Greece 2012

[batmacumba]

Oh, I had worked on Greek polls, but didn't noticed this thread. I'll try to put them into graphics. If somebody have time, PM me and I'll send the excel file.

[batmacumba]

So, how do I post pictures?

[batmacumba]

Then It goes.

Average Polling since September.



Probable Coalitions:



ND is going slightly downwards, but They're almost stable if compared to PASOK. The rest of the left surged as a whole, but lost ground on January, except for DIMAR, witch keeps a rocket ascention. The tentative center-right DISY wasn't able to take off and the Greens are endangered to crash in the ground. The horrible XA (what does it mean, Xenophobic Alliance?) appeared on the last couple of months on more than one poll. Before December, only VPRC included them.

[batmacumba]

Actually, January polls detected a bigger proportion of "other / undecided" than previous months, reaching september levels again.

[batmacumba]

These are the same food, with different flavor. Last poll added.






As you can see, gentleman, the whole left voting intention varied, but didn't change at all. PASOK's voters are being sucked by DIMAR and, to a lesser extent, SYRIZA. The right seem to be on a  shrink trend, but the bleed is focused on LAOS.

[batmacumba]

Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?

[batmacumba]

ANEL and SYRIZA are anti-bailout, while DIMAR splited from SYRIZA to be on a pondered position. So, jaichind is probably right. Nevertheless, It would be an unstable coalition just like the last Italian leftist one. What do you think, px?

[batmacumba]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

Oh, didn't saw yours.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.

[batmacumba]

91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:	109	19.22%
SYRIZA:	51	16.57%
PASOK:	41	13.41%
ANEL:	33	10.54%
KKE:	26	8.40%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.

[batmacumba]

The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

The thought that any share of anyone's compatriots voted neonazis inside a parliament is not only depressive, but is another argument against mankind.

[batmacumba]

The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

[batmacumba]

The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...

And which other boosted utterly-retarded votes in Greece?

[batmacumba]

@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.

Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Mist, I really don't know what's not clear. You were the only to have misunderstood. My sentence does not contain the word 'Greek' at all. And if It was like you thought, it would be about turn out, which is obviously not the case.

Tweed, to use a metaphore which is dare to you marxists, it does matter the cat's colour. Not only this, but the puss may chase birds along with rats. And this may be worse than the rats.

EDIT. Opposite to other forumers, I do not bash the results at all. I find them very healthy, actually, despite the utterly-retarded branch.

[batmacumba]

Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

6 out of 10 Greeks do not pay income tax
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-12-31/world/greece.taxes_1_income-taxes-greek-press-tax-evasion?_s=PM:WORLD

27,5% of the economy are in the so-called shadolw economy
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki


In tax fines Greece has an embezzle rate of 40% (with further 40% simply being written off)
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316094

This was not a few bad apples, this is a general problem, and unless they take responsibility for the action of a major part of their population, the problem won't go away, no matter how much other pay for their irresponsibility. Greece aren't the first country which has problems with using more money than they got in, my own country had the same problem in the 80ties, and the result was that our tax rate was raised from 40% to 50%, we put high taxes on foreign products we didn't produce ourself (which is why a car in Denmark cost 300% of a car in most other countries) plus on gasolin to improve the BOP. The results was ugly, but as result Denmark are one of Europe richest countries today, a netto-exporter with a strong valuta. If we choosed to do nothing, the Danish valuta would have been a complete joke today and our living standards lower.

My biggest problem with Greece is that I don't hear a alternative to austerity, what the Greeks suggest are to keep things as they are. That's unacceptable and people can whine just as much about  all us evil foreigners seeing the Greeks as lazy, corrupt and dishonest, it doesn't change the fact that Greece need to change, and if they doesn't other countries will find continued financial support to Greece completely unacceptable.

Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

[batmacumba]

Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transferred from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddenly couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

If that was the problem, It would struck only on them, not on the whole UE periphery. I must agree It made things worse, but It seems ingenuity to believe the central UE members and institutions weren't just seen It and were caught by surprise. In the other side of the ocean, a nobody whose main work is with built cultural heritage was aware they did tricks, I suppose, even the exact tricks weren't publicly known, the responsible staff at Brussels, Berlin or whateverwhere should had tracked and be prepared for It, if they were really responsible.
The money directly transferred wasn't the main issue here, but how things were done. I'm not aware of Danemark's specific case, but the rule was to export to the peripheral countries and be very glad they were avid consumers, relying the core of their economy on monetarist policies, father than building up more relyable economic bases.
Than, the structural problem of European consensus came down, hit one by one and was specially mean on economies floating in the air, as monetarist recipes prescribe. Than everyone comes (including those who were very fine with the previous situation, thanks) and points their fingers: "the problem was that you were a mean kid! It's all your fault!".
To me, this is obvious scapegoating.

[batmacumba]

Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transferred from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddenly couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

If that was the problem, It would struck only on them, not on the whole UE periphery. I must agree It made things worse, but It seems ingenuity to believe the central UE members and institutions weren't just seen It and were caught by surprise. In the other side of the ocean, a nobody whose main work is with built cultural heritage was aware they did tricks, I suppose, even the exact tricks weren't publicly known, the responsible staff at Brussels, Berlin or whateverwhere should had tracked and be prepared for It, if they were really responsible.
The money directly transferred wasn't the main issue here, but how things were done. I'm not aware of Danemark's specific case, but the rule was to export to the peripheral countries and be very glad they were avid consumers, relying the core of their economy on monetarist policies, father than building up more relyable economic bases.
Than, the structural problem of European consensus came down, hit one by one and was specially mean on economies floating in the air, as monetarist recipes prescribe. Than everyone comes (including those who were very fine with the previous situation, thanks) and points their fingers: "the problem was that you were a mean kid! It's all your fault!".
To me, this is obvious scapegoating.

I don't follow the logic. What precisely do you want people to do, keep sending money to Greece? We can talk as much as we want about scapegoating and it being everybody else but the Greeks fault that they evaded tax, stole and in general behaved deeply irresponsable, it doesn't change the fact that there are two possible scenarios. Greece keep on going as they have done in decades or they change. The other Euro countries with Germany in charge has told them that the former is unacceptable. That's not scapegoating that's a intervention.

Ingemann, the logic is that, apart from creative financial management, they did what they were expected to do. Everybody is closing the eyes to this and keeps only remembering their ways as smart-asses. Their tricks May be associated with, but were clearly not the central cause, and using that as the main rhetorical point for intervention is mean. It would have happend anyway, with or without evasion. And if the main issues don't come to the center of the debate, you folks will be faded to not getting out of this mess.

[batmacumba]

Ingemann, the logic is that, apart from creative financial management, they did what they were expected to do. Everybody is closing the eyes to this and keeps only remembering their ways as smart-asses. Their tricks May be associated with, but were clearly not the central cause, and using that as the main rhetorical point for intervention is mean. It would have happend anyway, with or without evasion. And if the main issues don't come to the center of the debate, you folks will be faded to not getting out of this mess.

I fail to see how its anybody but the Greeks fault that they cheated, yes most expected some fraud in Greece, but no one had a idea of the scale, and the major problem was as long as it wasn't or couldn't be proved, no one was going to make accusations. When we now have the knowledge of the scale and but also hard proffs, no one is going to send more money, before they are sure that they aren't wasted.

Well, now It's me the one not following the logic: I kept defending through three posts that the issue are not the cheatings, that they are marginal, that the whole problem happens independently of their existence, and You kept ignoring my points and getting back to that. Also, as far as I'm aware, the demands put by the UE doesn't seem to focus on frauds but on cutting wellfare, independently of spreadsheet veracity.

If the whole issue was that poor financial management and frauds had led to the crisis, than there wouldn't be any arguing about. And also, It wouldn't reach the structural level It is now, neither would had started at other countrues. The problem here, again, is that's not the matter. The crisis exists without the evasion. And I dare say that the evasions helped the problem to be more bearable to the Greek population, but, again, this is not the issue at all. Please.

[batmacumba]

The original German word is Lumpenproletariat.