Greece 2012

[Dereich]

When will we start getting actual numbers?

[Dereich]

So with all the recent sprees of defections what would be a safe majority for an ND/PASOK coalition?

[Dereich]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

I may be reading this wrong but I think only 26% of the vote is in. Hopefully it'll get closer. I may be on the right and in favor of the European consensus but I want the smile wiped off of Samaras's face.

[Dereich]

And ND loses another to ANEL. ND/PASOK no longer works.

[Dereich]

And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.

Yeah, but now it wouldn't even work in theory.

[Dereich]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

[Dereich]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

Winning friends ? Why would the victim ask its torturer to become friends ?

They meant winning friends among the European masses, not the European governments.

[Dereich]

Someone help me find a way to respond to Swedish Cheese with a post that isn't just a string of expletives on how he's completely missing the point.

How is he missing the point? He seems to have gotten the main concerns down pretty well.

[Dereich]

So what would be the process by which Greece was kicked out of the Eurozone? Which European bodies would make the decision? Would it even be legal to do so? At this point I kinda want to see SYRIZA win just to see the frantic activity that would result.

[Dereich]

Why does PASOK even exist now, let alone still obtain a respectable share? Surely those who want EU-backed austerity can just vote ND, and the old days of party patronage must be over for good.

If KKE can get 6% even when a viable leftist party exists, then PASOK can certainly survive.

[Dereich]

As a Greek I'll tell you some facts about the aftermath.The beating and cursing continued while there was a commercial break.The man was chased in the studio by cameramen and the floor manager and they managed to lock him in a room where he hid until the police came.He then busted the door open and run away from the studio in the nearby fields

I wish they had left the cameras running! this would have been comical to watch

problem is half of cops voted XD last turnaround.  I saw something two days ago that says XD is planning to forcibly evict illegal immigrants from hospitals.

Ok, can we call XD Golden Dawn? I had to reread your post 2 or 3 times before I realized you weren't super excited that cops voted. Having a party abbreviation that's the same as an emote is super annoying.

[Dereich]

What has ANEL said about coalitions? I'm trying to work out what SYRIZA's options will be if it wins.

[Dereich]

Any predictions as to who wins at this point?

[Dereich]

PASOK actually leading somewhere! Eastern Crete.

PASOK could announce its new policy was eating babies and it would still win Crete.

[Dereich]

All the american news organizations seem pretty sure that ND will win. Or at least that's what it seems like on twitter.

[Dereich]

New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

Good old PASOK, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Dereich]

How is joining a rightwing government not suicide for PASOK?

Why is what PASOK has done up to now not electoral suicide? If they can survive 2 elections with a viable leftist alternative it can survive an ND-PASOK government.

[Dereich]

Reading the article below, if there is a third election because PASOK refuses to join ND then it is the fault of the 2 large parities and not itself, at least according to PASOK.


     June 17 (ANA-MPA) -- PASOK should not participate in any
government that did not have the Radical Leftist Coalition
(SYRIZA) within it, top flight PASOK cadre Anna Diamantopoulou
said during a discussion with reporters at PASOK's offices on
Sunday.
     Asked whether the country could withstand a third round of
elections, Diamantopoulou said that responsibility for forming
a government belonged to the two 'big' parties and that SYRIZA
should take on responsibility for leading the country to
elections.
     She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.

Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009

[Dereich]

Ok has something new changed with the whole PASOK situation? Last I heard they were totally unwilling to enter a coalition without SYRIZA, but all the news channels and the financial markets act like its a done deal.

[Dereich]

  That is the way things ought to be, when you do something stupid, the market will punish you and then you better be with the picture. 

The markets punish you even if you are an obedient pupil. See Spain.

ND-PASOK-Dimar seems to be the less worse in the present circumstances.

A KKE-XA coalition would probably be less worse then the current circumstances, at least we would have certainty and know to stay far away from Greece for a few years. And you're half right about Spain. The Spanish government is working with Europe, but the Spanish regions are unobidient children dragging the whole country into uncertainty and debt. If the Spanish government didn't have them to deal with I have no doubt Spain wouldn't be the main country on the market's radar.

[Dereich]

Are you talking seriously, Dereich? Do you want Greece expelled and with this odd XA-KKE coalition in office? There is too much to say about Spanish regions (or "autonomies") but your statement is essentially false. They are a part of the problem, of course, but they have only a little share. The big mess is in the banks and in the private debt, all consecuencies of the real estate bubble.

Of course not. But the markets seem to have a strange fixation on "uncertainty". I'd go so far as to say that uncertainty is the main driver of the current crisis. Not so that, that is, that there is a need to force markets to not worry or something. European governments can and should deal with the structual issues the plague growth. But after seeing how markets have reacted as of late I'd guess that the only thing that could make them certain of anything would be a distaterous result, like a KKE-XA coalition. And you have to admit that a KKE-XA coalition would be the most interesting political spectacle in Europe since Berlisconi left.

As for Spain, I should have been more clear. The regions are a problem in the deficit battles, not in the financial troubles. I sort of look at it as two different but interconnected malaises: one having to do with the financial system, the other a confidence problem.  I've probably also been overestimating the impact of the regions on the deficit/uncertainty thing because I've been hearing a lot about it lately from a Catalan friend of mine.

[Dereich]

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It would be interesting if you see the bullfight behind the barrier, as we say in Spain. Berlusconi and these Greek Nazis aren't funny actually.

Its possible to laugh at things going on across the Atlantic that I'm sure are horrifying to someone closer. Just look at that incident with the XA member attacking that KKE woman on televison. I'm sure to a Greek that was terrible and a national shame; that didn't make it unfunny here.  Similary, I'm sure most Americans wouldn't think the concept of a Donald Trump presidency would be very funny, but Europeans would probably think its hilarious. Berlisconi,  Greece, and other European farces could directly affect you and your country's livelyhoods, its not unresonable that you view them as more serious issues then I do.

Oh and as for Spain; now I know. Thanks for the corrections.

[Dereich]

What's with DIMAR joining? Didn't they reject this exact coalition less then a month ago?

[Dereich]

I believe that should there be a third election, Dimar voters would "vote utile" for Syriza, at least a number of them, in order to get Syriza the majority premium of 50 seats. So Dimar has their last shot at being in charge with a nice parliamentary group...

Not only that- if Dimar didn't enter government, they'd probably lose a lot of their moderate voters to PASOK. 

I would have guessed that DIMAR ran on a "we're more moderate then the SYRIZA crazies but AREN'T the ones who screwed up the country in the first place like PASOK" kind of platform.