There is now a fifth poll from Pulse showing ND ahead.
All these polls seem to be within the margin of error given that the sample sizes seem to be 1000-1200 (correct me if I'm wrong), which makes roughly for a +/- 3% margin of error, so in essence you have a near statistical tie based on existing polling. It seems to me the markets today are OVERreacting positively anticipating an optimistic scenario of a pro-bailout coalition being favored by the Greek public based on these polls.
More importantly, I understand these polls exclude undecideds as well as those who refuse to answer. How do those undecideds tend to vote in Greece? In the U.S., undecideds tend to vote for the challenger the majority of the time.
Do we know anything about polling methodologies? Are these all landline based polls, if so, that would seem to generally favor older voters who are likely to break conservative (as it does in the U.S.)?
The issue I see is that the polls were off the mark prior to the May 6th election, and the question is why. Could Syriza be underpolling again? If there is a proposed debate just prior to the election my guess is that may be a decisive factor and all these early polls are interesting but not reflective of how things will turn out.
