Just how likely is a Clegg exit to Brussels in 2014?

[Insula Dei]

I'd say this is a very real possibility, especially if his status within his own party would start to look a little less than totally secure. Would he even be certain of being re-elected in Sheffield Hallam?

[You kip if you want to...]

Assuming they're still polling 10-13% i'd say it's not impossible. The party'd only force him to resign after the election anyway, should he try and stay on.

[Leftbehind]

I'd say this is a very real possibility, especially if his status within his own party would start to look a little less than totally secure. Would he even be certain of being re-elected in Sheffield Hallam?

A poll was commissioned mid-October 2010 by Conservative donor Michael Ashcroft asking just that, which shown in Sheffield Hallam voters would split:

33% Liberal (-20.4%)
31% Labour (+15.0%)
28% Conservative (+4.5%)

Whether all that's happened since then (not least the tuition fees tripling) changes that is something for future polling, but his re-election is clearly not certain. Interesting that in the days when there were no Liberal presence, Hallam was consistently Tory, so if Labour were to oust him it'd be like 1983 in reverse, with them slipping through a split-Right vote (unless boundary changes makes that comparison shaky).

[YL]

Hallam won't exist in its current form, of course.  If it did then (in spite of that poll, which given the source needs to be treated with some scepticism) it'd be very hard for Labour to win, and the local Tories are pretty useless.

The provisional boundary changes remove Dore & Totley, which is the most Tory part of Sheffield and a Labour black hole, and replace it with rather mixed territory (Stocksbridge & Upper Don ward in Sheffield, and Penistone West from Barnsley).  My judgement is that they would just about bring in within reach for Labour, but that it'd still be tough.

2011 council results for current Hallam:
Lib Dem 14670
Lab 10859
Con 7382
Green 4614

2011 council results for proposed Sheffield West & Penistone:
Lib Dem 13212
Lab 13110
Con 7667
Green 4436
Ind 558
BNP 195
(with the major proviso that the Lib Dems and Greens didn't stand in Penistone West, and the Independent and BNP votes are entirely from there)

Of course Clegg wasn't on the ballot, and in many cases the people who were instead were long standing local councillors, and the turnout was lower than it would be in a General Election, and all the other reasons why local results aren't necessarily a reliable guide.