent reporting so far
90%-100% reporting: 6 total; 6 ND
80%-90% reporting: 7 total; 5 ND, 1 KKE, 1 SYRIZA
70%-80% reporting: 11 total; 8 ND, 2 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
60%-70% reporting: 16 total; 11 ND, 5 SYRIZA
50%-60% reporting: 12 total; 6 ND, 2 PASOK, 4 SYRIZA
40%-50% reporting:4 total; 1 ND, 3 SYRIZA

Looks like the gap between ND and SYRIZA will continue to narrow.

[Bacon King]

"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)

Joke candidate?

Indeed.

Why is austerity bad, and what is the alternative?

People hate it because it's caused massive cuts in pensions, minimum wage, and universal tax hikes while the economy is in the hole and unemployment is astronomical. No alternative though that doesn't involve leaving the Eurozone, and even then there'd still be horrible economic repercussions. (or, that's my understanding anyway, don't know too much about the details).

[Bacon King]

66.97% reporting (13799/20605 precincts)

More gains for SYRIZA; ND held mostly steady this update. Greens only 110 votes from overtaking LAOS now.

ND:	111	19.79%
SYRIZA:	50	16.27%
PASOK:	42	13.63%
ANEL:	32	10.49%
KKE:	26	8.36%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
LAOS:		2.86%
Greens:		2.86%
DISY:		2.53%

[Bacon King]

70.48% reporting (14522/20605 precincts)

ND:	111	19.77%
SYRIZA:	50	16.28%
PASOK:	42	13.59%
ANEL:	32	10.49%
KKE:	26	8.36%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
LAOS:		2.86%
Greens:		2.86%
DISY:		2.55%

[Bacon King]

Parties in first by electoral district, sorted by percent reporting so far
95%-100% reporting: 10 total; 9 ND, 1 KKE
90%-95% reporting: 2 total; 1 ND, 1 SYRIZA
85%-90% reporting: 5 total; 5 ND
80%-85% reporting: 4 total; 3 ND, 1 SYRIZA
75%-80% reporting: 7 total; 4 ND, 2 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
70%-75% reporting: 8 total; 5 ND, 3 SYRIZA
65%-70% reporting: 6 total; 4 ND, 1 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
60%-65% reporting: 8 total; 4 ND, 3 SYRIZA, 1 PASOK
55%-60% reporting: 2 total; 1 ND, 1 SYRIZA
50%-55% reporting: 3 total; 3 SYRIZA

Also, significantly, the (by far) largest district in the country, with 42 seats, is giving Syriza 22% with only 62% reporting.

[Bacon King]

72.81% reporting (15002/20605 precincts)

Greens have overtaken LAOS! Good shot that they'll make it into Parliament, based on what's out. Also, ND/PASOK fall some more while SYRIZA gains. Only 3.4% gap between top two now.

ND:	111	19.71%
SYRIZA:	50	16.33%
PASOK:	42	13.55%
ANEL:	32	10.47%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
Greens:		2.86%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.56%

[Bacon King]

74.71% reporting (15393/20605 precincts)

ND loses a seat to DIMAR somewhere. Greens inching closer to threshold. Difference between ND and SYRIZA: 3.34%

ND:	110	19.68%
SYRIZA:	50	16.34%
PASOK:	42	13.55%
ANEL:	32	10.47%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.89%
DIMAR:	19	6.04%
Greens:		2.87%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.58%

[Bacon King]

px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat