Santorum surge about to happen?

[Keystone Phil]

He's polling at 10% in Iowa now, tied with Bachmann and Perry for fourth. Paul is supposedly in the lead. Let's assume that that last point is, unfortunately, true.

I'm of the belief that the party simply won't allow a major victory for Paul. There is also apparently a fear that a Paul victory will delegitimize Iowa. Assuming Republicans in the state agree with both of those points, could the coalescing around Santorum begin in time? He does have the organization. He has put in the time in the state. Can he bring over enough people from the Newt and Perry (maybe even a few from Bachmann) camps?

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe, but he'd flame out even quicker than Huckabee.

[tmthforu94]

I think the Iowa establishment is going to rally around Romney, and an upcoming Branstead endorsement will be a huge boost, but of the "three dwarves", Santorum is the only one who I think could win, similar to Huck in 08. He's running out of time, though.

Has Vander Plaats endorsed yet?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Definitely not in time for the caucuses.

[Keystone Phil]

Has Vander Plaats endorsed yet?

He has not.

[Lincoln Republican]

I believe Santorum could get up to between 5 and 8% in Iowa.

[California8429]

Without another debate I don't see it as possible. The only way he could surge would be to win Iowa because he has no money and no organization outside of the state besides a little in SC. He would be over a whole lot faster than Huckabee and he's been so far down in the polls no one has even looked at his record yet.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Santorum still has the time to pull this off with the incredibly low polling numbers of Paul and Romney. He has the positive media coverage in Iowa, the endorsements and the organization. He will overperform in rural areas, I think. Even if he comes in second/third to Paul and Romney, that's all he needs to make it a race for the rest of the campaign.

Is a Paul vs. Romney vs. Santorum race in the works with Huntsman getting in the mix? That would be interesting.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, there is some Rickmentum. The Ricks are in a 3-way tie for 4th place.

[Meeker]

As I said in the other thread, PPP's poll indicates Romney would be the biggest beneficiary of declining poll numbers from Gingrich or Perry. But by next week that could be totally different, so who really knows. Anything's possible.

[TheGlobalizer]

No.  Santorum offers little different from Perry or Bachmann, with less pizazz.  He'd have to do something to get attention, and I don't see that happening.

Far more likely that the party settles on Romney or Huntsman, IMO.

[Free Palestine]

Title's kinda unfortunate when you know the alternate meaning of "santorum."

[BigSkyBob]

Both Newt and Mitt know Paul isn't going to go anywhere, even if he wins the Iowa caucus. Newt, if he is smart, and he is smart, will focus on doing better than Romney, and, likewise, Romney will realize his path to nomination is bettering Newt in Iowa. Bachmann will realize that her target voter is more likely in the Newt camp, and, Santorum will realize that his target voter isn't attracted to non-interventionism. Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum will all realize their path to victory is being the "Anyone but Newt, or Mitt [Ron who?]" candidate which will require them to savage each other down the stretch.

Paul could easily be given a pass in Iowa.

[Napoleon]

Title's kinda unfortunate when you know the alternate meaning of "santorum."

Santorum has an alternate meaning?

Edit: Google says a former Senator had this last name. Is that what you mean? If so, that would be an unfortunate surge.

[exopolitician]

He could be the Huckabee of 2012.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Well, the only base he could have would be evangelicals, and he's a Catholic and thus is about as likely to get the evangelical vote like Huckabee did as I am of being crowned King of England.

[TJ in Oregon]

Well, the only base he could have would be evangelicals, and he's a Catholic and thus is about as likely to get the evangelical vote like Huckabee did as I am of being crowned King of England.

It's not 1960 anymore. Evangelicals might not like Catholics, but I highly doubt that'll be the main issue. I'm sure they like Catholics more than they like Mormons. And who look who the other candidates are: Romney (Mormon), Gingrich (Catholic), and Paul (crazy, though Baptist). Bachmann, Perry, and Cain got the first three tries as flavor of the month because they are Evangelicals, but those three have failed. I'm not saying Santorum is going to have a surge and while I agree that him being Catholic is a contributing factor, that's not really the reason.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

He's polling at 10% in Iowa now, tied with Bachmann and Perry for fourth. Paul is supposedly in the lead. Let's assume that that last point is, unfortunately, true.

I'm of the belief that the party simply won't allow a major victory for Paul. There is also apparently a fear that a Paul victory will delegitimize Iowa. Assuming Republicans in the state agree with both of those points, could the coalescing around Santorum begin in time? He does have the organization. He has put in the time in the state. Can he bring over enough people from the Newt and Perry (maybe even a few from Bachmann) camps?

We know the GOP has screwed Dr. Paul out of delegates in the past (Washington 2008 primary). I wouldn't be suprised if they fudge the numbers to screw Ron Paul again.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Well, the only base he could have would be evangelicals, and he's a Catholic and thus is about as likely to get the evangelical vote like Huckabee did as I am of being crowned King of England.

It's not 1960 anymore. Evangelicals might not like Catholics, but I highly doubt that'll be the main issue. I'm sure they like Catholics more than they like Mormons. And who look who the other candidates are: Romney (Mormon), Gingrich (Catholic), and Paul (crazy, though Baptist). Bachmann, Perry, and Cain got the first three tries as flavor of the month because they are Evangelicals, but those three have failed. I'm not saying Santorum is going to have a surge and while I agree that him being Catholic is a contributing factor, that's not really the reason.

Depends on the evangelical in question. If they want a crazy bible beater they can go for Bachmann and if they just want another Christian they can work with than they could accept Paul. But I still don't see them going for a Catholic (or a Mormon, for that matter).

[Keystone Phil]

On his show yesterday...

"I love Rick Santorum. ... I know that if Rick Santorum were elected president, I wouldn't have one doubt any day what he would be fighting for, not one. And it would be great if he could get there." - Rush Limbaugh

[Alcon]

I suppose that depends a lot on why Santorum's "unacceptable" numbers are so damn high -- Do people genuinely dislike him, or is the distaste based on a perception of nonviability that could change?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Just prepare yourselves for the Ron Paul Revolution pulling off them upsets. If Rick would lay off the world policeman rhetoric he'd do a lot better. It's why I won't support him though part of me wants to. The same goes for Michelle Bachamann.

[Free Palestine]

Title's kinda unfortunate when you know the alternate meaning of "santorum."

Santorum has an alternate meaning?

Edit: Google says a former Senator had this last name. Is that what you mean? If so, that would be an unfortunate surge.

"The frothy mix of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the byproduct of anal sex."