Next Anti-Romney

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

With Newt falling in the polls, who do you think will pick up his votes? Will Paul, Santorum, or Huntsman get their moment in the spotlight, or will Perry or Bachmann make a resurgence? Will it matter? What do you think?

[Oakvale]

Polls suggest that, uh, Romney is actually the second choice of most Newt voters.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'm convinced it's Bachmann but we'll see. Romney will probably benefit as well.

[The Mikado]

The new anti-Romney is, in fact, Romney.

[RogueBeaver]

Polls suggest that, uh, Romney is actually the second choice of most Newt voters.

This. The final ABR is in the process of flaming out. Romney coronation, here we come!

[Lіef]

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Guys, the Gingrich collapse has been confined to Iowa so far and Romney hasn't been a benefactor of any of Newton's lost support. The three dwarves will pick up most of his support. Why this is the case:

Gingrich Favorable: Bachmann 68% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable
Gingirch Unfavorable: Bachmann 40% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable

Gingrich Favorable: Perry 53% Favorable, 39% Unfavorable
Gingrich Unfavorable: Perry 33% Favorable, 60% Unfavorable

Gingrich Favorable: Romney 55% Favorable, 39% Unfavorable
Gingrich Unfavorable: Romney 41% Favorable, Unfavorable 54%

Gingrich Favorable: Santorum 60% Favorable, 25% Unfavorable
Gingrich Unfavorable: Santorum 37% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Newt's not facing a catastrophic fall; his support is gradually atrophying. If there is another anti-Romney, he or she won't emerge until after Iowa or New Hampshire. There's just not enough time between now and the caucuses.

By the way, now that the campaign has really begun in earnest, and voters are paying substantially closer attention, it may be the case that whatever factors were responsible for the Flavor of the Month phenomenon are no longer at play.

[cavalcade]

The new anti-Romney is, in fact, Romney.

The pinnacle of Romney flip-floppery.

[Old Europe]

The new anti-Romney is, in fact, Romney.

The pinnacle of Romney flip-floppery.

With Romney it actually makes kind of sense.

[GLPman]

Barry O.

[Politico]

The new anti-Romney is, in fact, Romney.

Yes. Resistance is futile.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Guys, the Gingrich collapse has been confined to Iowa so far and Romney hasn't been a benefactor of any of Newton's lost support. The three dwarves will pick up most of his support. Why this is the case:

Gingrich Favorable: Bachmann 68% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable
Gingirch Unfavorable: Bachmann 40% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable

Gingrich Favorable: Perry 53% Favorable, 39% Unfavorable
Gingrich Unfavorable: Perry 33% Favorable, 60% Unfavorable

Gingrich Favorable: Romney 55% Favorable, 39% Unfavorable
Gingrich Unfavorable: Romney 41% Favorable, Unfavorable 54%

Gingrich Favorable: Santorum 60% Favorable, 25% Unfavorable
Gingrich Unfavorable: Santorum 37% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

Could we have the Ron Paul and John Huntsman numbers as well.

[Nagas]

And Romney won't be able to top this one.

[Politico]

And Romney won't be able to top this one.

Hope? Nope.
Obama 2012

[Lіef]

And Romney won't be able to top this one.

Of course not. Barry's gonna humiliate Moneybags Mitt.

[Badger]

Damned if I know, thought that is the $64,000 question.

The cop-out answer is "the winner in SC". Predicting it now? Seeing the way Newt is utterly crashing, and the Bachmann/Perry/Santorum vote seems incapable of uniting around one candidate. I'm tempted to say "Paul by default", though I'd hasten to add there's no way Paul will adequately unite the ABR vote to seriously challenge the nomination. If you held a gun to my head I'd say the 2nd most likely option is a Rick Perry comeback if he finishes at least 3rd AND ahead of Gingrich in IA. My next "likely" guess would be Newt makes another comeback (he was dead man walking in August remember), stays alive to SC, and Paul and/or Perry don't split the ABR vote enough to deny Newt the win.

[RogueBeaver]

Obama.

[Jerseyrules]

Ron Paul