Obama won it 55-43.
Hmm. That's odd.
A Obama+12 result would imply a Democratic leaning district.
But the sample is actually R+7 in SUSA's poll.
Either this district has become much more Republican with Democrats staying at home, or Obama has won Indies by 2:1 there in 2008 (he is about tied there right now).
Or the poll is wrong ...
This is San Diego's northern suburbia (some of it within city limits). This kind of place did swing VERY hard in 2008, and is highly likely to be swinging back far above the national average this year.
But probably not that
far. To be polling below Romney must be ringing all the Drudge Sirens in Bilbray's campaign office, and is certainly not something I would have expected - or that Bilbray can afford.