How Democrats can control the reapportionment process in 2021-2022
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  How Democrats can control the reapportionment process in 2021-2022
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Author Topic: How Democrats can control the reapportionment process in 2021-2022  (Read 1461 times)
Mr.Phips
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« on: December 19, 2011, 07:28:32 PM »

Here is what Democrats need to do to in order to dominate the Congressional reapportionment process in 2021-2022 for the first time since the early 1980's. 

First, hope that Mitt Romney is elected in 2012 and then reelected in 2016.  This will likely ensure that Democrats have an at least neutral envrionment in the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections.

Second, win governorships in 2018.  Many Republican governors elected in the 2010 wave will be term limited, which will give Democrats a chance to make big gains just before the reapportionment process.  Winning governorships in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Texas will block GOP gerrymanders from being repeated and will pretty much break them apart for the 2022 elections. 

Third, win back the New York State Senate(which should be pretty easy) and then redistrict it as soon as it is won to be safely Democratic.  Democrats really missed a chance at this in 2009-2010 when they should have thrown Joe Robach into an inner city Rochester district that would be impossbiel to win and drawn safer districts for Darrell Aubertine and Craig Johnson.

All of this falling into place would probably allow for a Democratic House majority for much of the 2020's.   
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bgwah
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2011, 07:33:02 PM »

lol
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2011, 07:35:27 PM »

This assume that the voting coalitions for the two parties will not be shifting in the next decade. That's a long time scale to make that assumption. If they do shift, the target states are likely to be different than what is perceived today.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2011, 07:40:15 PM »

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Seattle
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2011, 11:23:18 PM »

I'd hope by then, most states will have true non-partisan re-districting committees.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2011, 09:11:28 AM »

At least we'll have the Pa. governorship.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2011, 08:13:41 PM »

How did I know that "elect a Republican President" would be on here?
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #7 on: December 25, 2011, 04:56:29 PM »

the scenario is that Obama wins re-election in 2012 and we can replace Ginsburg and maybe Scalia also. Then in 2016 a republican wins re-election and in 2018 the dems take control of the house and win enough legislative elections so the democrats can finally have this moment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvijyBIgazE
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