Is Ron Paul the third most likely person to be elected President in 2012?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He is per InTrade.

[King]

Yes, but I think Obama has about a 99.5% chance, so 3rd isn't saying much.

[Bull Moose Base]

2 weeks until Iowa and the man leading or tied for the lead in every recent national GOP primary poll is the third on intrade to be the nominee.  And 60 points behind the intrade leader.

[qochimodo]

No, both Hillary and Biden have a better chance.

[NHI]

No.

[BlueSwan]

I have a very hard time conceiving a scenario where Paul wins the presidency. The top 5 most likely scenarios right now:

1. Obama (45%)
Clear favourite against anyone but Romney and possibly Huntsman. Unfortunately for him, Romney will likely be his opponent.

2. Romney (40%)
I give him about a 75% chance of winning the nomination and then about a 55% chance of beating Obama.

3. Gingrich (10%)
Has a decent shot at winning the nomination and will find beating Obama tough.

4. Huntsman (3%)
It is HIGHLY unlikely that he can win nomination, but if he does, he might very well beat Obama.

5. Perry (2%)
In the unlikely event that he wins nomination due to the lack of any candidates that the GOP base likes, and the economy is in absolute shatters, he might somehow be able to pull a GWB on us.

I really don't see how either Paul, Bachmann or Santorum wins this.

[Badger]

I have a very hard time conceiving a scenario where Paul wins the presidency. The top 5 most likely scenarios right now:

1. Obama (45%)
Clear favourite against anyone but Romney and possibly Huntsman. Unfortunately for him, Romney will likely be his opponent.

2. Romney (40%)
I give him about a 75% chance of winning the nomination and then about a 55% chance of beating Obama.

3. Gingrich (10%)
Has a decent shot at winning the nomination and will find beating Obama tough.

4. Huntsman (3%)
It is HIGHLY unlikely that he can win nomination, but if he does, he might very well beat Obama.

5. Perry (2%)
In the unlikely event that he wins nomination due to the lack of any candidates that the GOP base likes, and the economy is in absolute shatters, he might somehow be able to pull a GWB on us.

I really don't see how either Paul, Bachmann or Santorum wins this.

Good analysis, though at this point I'd give the President a 55% chance of beating Romney if he's the nominee.

[Vosem]

1. Obama
Only Romney or Huntsman can beat him.
2. Romney
Obvious
3. Biden
No idea where Hillary comes from. If Obama is taken out (God forbid), Biden will be President and his ego is big enough to let him run for reelection.
4. Huntsman
5. Gingrich/Perry/Santorum/Bachmann; the final anti-Romney

[M]

I have a very hard time conceiving a scenario where Paul wins the presidency. The top 5 most likely scenarios right now:

1. Obama (45%)
Clear favourite against anyone but Romney and possibly Huntsman. Unfortunately for him, Romney will likely be his opponent.

2. Romney (40%)
I give him about a 75% chance of winning the nomination and then about a 55% chance of beating Obama.

3. Gingrich (10%)
Has a decent shot at winning the nomination and will find beating Obama tough.

4. Huntsman (3%)
It is HIGHLY unlikely that he can win nomination, but if he does, he might very well beat Obama.

5. Perry (2%)
In the unlikely event that he wins nomination due to the lack of any candidates that the GOP base likes, and the economy is in absolute shatters, he might somehow be able to pull a GWB on us.

I really don't see how either Paul, Bachmann or Santorum wins this.

I think this is about right. I second Badger, good analysis!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd say :
- Obama : 60%
- Romney : 30%
- Gingrich : 5%
- Perry : 3%
- Huntsman : 1%
- Paul 1%

[Napoleon]

1. Obama
Only Romney or Huntsman can beat him.
2. Romney
Obvious
3. Biden
No idea where Hillary comes from. If Obama is taken out (God forbid), Biden will be President and his ego is big enough to let him run for reelection.
4. Huntsman
5. Gingrich/Perry/Santorum/Bachmann; the final anti-Romney

Hate to break it to you, but the dunces missed out. Paul is your frontrunner now hahaha!!!

[Averroës Nix]

At least fifth, after (in order) Obama, Romney, Perry, and Huntsman.

I can't imagine Biden winning, but I don't know what kind of dynamic an Obama resigning or somehow becoming incapacitated would create.

Paul's chances of winning the nomination remain negligible - though the Jackson '88 comparison keeps seeming more apt. He could be a major troublemaker. On top of that, I think that winning Iowa greatly increases the odds of him pursuing and independent run.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Huntsman? Paul has much more chance than Huntsman ever did.

[Averroës Nix]

Huntsman? Paul has much more chance than Huntsman ever did.

Of winning a state? Yes, I think so. Of winning a larger number of delegates? Definitely.

But like Cain, Gingrich, and Bachmann, Paul doesn't have a path to the nomination; if Perry doesn't recover and Republicans actually refuse to accept Mittens (which I think is very unlikely), Huntsman does. (Santorum might be in a similar position, but he has less money and Iowa more unpredictable at this point than New Hampshire; there are 5-6 candidates who might win Iowa. In New Hampshire there are really only three, and I'd put very good odds on it being Romney.)

[qochimodo]

Huntsman? Paul has much more chance than Huntsman ever did.

0 x whatever is still 0

[Jacobtm]

People always forget about Biden.

For the record, he thinks God wants him to be President.

Biden had felt poorly physically during parts of the campaign, suffering repeated headaches and at one point in September 1987 having to halt a speech in New Hampshire for 15 minutes after feeling faint.[30] In February 1988, he suffered the first of two brain aneurysms that required life-saving surgery and seven months away from the Senate in order to convalesce from.[38][39][40] Biden and others would speculate that had his campaign not ended early, the aneurysms might have been more severe or detected later and that he might not have lived out the year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_presidential_campaign,_1988

He credits God with ending his campaign early, saving his life, so that he could be President another day.

Just a heartbeat away.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He credits God with ending his campaign early, saving his life, so that he could be President another day.

He should rather credit Neil Kinnock.

[TheGlobalizer]

Yes.  Closing on 2nd.