Greece 2012

[Хahar 🤔]

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:



And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

There are historical reasons why they won't.

It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.

[Хahar 🤔]

Proportional representation with a majority bonus combines the worst features of PR (unelected legislators) with the worst features of FPTP (legislature unrepresentative of popular vote).

[Хahar 🤔]

Open-list PR isn't nearly the same as single-member districts when it comes to members having a personal mandate. I've never heard of a person losing his seat because of open-list PR; indeed, the only example that I can think of offhand where it made a difference was in southern Italy in the good old days, when DC voters would also check the name of the local boss.

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Unfortunately, this fake PR means that ND is guaranteed to win the next election.

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On the other hand, now that PASOK isn't solely in charge of government, I can't think of any reason for anyone to cast a vote for them.

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It's worth noting that not quite all of the independents are really independents, since new parliamentary groups cannot be created until after the next election.

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Interesting to note that two of the expelled were Nazis who supported the bill (one of them being the old transport minister).

[Хahar 🤔]

The left parties would have to beat ND by 15.4% to win more seats than ND. That's looking like it might actually be possible.

[Хahar 🤔]

Results based on recent polling:



Thanks to the 19 Nazi seats, no possible grouping has a majority.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is it even going to be possible for anyone to form a government with the current numbers?

A PASOK-ND coalition may be possible, although it won't exactly have a comfortable majority. If the two parties don't have a majority, they may get it if they let the Nazis in. It seems like they might be underpolling (one would certainly expect LAOS to be doing better, although participating in the government wasn't good for them from an electoral standpoint); does anyone know whether the Greek far-right generally underpolls?

[Хahar 🤔]

What's the date of the election, again?

Also, does Greece plan to do anything about this ridiculous "give the winner 50 free seats" bulls**t at some point?  When the "winning" party may well get <25% of the vote?

It appears that the right rigs the system every time they take power.

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Well KKE has refused to meet with SYRIZA as well. Tsipras has laid out a schedule of meetings that take him through Thursday so I guess we'll have to wait until then for him to officially give up. He's also meeting with the Greens and another minor leftist party that missed the threshold (perhaps to boost their profile for the next election?) and with "business and trade union leaders" (just for kicks I guess? to make him seem more Prime Ministerial?)

Is it possible hes trying to get them to run on a Joint list with syriza for june? iIm not sure if joint lists are allowed or not]

SYRIZA is itself a joint list of a number of left-wing parties, so that would make sense.

[Хahar 🤔]

Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Who? It's not as though the Panhellenic Socialist Movement actually stands for anything.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm sure ANEL support is also going to SYRIZA, given their closeness to the bonus.