Predict the result of the 2012 election
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:13:01 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Predict the result of the 2012 election
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Predict the result of the 2012 election  (Read 3387 times)
CLARENCE 2015!
clarence
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,927
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 18, 2011, 11:58:39 AM »

I predict that Obama/Biden will defeat Romney/Jindal by a close margin- maybe 290 to 240 electoral votes and 49% to 48% about with a slightly high vote for 3rd party
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2011, 12:01:11 PM »

This, plus the Republicans pick up the Senate. Though IMO the presidential could really come down to the campaign as in '00 and '04.
Logged
hfred
Rookie
**
Posts: 39


Political Matrix
E: 5.81, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2011, 12:07:43 PM »

Romney-DeMint defeat Obama-Biden 283-255.


Republicans take the Senate and Democrats make small gains in the house.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2011, 12:11:52 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2011, 12:15:42 PM by Politico »

It's going to be a bad night for Obama. Not sure how the too close to call states will go, but I suspect the map will look something like this when Obama concedes (i.e., immediately after the polls close on the west coast, but just presume Hawaii and Alaska go their traditional route):



Obama: 47
Romney: 367
Too Close to Call: 124

A lot of people on here are too young to know what a landslide looks like, but this is what it looks like. And it does happen and it will likely happen to Obama if things do not improve dramatically over the next ten months.
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,042
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2011, 12:27:07 PM »

It's going to be a bad night for Obama. Not sure how the too close to call states will go, but I suspect the map will look something like this when Obama concedes (i.e., immediately after the polls close on the west coast, but just presume Hawaii and Alaska go their traditional route):



Obama: 47
Romney: 367
Too Close to Call: 124

A lot of people on here are too young to know what a landslide looks like, but this is what it looks like. And it does happen and it will likely happen to Obama if things do not improve dramatically over the next ten months.

New York?  Did Biden kill one of the Yankees?
Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2011, 12:28:45 PM »

I think it's going to a very close Republican victory in the Oval Office with a Republican take-over of the Senate and holding steady in the House.  This will set us up for what I think could be a decent Democratic mid-term in 2014.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2011, 12:29:27 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2011, 12:31:46 PM by Politico »

It's going to be a bad night for Obama. Not sure how the too close to call states will go, but I suspect the map will look something like this when Obama concedes (i.e., immediately after the polls close on the west coast, but just presume Hawaii and Alaska go their traditional route):



Obama: 47
Romney: 367
Too Close to Call: 124

A lot of people on here are too young to know what a landslide looks like, but this is what it looks like. And it does happen and it will likely happen to Obama if things do not improve dramatically over the next ten months.

New York?  Did Biden kill one of the Yankees?

Upstate revolt combined with a completely fed up Manhattan and general apathy elsewhere (since it's obvious Obama is going to lose based on national polling) leads to too close to call. If national polling shows Romney up ten or eleven points on Monday before the election, a lot of Obama folks, even in places like Massachusetts and New York, are not even going to bother showing up to vote. That leads to this type of landslide.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2011, 12:31:21 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2011, 12:37:45 PM by Odysseus »



Obama/Biden: 368 Electoral Votes ; Around 54-55% of the Popular Vote
Romney/DeMint: 170 Electoral Votes ; Around 42-43% of the Popular Vote
Others: 0 Electoral Votes ; Around 2-3% of the Popular Vote.

The Democrats keep the Senate with a slightly decreased margin and nearly take back the House.
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,042
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2011, 12:34:50 PM »



Obama 275
Romney 263
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2011, 12:47:46 PM »

Obama somewhat narrowly defeats Romney (with 290-310 EVs) and by 2-4 points in the PV. Democrats hold the Senate by the skin of their teeth, losing Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin while picking up Massachusetts. Republicans suffer losses in the House but also manage to hold.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1220

The margins there aren't an accident--with less of a campaign emphasis on Obama's evil Muslim terrorist radical past and Tea Party disappointment over Romney, with a few therefore pulling for third-parties or staying home. He doesn't come close to winning states like Arkansas, but it's something like 57-41 there. Meanwhile, Romney makes the biggest improvements in suburbia and New England, losing California by 12%, Connecticut by 11%, and New Jersey by 8%.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2011, 01:06:10 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2011, 01:08:46 PM by Nagas »



281-257

New Hampshire and Ohio could go either way.

Obama does well in the Midwest. Michigan stays with him due to the auto-bailout, Wisconsin and Minnesota due to unpopularity with Republicans. The West will once again turnout strongly for him due to Latino turn out, and Democrats performed strongly in Nevada and Colorado in 2010 despite expectations looking grim.

It's nice to see politico again posting a melodramatic map a year out that has no ground in reality (much like he did a few weeks out from 2008).
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2011, 01:09:43 PM »


It's nice to see politico again posting a melodramatic map a year out that has no ground in reality (much like he did a few weeks out from 2008).

Well, that's what I'm here for. But this time is certainly different haha
Logged
GLPman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,160
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2011, 01:22:46 PM »



Romney:276
Obama: 262

This election is going to be really close. This is my best guess right now, although I could also see Obama barely squeaking by. The campaign season and the debates are going to be crucial.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 18, 2011, 02:25:12 PM »

Romney/McDonnell: 50% Popular Vote, 296 EV's
Obama/Biden: 47% Popular Vote, 242 EV's



I really wish we could see more polling in Colorado and Nevada.
Logged
Reaganfan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,239
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2011, 03:11:25 PM »



Romney: 270
Obama: 268

Obama probably wins the popular vote.
Logged
Averroës Nix
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,289
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 18, 2011, 03:17:58 PM »



Obama - 286
Romney - 252

I might want to flip Colorado to Romney.
Logged
NHI
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,140


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 18, 2011, 03:40:37 PM »

Romney/McDonnell vs. Obama/Biden


282
256
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2011, 03:49:07 PM »





Obama:  300
Romney: 209
Disputed: 29

Democrats hold onto the Senate, effectively trading seats in Florida, North Dakota and Nebraska for those in Massachusetts, Nevada, and Arizona, and just fall short of taking the House.

Nelson would have won Florida and the Democrats would have won the US House (and the state legislature) except for massive voter suppression by techniques of dubious legality by Governor Rick Scott in Florida.   



Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2011, 03:49:47 PM »



Obama 51.1%
Romney 47.7%

Obama 296
Romney 242
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2011, 03:53:30 PM »



Obama 380 EVs
Gingrich 158 EVs
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 18, 2011, 03:59:47 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2011, 04:16:30 PM by Northeast Speaker Scott »



Obama 294 EVs
Romney 209 EVs
Not sure 35 EVs
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 18, 2011, 04:03:03 PM »


What happened in the Southeast?
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 18, 2011, 04:12:49 PM »


Oh yeah, that does look weird.  I'll fix it now.
Logged
Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 18, 2011, 04:27:59 PM »

No more than 3 states depart from 2008.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.254 seconds with 13 queries.