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Author Topic: IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Paul actually takes the lead  (Read 1732 times)
realisticidealist
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« on: December 18, 2011, 11:30:21 pm »
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New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-12-18

Summary:
Paul:
23%
Romney:
20%
Gingrich:
14%
Bachmann:
10%
Perry:
10%
Santorum:
10%
Other:
6%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2011, 11:31:12 pm »
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It has actually happened. Gingrich is in free fall, and Santorum is on the way up too.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2011, 11:31:37 pm »
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So is Paul going to be the new flavor? That would definitely be a WTF.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2011, 11:32:20 pm »
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The Paul people are going to be unbearable this week.
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2011, 11:38:05 pm »
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Don't worry guys, the Gingrich-Bachmann-Perry-Santorum vote is going to coalesce around one candidate before the caucus.
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retromike22
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2011, 11:39:26 pm »
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I can't remember a poll where SIX candidates were in double digits.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2011, 11:39:50 pm »
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Don't worry guys, the Gingrich-Bachmann-Perry-Santorum vote is going to coalesce around one candidate before the caucus.

So you expect the anti-Romney/Paul candidate to defeat Romney and Paul?
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redcommander
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2011, 11:40:57 pm »
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Phil must be happy Santorum is now in double digits. LOL at Gingrich's FAIL of FOTM status.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2011, 11:42:20 pm »
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A Paul and Romney top 2 will virtually guarentee a Romney victory in this primary. Gingrich...the Giuliani of 2008. His national lead just started a few months later.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2011, 11:43:04 pm »
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I'm calling it now: a Santorum surge. He's been barnstorming the state, has a great ground game and has been winning the endorsements of prominent evangelical leaders. I'd assert that his numbers are underestimated in the polls.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2011, 11:43:13 pm »
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Paul is only up 2 from last week, and Santorum's gain isn't that big either actually (he was at 8% last week in PPP's poll apparently).  Romney's the most improved, from 16% to 20%.

Newt seems to be on his way to 6th.

The big, big question here is what the conservatives do.  Someone has to make a last stand in SC.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2011, 11:45:41 pm »
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I'm calling it now: a Santorum surge. He's been barnstorming the state, has a great ground game and has been winning the endorsements of prominent evangelical leaders. I'd assert that his numbers are underestimated in the polls.

I think that's about their only option left. I can't believe that the evangelicals would just roll over for Romney or Paul.
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oakvale
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« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2011, 11:48:43 pm »
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Before this thread is submerged in a deluge of gleeful Paulites, it should be noted that he only gained a mere two points.

The real story is obviously the Gingrich collapse. Haha, Newt Gingrich.
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Meeker
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« Reply #13 on: December 18, 2011, 11:51:03 pm »
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Second choice of Newt's supporters is 30% Romney, 22% Perry, 14% Santorum, 13% Bachmann, 11% Paul. So a further erosion of Newt is only going to help Romney more.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2011, 11:51:35 pm »
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Before this thread is submerged in a deluge of gleeful Paulites, it should be noted that he only gained a mere two points.

The real story is obviously the Gingrich collapse. Haha, Newt Gingrich.

Yeah, going off of PPP's crosstabs, Paul doesn't have much room for growth. His hard ceiling in Iowa appears to be somewhere between 25%-30%. He just isn't that popular among Gingrich supporters to get much of a bounce.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #15 on: December 18, 2011, 11:52:19 pm »
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At this point, Gingrich isn't going to win Iowa. Its down to the ground game now, and he is far behind the others. This is a win-win for Romney - he wins Iowa, he has the nomination. If he loses to another, that candidate and Gingrich will likely split up the vote in SC. Unless there is a shakeup soon, i dont see a good path for a Gingrich victory without Iowa, and who exactly would be left to try and challenge Mitt??

This will be interesting.
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Scott
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« Reply #16 on: December 18, 2011, 11:55:02 pm »
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Looks like Paul fans will have reason to flood YouTube video comment boards for weeks to come.  That last debate must have really changed things.

However, 10% isn't enough for Santorum to be considered 'flavor of the month' (okay, I just threw up a little typing that).
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Meeker
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« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2011, 11:57:27 pm »
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Both Perry and Gingrich's people like Mitt more than Santorum according to the poll (only Bachmann's people really like Santorum as a back-up). I don't see his surge really happening.

Paul is also beating him amongst people who have seen a candidate in person, so I'm not sure his live-in-Iowa strategy is really panning out.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2011, 11:59:49 pm »
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Great news for Santorum.

The Paul people are going to be unbearable this week.

Oh, they're bearable any other time?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2011, 12:15:34 am »
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Santorum's +20 on favorability, 52% favorable and 32% unfavorable, which is a better margin than any other candidate, though Bachmann is close behind at +18.

So Santorum might have some potential for further gains.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2011, 12:19:25 am »
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Don't worry guys, the Gingrich-Bachmann-Perry-Santorum vote is going to coalesce around one candidate before the caucus.

I hope so
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Jbrase
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« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2011, 12:20:46 am »
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The Douchebaggers™  are going to be unbearable this week.

I have noticed every time there is something like this in the news the is a wave of posts like this:
Quote
deluge of gleeful Paulites

Quote
The paultards will be unbearable this week.

I see all these posts about how we will be jizzing our collective pants and will be unbearable yet every time I see more posts about that then there are from actual Paulites. I am convinced that the haters are more obsessed with him than his actual following given how much more you talk about him.

A similar thing happened in the months following Scott Brown's win. I would see a ton of preemptive posts about how GOPers would be crying SCOTT BROWN when when claiming the GOP might win a seat, yet they (who shall henceforth be referred to as Douchebaggers) were the only people that brought him up.

*after I typed this I went back to do this little count*
Posts about the Paultards: 5
Posts  by actual Paulites: 0
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 12:25:11 am by Jbrase »Logged

RogueBeaver
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« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2011, 12:23:22 am »
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Before this thread is submerged in a deluge of gleeful Paulites, it should be noted that he only gained a mere two points.

The real story is obviously the Gingrich collapse. Haha, Newt Gingrich.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2011, 12:24:55 am »
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Among people who claim to have supported McCain in the 2008 caucus:

Paul 24%
Gingrich 22%
Bachmann 15%
Romney 14%
Perry 8%
Huntsman 6%
Santorum 1%

Amusing, given the vast differences between McCain and Paul on foreign policy.  But then, McCain actually did well in the 2008 primaries (at least compared to Huck and Romney) among GOP voters who opposed the Iraq War.  He was strong among voters whose party identification with the GOP was weak, just like Paul.

Most important issue:

jobs / economy:

Romney 25%
Paul 24%
Gingrich 13%

govt. spending / debt:

Paul 21%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 18%

taxes:

Perry 29%
Paul 28%
Gingrich 19%

social issues:

Santorum 29%
Paul 17%
Bachmann 15%

illegal immigration:

Gingrich 28%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%

foreign policy / national security:

Paul 33%
Romney 13%
Perry 11%
Santorum 11%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: December 19, 2011, 12:31:10 am »
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So Newt is actually fizzling out far quicker than Herman Cain did. Fascinating.
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As expected the wop won.

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