Greece 2012

[Beet]

Why did PASOK collapse so heavily over the winter? One would have thought that not being solely in charge of government would have taken some pressure off them.

[Beet]

ND is actually doing a lot worse than 2009.

KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

[Beet]

The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18

If that's true, ND + PASOK = 158. Solid majority, no?

[Beet]

Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?

[Beet]

If there are new elections in June, the same candidates will be running, no?

Also, who are the leaders of the parties besides ND and PASOK, and what are their personalities?

[Beet]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

[Beet]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.

[Beet]

There's no point in supporting the anti-austerity far right when there are anti-austerity leftists to support, as in the case in Greece.

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.

[Beet]

If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy. Finally, the ECB must play a role in protecting financial stability. This goes beyond Greece, the fate of 100 million or more across the continent are directly impacted, and the entire world is indirectly impacted.

[Beet]

The fate of Greece lies in the hands of Fotis Kouvelis. It would be better for the euro not to have another election, as it could result in Syriza gaining even more seats.

[Beet]

There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

So you agree with the far-right Austrian types then, that it all must end in doom?

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

That is not good at all. By that kind of thinking, no democratic party should carry the burden of governance now. Even it would be a very risky proposition for Tsipras.

[Beet]

If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy.

Since Greek Euro membership is the main problem now, thats not a good solution.

At the same time,they can't quit the Euro without quitting the EU.

A late reply... but it may be a good solution for preserving the euro. While it would be fine if Greece alone left the euro, unfortunately Greece leaving the euro a this juncture with so many other countries' issues unresolved would set off contagion. That would either force the ECB to intervene massively - if it does not the entire euro will end. Even that even big majorities in Greece - even SYRIZA supports the euro, that would not be an optimal outcome.

To prevent contagion and preserve the euro, Greece could be cut off from aid but stay on the currency. This would force it to undergo austerity yet at the same time it would not require politicians to approve austerity. But nor would it require the government to violate democracy. The Greek government would simply stop operating for a period of time, in certain areas. Such as, civil servants do not get paid, or the mail does not get delivered, and such and such. It would be horrible, but give the Greeks a taste and then more time to think whether they really want to go back to the Drachma or not. At this point, Greek electorate is not thinking clearly. It is a solution that is compatible with German-demands of austerity, current Greek preferences to stay in the euro, and democracy.

[Beet]

Syriza's position:

"Syriza argues that Greece can abandon the bailout and European leaders will not carry out their threats to withhold funding, because they cannot risk the damage to other EU countries that would be caused by a Greek collapse. "They will be begging us to take the money," Syriza's deputy, Dimitris Stratoulis, claimed on Friday."

Really? These are the people whom the Greek voters want to bet the future of their country on?

[Beet]

Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.

Yes but only Germany can choose growth for Europe. The idea that Greece can choose growth within the Euro is the fatal lie of Syriza. Will Germans really be begging Greece to take the money? Name one German who would- it can be anybody.

[Beet]

Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.

Well sure, I agree with that. But with regard to the topic of this thread (Greece 2012) it is Syriza that is lying to the people about its platform- a pure fantasy. If they try to implement it, they may not end up any better than PASOK. And at that point you have the mainstream and the radical left discredited - who is left? Hint: the name has a shiny element in it, and a time of day.

[Beet]

Except Syriza can't end austerity, even if they're right about the euro thing (which is uncertain).

The problem with austerity is this... after 4 years of recession, why haven't prices come down? Why hasn't the current account deficit been eliminated? Greece is getting all the pain of austerity but none of the benefit. That is the real riddle here. But it's more an economics question, off topic.

[Beet]

"Some sign?" The entire political establishment has destroyed itself for the sake of "solving their budget problems."

In 2010-11, the Greek government adopted measures to cut spending by 8.7 percent of GDP. In the US, that would be the equivalent of cutting $1.3 trillion off the budget in a single year. In contrast, the US "sequestration" plan only envisions cuts of $1.2 trillion over ten years. So Greece has already done ten times more than, say, the US. Greece's deficit is far lower than numerous other developed countries, including the US and Japan. Yes, I would say they have put "some sign" that they are interested in solving their budget issues. The problem is, the budget is composed of a revenues side as well as a spending side. They are being squeezed to death.

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Yes I don't agree with the Radical Left in this case-- they're saying what people want to hear when they probably know it's not true. Or they've convinced themselves something they want to believe with no basis in reality.

[Beet]

Actually not all options are bad. There is a good solution. It is simply for Germany to switch to stimulus, a larger central bank role and perhaps some degree of fiscal union, while Greece enacts those reforms which are necessary to stimulate exports and open the labor market. In the short term, Germany will commit to fiscal transfers to Greece which seem endless, but over time the implementation of labor market reforms will mean German prices and wages will rise relative to Greek ones, and Greece will regain competitiveness. As this happens, Greece will become a net exporter to Germany and earn enough euro credits to repay Germany.

[Beet]

The way things are looking for Greece it's better to exit if they don't want to deal with 10 more years of austerity, one swift default and a few months of unrest and they can go back to being a functioning tourist trap.

One leap off this cliff and it's all over...

Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

The central bank part can be done in 10 minutes.

[Beet]

Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

The central bank part can be done in 10 minutes.

You fail to understand European Law 101. The EU is not the US federal government, and does not have surpreme legislative power over its member states. According to Article 5 of the Treaty on the European Union it can only create legislation within areas where it has been granted power by the national governments in a treaty. That's for example why the Union can't raise its own taxes. 


So no it couldn't be done in 10 minutes, because the current EU treaty does not allow the Union the power to create a central bank. You would need  to pass a  new treaty for it to be possible. And as pointed out by ag, it takes a few years at best, a decade if it's such controversial ideas as a European central bank.

Who said anything about creating a central bank? I'm talking about the ECB, which was already created. You would not need a treaty. In fact, the ability to supercede treaties and politicians within the institutional structure is the prime reason why ECB action is the only feasible solution to this.

We are not asking the ECB do anything qualitatively different than what it has already done, only quantitatively.

Third, you cannot have a currency union without a common central bank and a common monetary policy. These things ought to have been implied within the meaning of joining into a single currency.

[Beet]

There's a question as to how you measure whether a more economically prosperous entity benefits or not from being in a currency, fiscal, or political union with less prosperous entities. I mean, if you add up the total transfers to and from the US state of New York in it's history, surely transfers out of New York dwarf transfers into New York. So then does it mean New York has not benefitted from being a member of the United States? It's benefitted tremendously because it made Wall Street the nexus of the world's largest economy, and Ellis Island the gateway to a continent. Similarly, there are intangible benefits to Germany of being in the eurozone. Besides helping the competitiveness of German manufactures and the like. It makes Frankfurt the nexus of a potential economic superpower. It puts German institutions at the forefront of a continent of people much larger than Germany. Over time, this could draw power, influence, and capital into Germany itself, more than would occur if Germany was on its own. We're already seeing it. Arguably, Angela Merkel is the most powerful Chancellor in German history.

[Beet]

Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)

Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.

^^^^^

Really, voting out of 'spite' is about the worst thing that Greeks can do at this point.

[Beet]

If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

Well we would need to discuss some details, like where the whips would be made? Shall we have Greece make them for themselves, or should Northern Europe be allowed to sell them to get back a little money? Perhaps a neutral place like Switzerland would be best.

Let's take it a little further. Northern Europe would not only be allowed to sell some meagre whips to get back a little money. Northern Europe has been treated so unjustly by Greece this entire catastrophe, that I think Northern Europe should be allowed to sell Greece 50 nuclear power plants, 5 million automobiles, 100 million free vacations, 1 million villas, 1 million swimming pools, 5 million smartphones, 5 million laptop computers, 50 skyscrapers, 20,000 schools, 20 subway systems, 5 million Louis Vuitton handbags, 100 fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, 20 Airbus A330s, 50 million coupons for manicures in Germany, 20 million pairs of shoes, and the isle of Rugen in the Baltic. Northern Europe will be permitted to earn 1 trillion euros in exchange.

The sum can simply be added to the Greek national debt.

Also, pass a law forbidding Greeks from engaging in productive labor, on penalty of death. When Greeks need water to drink, they must buy it from the Germans. When they need bread to eat, they must buy it from the Germans. They will add the costs of these to their national debt also, naturally.

That would solve your problems immediately, Franzl. All the money owed to Germany would make your country fantastically wealthy, and the happiness of your people will multiply like the loaves of bread Jesus handed out in the New Testament.

[Beet]

Is it morning in Greece already?