Greece 2012

[Antonio the Sixth]

If there is one single depressing election in the world's history, it will probably be this one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:



And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:

What a shame it will never happen...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters?

It's still 1000 times fairer than constituency voting, where a party can get less votes than another and still win more seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%

There's still a huge moral problem : the winning coalition wins the same number of seats no matter its results. Which also means that, the lower the results of the winning coalition are, the more other parties will be underrepresented. It might not have been a huge problem for general elections until now, but look at the current municipal council, where the De Magistris coalition holds 64% of the seats despite winning only 17% of the vote !!! That's pretty insane.

Also note that a 10% numerical majority bonus would have given the winning coalitions the same number (or slightly more) seats in 2006 and 2008.

I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.

Yes, this is a very good thing. One of the main problem with election thresholds is the spoiler effect of little parties, and the Italian system has solved this problem. The majority bonus system is still pretty awful though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Proportional representation with a majority bonus combines the worst features of PR (unelected legislators) with the worst features of FPTP (legislature unrepresentative of popular vote).

Gosh, how many times will I have to repeat that ?

PREFERENTIAL VOTING

And besides that, PR with a small majority bonus is still way more representative of popular vote than any form of constituency-based system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And besides that, PR with a small majority bonus is still way more representative of popular vote than any form of constituency-based system.

But a system based on single member constituencies is not supposed to be representative of the overall popular vote.

Yes, I've heard people who consider it's more important to represent "the country's diversity" and to have MPs closely tied to a small community. Besides the fact FPP rarely actually achieve that (because that requires 1-a very large number of seats 2-that MPs are actually freeminded and not party hacks ; I don't know any country where those two criteria are met, and most don't meet either of them), I personally don't think it's important at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, I've heard people who consider it's more important to represent "the country's diversity" and to have MPs closely tied to a small community. Besides the fact FPP rarely actually achieve that (because that requires 1-a very large number of seats 2-that MPs are actually freeminded and not party hacks ; I don't know any country where those two criteria are met, and most don't meet either of them), I personally don't think it's important at all.

The actual problem is that constituencies are rarely drawn with that kind of thing in mind. And that, even when they are, not every constituency is a stronghold for party x, party y, or whoever. And that, even in strongholds, there are always people who hate the dominant party. And so on.

You're right, this is certainly the biggest issue. Further reason why, even in the only logic that would make FPP legitimate, it's still ineffective.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You're right, this is certainly the biggest issue. Further reason why, even in the only logic that would make FPP legitimate, it's still ineffective.

Well, no electoral system is exactly effective, at least not all the time, at least not always in practice. But rigged PR systems are just silly.

Why so ? I hear this so often but I've never heard a convincing argument of what's so wrong with majority-bonus PR.

Consider this system : national PR, 10% majority bonus, 4% electoral threshold. That means that the assembly's composition will be, in the worst case, similar to the PV at around 80%. That also means the winning party needs around 40% of the popular vote to win a majority. The system is reasonably fair, and makes electoral majorities far easier (coalitions might still be the rule, but we'd avoid deadlocked parliaments). If you want popularly elected MPs, just make the attribution of seats to people (not the repartition to parties) based on multi-members constituencies and use preferential voting. Problem solved.

How can this system be considered worse than any kind of consituency-based system ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why so ? I hear this so often but I've never heard a convincing argument of what's so wrong with majority-bonus PR

Because it is an attempt to have your cake and eat it. If you accept the principle of proportionality, then you also have to accept (as a direct consequence) that traditional majoritarianism is less than entirely ideal. It's the sort of 'solution' to the 'problems' caused by proportional systems that could only ever be beloved by the political elite (however defined).

I really don't get it. What's wrong with having the cake and eating it, if we actually can ? Majority bonus PR is infinitely more representative than any constituency-based system, and avoids most of its shortcomings. I don't know why we should see things in black or white (either a perfectly fair system which causes instability, or an utterly unfair system which ensures strong majorities) instead of looking for pragmatic solutions which take into account both issues ?

Of course, it's not my favorite system. I support full PR in countries that have prove able to have a stable political system with it (namely, the scandinavians or Germany). But sometimes full PR is a disaster (say, 4th Republic France, Weimar Germany, etc...) and in such case I prefer to correct it with majority bonuses rather than swtching to a really unfair system like FPP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now, you're really pissing me off.

Gosh, how many times will I have to repeat that ?

PREFERENTIAL VOTING

[Antonio the Sixth]

Have the elections already been scheduled ? And in this case, when will they be held ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

My only hope at this point is that ND does significantly worse than in 2009. Won't change the disgusting nature of these elections, but will alleviate the bitterness of PASOK's rout.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My only hope at this point is that ND does significantly worse than in 2009. Won't change the disgusting nature of these elections, but will alleviate the bitterness of PASOK's rout.

PASOK's rout will be sweet, not bitter. They don't deserve anything better.

Of course Papandreou acted stupidly at the end of his term. But I doubt any of Europe's current politicians would have done any better than him in a similar situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

The fact that the KKE still lives in the 1950s and thinks every other party (left and right altogether) is an evil bourgeois enemy of the proletariate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

one of the biggest benefits of PR, in my opinion, is how it allows voters that opportunity without a second thought.

Very true.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will they find a way to postpone the elections again, in the name of "stability" ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Have the elections officially been scheduled yet ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Have the elections officially been scheduled yet ?

*coughcough*

[Antonio the Sixth]

They'll be held when Angela Merkel sees a chance of victory for her goons. Not before.

They haven't been officially called yet.

The coalition would gain a majority if the elections are held now. Maybe this will not be the case in 6 months.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results based on recent polling:



Thanks to the 19 Nazi seats, no possible grouping has a majority.

What kind of party is AN.EL. ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry, I skipped this post. Well, that sucks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry, I skipped this post. Well, that sucks.

Not really, seeing as they are drawing votes from ND.

As much as I despise ND, I tend to think the populist right is always a bad thing. And especially in Greece's context.

[Antonio the Sixth]

6th of May.

Wow, just like France ? That's gonna be a big night...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the Dimar collapse ?