Obama somewhat narrowly defeats Romney (with 290-310 EVs) and by 2-4 points in the PV. Democrats hold the Senate by the skin of their teeth, losing Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin while picking up Massachusetts. Republicans suffer losses in the House but also manage to hold.
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1220The margins there aren't an accident--with less of a campaign emphasis on Obama's
evil Muslim terrorist radical past and Tea Party disappointment over Romney, with a few therefore pulling for third-parties or staying home. He doesn't come close to winning states like Arkansas, but it's something like 57-41 there. Meanwhile, Romney makes the biggest improvements in suburbia and New England, losing California by 12%, Connecticut by 11%, and New Jersey by 8%.
