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Author Topic: Tender Branson's General Election Maps  (Read 16176 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 19, 2011, 02:08:51 am »

I've decided to sticky it here.

Updated Obama vs. Romney map:



Note: Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.

Nevada & North Carolina are pure tossups in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.

Obama: 297 EV
Romney: 209 EV

Tossup: 21 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV


...


Updated Obama vs. Gingrich map:



Note: Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.

Arizona is a pure tossup in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.

Obama: 401 EV
Gingrich: 115 EV

Tossup: 11 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2011, 03:07:17 pm »
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sorry but these map are strange if Mitt Romney will win MI there is no way he will lose FL or NC

and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too

IMO
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2011, 04:29:32 pm »
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http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/

there you can find my maps based on the polls
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oakvale
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2011, 04:41:30 pm »
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Knowing that Hillary2012 is actually a real person who runs a Facebook group and not some kind of spambot that quotes lines from HillaryIs44 is a little unnerving.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2011, 04:07:53 am »

Here is Obama vs. Paul:



A lot of unpolled states (in lighter shades), while MO and IN are also unpolled and not leaning in any direction. IA is a tossup.

Obama: 355 EV
Paul: 156 EV

...

@ Hillary:

I'm not a member of the Facebook sect, could you please post your maps here ? Thx.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2011, 05:37:13 am »
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how can I post a map here??
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2011, 07:18:17 am »

how can I post a map here??

Go here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

and fill out every state like you want it.

Then you click at "show map link" at the bottom of the page.

You copy this link and then you post this link here.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2011, 08:33:58 am »
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sorry but these map are strange if Mitt Romney will win MI there is no way he will lose FL or NC

and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too

IMO

The other way of putting it is that

(1) Michigan (and Pennsylvania) always look tempting to Republicans as a likely zone of political pick-offs, but in practice the labor unions prove the foot-soldiers for Democratic campaigns, and they are almost always (2010 excepted) extremely effective. You can't see now what goes on in the late summer and early autumn... the Religious Right tends to counter that to some extent, but without the numbers they lose. President Obama will get credit for saving the auto industry which will ensure him the huge margins in anything from Lansing to the south and east that will solidify Michigan.   

(2) Ohio is a legitimate swing state to the extent that it has gone with the Presidential  winner in every Presidential year since 1960. Ohio is slightly more R/less D than Michigan in most years, but this time most indicators favor Democrats. Its Democratic Senator is unlikely to lose, the Republican Governor is immensely unpopular, and in the last generic ballot the Democrats had the lead on Congress. As in Michigan, the unions are the real work behind Democratic campaigns, and this time the President will get credit for saving the industries that depend upon the auto industry.

(3) Gingrich has been shown as the most unforgivable phony to conservatives -- not so much for his sleazy marital life, but for first being a political insider and then posing as a political outsider while being a money-grubbing lobbyist. He may become irrelevant very fast. Newt Gingrich bled Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae for filthy lucre.

(4) Florida is beginning to look like a disaster for the GOP. The Governor is so unpopular that if he were the President of an independent Republic he would have to watch his back out of fear of a coup by the Armed Forces. The Democratic Senator is doing fine. The generic ballot favors Democrats in the House. (On the generic ballot for Congress I have only five states available; the Republicans will likely hold their one at-large seat in Congress, but the Democrats have the advantage in  Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All of them -- indicating that unless something goes right for the Republicans, the now-majority delegations from those states will be reversed in 2012, and that will be a huge chunk of what the Democrats need  in 2012 to win the House "back" from the Republicans).             
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2011, 04:10:42 pm »
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I was anti-Obama before it was cool
Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2011, 01:18:13 am »

How exactly did you manage to use the wrong colours with the link I have provided to you ?

Besides, your map isn't based on polling numbers - but more on what you personally think.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2011, 05:40:47 pm »
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no its based on the polls but I dont replace one poll result with another I take the middle

for example:

Today you have a poll for Michigan Obama leads Romney 46/44 and tomorrow another pollster show Romney leading Obama 45/42 then today you would give MI to Obama and the next day to Romney in my electoral map it would be Romney 44.5 and 44 for Obama= a tie
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2012, 11:45:25 pm »
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Obama vs. Romney, PPP (NC to Obama, even if it is by a mere 1%):



Quinnippiac will have a huge poll on Florida released at 6:30 EST
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2012, 09:22:23 am »

Obama vs. Romney (FL to Romney, older NV poll has Obama ahead):

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morgieb
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2012, 07:37:56 pm »
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Pretty interesting, but I can't see Obama winning the Carolina's if he loses Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Michigan.

I think the Paul map also over-estimates his chances in certain states, but as polling is kinda thin on the ground I can sorta understand it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2012, 12:20:31 pm »

Update

Obama vs. Romney (SC to Romney, OH to Obama):

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Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2012, 10:02:17 am »
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NH and MI to Obama against Romney.

Also, someone reeeally needs to poll IN.
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2012, 12:24:31 pm »
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Update

Obama vs. Romney (MI, NH to Obama; FL, MO tie):


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2012, 01:26:49 pm »


Update

Obama vs. Romney (MI, NH to Obama; FL, MO tie):

(map)


Thx for updating, but Obama "leads" in VA as well (by 1 point), per Mason-Dixon.

Obama also leads in the latest FL poll, but Romney leads in NC.



This map looks eerily familiar to a map we have already seen before ... Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2012, 04:02:36 pm »
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Update

Obama vs. Romney (MI, NH to Obama; FL, MO tie):

(map)


Thx for updating, but Obama "leads" in VA as well (by 1 point), per Mason-Dixon.

Obama also leads in the latest FL poll, but Romney leads in NC.



This map looks eerily familiar to a map we have already seen before ... Tongue

The electorate now must look much like that of November 2008. Somehow I think that if President Obama has fulfilled most of his promises and the same people who didn't like those promises to begin with still don't like them even if they are achieved, then the electoral map of 2012 should look much like that of 2008.  So it was in 1956 and 2004.  Four states (KY, LA, MO, WV) shifted between 1952 and three (IA, NH, NM) shifted between 2000 and 2004.

There has been little Deep South or Plains-region polling in recent weeks.
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Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2012, 03:59:16 pm »
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PA to Romney, NC to Obama.

How do I post a map? Do I click the prediction button or the EVC button?
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

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Scott
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2012, 04:05:18 pm »
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PA to Romney, NC to Obama.

How do I post a map? Do I click the prediction button or the EVC button?

http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

Have fun.
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Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2012, 04:18:45 pm »
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Like this?



I'm still not sure how to get that thing with the lighter shades and the pure white for MO, though. Do I do a lower percent thing?
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2012, 06:34:46 pm »
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I should point out that Susquehanna isn't exactly what we'd call a very reputable pollster.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2012, 07:11:50 pm »
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Like this?



I'm still not sure how to get that thing with the lighter shades and the pure white for MO, though. Do I do a lower percent thing?

Use "4" for the color (it's really yellow) and "1" for the shade. The number shows up black for all shades of yellow but white for all shades of red, blue, or green. You can also use it for Indiana if Ohio gives President Obama a 4%-7% lead over the strongest Republican.

I should point out that Susquehanna isn't exactly what we'd call a very reputable pollster.
   

Yes, I would revert Pennsylvania. Susquehanna is practically an in-house pollster for the Pennsylvania Republican Party or Scaife.  Think about it: would you take a poll taken by or for either the UAW or the NAACP seriously? I respect those organizations, but I wouldn't trust them to take an unbiased, scientific poll.       
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2012, 08:11:38 pm »
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Here we go. Susquehanna poll discredited; Indiana considered a toss-up; President Obama goes ahead of everyone in North Carolina.


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