Greece 2012

[politicus]

What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?

It isn't as though Greece is a sovereign country, so it hardly matters.

BrusselsBerlin-appointed caretaker government? 

Greece still is a sovereign nation after all and they could declare bankruptcy and leave the Euro. It would be a very tough proces to go through, but they would safe their national honour. The present situation is just too humiliating.

[politicus]

Are the Greens anti-austerity?

[politicus]

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

[politicus]

PASOK might eventually have to join an anti-austerity coalition led by SYRIZA in order not to be annihilated. But thats after 2-3 defeats.

[politicus]

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.

That's because its completely unrealistic. The Euro was and is first and foremost a political project and the German-French axis is still the core of the EU. No common European currency without France.

As a Scandinavian I can regret that because your idea would be appealing to Denmark and Sweden. You cant sell the Euro to Scandinavian voters, but a new D-Mark would be another matter.

Regarding Greece the chances of avoiding a second election looks slim (below 5%). Any thoughts about who would win a rematch?

[politicus]

Who do you think will gain from a new election? Establishment or new parties?

[politicus]

20% for parties below threshold - and it didn't even fulfill the supposed goal of "keeping Nazis out."  Can we please abolish such things?

The parties between 1-3% where 3 centre-right parties, 1 green party, 1 xenophobic right wing populist party and 1 trotskyist party. So 4 "good" and 2 "bad" ones.

[politicus]

What will Pasok do, when its their turn (as third largest party) to try to form a government? Just say outright its impossible, or what do you think?

[politicus]

If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy.

Since Greek Euro membership is the main problem now, thats not a good solution.

[politicus]

Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous. But if they dont, who gets the bonus? The second party could be ND again, would they get it then?

[politicus]

That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)

In theory (and I know its only in theory) there would also be pure left of center option: SYRIZA + DIMAR + KKE = 161. The Communists would be in a dilemma, since there would actually be a majority for creating a Socialist society (of some sorts). If they kept up their "no responsibility for us" act they would have some explaining to do to their voters.

[politicus]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.

[politicus]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

[politicus]

Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.

This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.

[politicus]

Why isn't TheNationalist/TheNazi banned yet?

Because Greece is a democracy?

[politicus]

Where is a lot of sympathy for the Greeks from left wingers in Scandinavian countries, I would guess that the left in other European countries is also quite sympathetic to the torments of the ordinary Greeks. But maybe its just because we are generaly euro sceptics.

Even a lot of rigt wingers on the anti-EU side here in Denmark are fairly sympathetic towards the Greeks (guess you could call them ANEL symphatizers).

[politicus]

This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common European currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a European government responsible to a European parliament that has direct taxation authority over the European population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.

But a large number of European states, especially in the east and north, doesn't want that, so you would need to split the present EU before you could get that far, which is a cumbersome process. Furthermore you would have to create a new structure for cooperation between the European Federation and the rest of the old EU (including several states from the Euro zone). I just cant see how this can be accomplished. Especially in the middle of an economic crisis.

[politicus]

What is dimiourga xana ?

Nazis

Goddamnit, another nazi party ? *__*

I am sorry. I didn't mean Nazis in the literal sense. Just that they are a horrible party

[politicus]

So what would be the process by which Greece was kicked out of the Eurozone? Which European bodies would make the decision? Would it even be legal to do so? At this point I kinda want to see SYRIZA win just to see the frantic activity that would result.

It could be done although I think they would need to amend the treaties first as my understanding is other than Denmark and the UK (who sought opt-outs in the Maastrict Treaty), every other country and any future member must join the Euro and cannot leave or be kicked out.  Most of the rules governing the Euro were made in the 90s when many dreamed of the idea of a European superstate without actually having a clue as to how it would work.

Thats correct, and Sweden stays out by not complying to one of the requirements for joining the Euro.
But if Greece where to leave, I am sure the EU would find a solution. Greece getting a similar exception as the UK and Denmark will in itself be one of the smaller problems in this crisis.

[politicus]

Election result:
 
ND 129
 
Syriza 71
 
Pasok 33
 
ANEL 20
 
XA 18
 
DIMAR 17
 
KKE 12
 

ND + Pasok = 162

Anti-austerity: 138

How long would an ND/Pasok coalition last with such a relatively narrow majority? Anyone wants to bet 10.000 Euros there is going to be a new election within 6 months?

Why is Pasok even interested in taking part in such a government
 

[politicus]

Why is Pasok even interested in taking part in such a government

They have to. I might have supported Syriza, but ND has won fair and square and Greece's interest is to have a stable government. If Dimar could be brought into it (I'm sure they don't want to, but still) it would be even better.

You a being a bit too deterministic. A party never has to take part in a government, they can choose not to for a number of reasons - including self interest.

[politicus]

I don't understand DIMAR too, they're giving legitimacy to this government.

And this is a bad thing... why exactly?

I don't get why the far-left is seemingly crossing fingers for this government to be a disaster, so that Greece falls off the cliff and hence sends the whole world down the drain. Don't you guys know when to stop petty politics and actually think about other factors that partisanship and ideology?

Its not about good vs. bad. Its just strange to see the party act this way. It will kill them in the long term.
We have an analytical focus on this, not a normative/emotional like you seem to have on this matter.