Hungary: A Weimar for the 21st Century?

[YL]

The problem is that MSZP have basically collapsed as an organized entity... iirc polls have them behind or level with Jobbik.

Last Election
Opinion Poll

Fidesz seem to be bad enough, but 24% for Jobbik is scary.

Hungarian politics has been looking bad for a few years now, but I hadn't realised just how bad it seems to have got from the links people have been posting here.

[Leftbehind]

The problem is that MSZP have basically collapsed as an organized entity... iirc polls have them behind or level with Jobbik.

Last Election
Opinion Poll

Is it due to Fidesz' policies, or did they just kill themselves ?

Definitely the latter. Google Mikado's quote above - I'm shocked you've not heard about it before!

[Californian Tony]

The problem is that MSZP have basically collapsed as an organized entity... iirc polls have them behind or level with Jobbik.

Last Election
Opinion Poll

Is it due to Fidesz' policies, or did they just kill themselves ?

Self-suicide and economic crash of 2008 (which hit Hungary very hard). Plus as Al pointed out the MSZP is a "post-communist" party and so has all the baggage that goes with that and as post-1989 East European politics has shown, ex-commie parties even reformed as the most neo-liberal social democrat, can fall pretty hard if things go wrong.

I see. I really don't know how this country will end up. It's really a nightmare.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Wow, this is what you get for stopping paying attention between elections. I had no idea this was happening. I presume the kind of power is similar to Putin?

Putin or worse. The standard comparison that I've seen is Lukashenko.

I really don't understand how this can be happening in an EU member state, but then I remember phrases like 'Marktkonforme Demokratie' and stop being confused and afraid and start being disgusted. And afraid.

I'm reading the preamble to the new Constitution. It's called the National Creed. Most of the actual content is...relatively inoffensive so far (though I do note they seem to have made the Holy Crown the head of state again), but the way it's written, presented, and the fact that it's called the NATIONAL CREED is highly unsettling. I don't expect to like what I see when I get to the actual provisions.


ETA: Okay, it breaks out 'Hungary protects the institution of marriage between man and woman' on the second page of the actual provisions, and it only gets worse from there. Horrible Constitution.

[Foucaulf]

This is a fantastic thread. I didn't think Orban would act so quickly after the elections a few months ago; I guess I was wrong.

This does seem to be similar to Russia, with the three top parties being unpalatable?

But in Russia, the Kremlin has neutered any opposition with its staged opposition. And Orban is not as calculating as Putin. The political situation in Hungary seems more like a government descending further into far-right rhetoric due to its complete inability to add confidence to the economy.

Hungary's debt as % of GDP is near-Britain levels; its bonds are being valued as junk; and there's no EFSF to bail them out. On top of that, the government is cutting harshly but keeps flip-flopping between going to the IMF or walking out. At least Russia has its oil and gas. Hungary just has no idea what it's doing.

You mean, like this?

Surely this is a facsimile of this...

[Link]

ETA: Okay, it breaks out 'Hungary protects the institution of marriage between man and woman' on the second page of the actual provisions, and it only gets worse from there. Horrible Constitution.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that how most of the planet defines marriage?  It's not like they defined marriage as only between a white man and a white woman.  Actually a chunk of the planet defines marriage as between a man and a woman or between a man and multiple women.  Well to be precise I'm pretty sure most of the planet doesn't define marriage because the communities in those countries have a commonly understood meaning and don't really need to codify it.  Just because our country chooses to make a circus out of every little thing doesn't mean the rest of the human race even notices let alone cares about that kind of stuff.

This statement in the constitution is a non issue (barring any additional information).  And it certainly is not apocalyptic.

The rest of the statements in this thread are concerning.  I visited Hungary once.  I liked it.  A lot of culture there.  I hope it doesn't go down the toilet.  I'm very disappointed to hear about these events.

[Vosem]

Can anyone link to an English (or Russian) version of the Nemzeti Hetvallas? Sounds like a fun read.

[asexual trans victimologist]

ETA: Okay, it breaks out 'Hungary protects the institution of marriage between man and woman' on the second page of the actual provisions, and it only gets worse from there. Horrible Constitution.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that how most of the planet defines marriage?  It's not like they defined marriage as only between a white man and a white woman.  Actually a chunk of the planet defines marriage as between a man and a woman or between a man and multiple women.  Well to be precise I'm pretty sure most of the planet doesn't define marriage because the communities in those countries have a commonly understood meaning and don't really need to codify it.  Just because our country chooses to make a circus out of every little thing doesn't mean the rest of the human race even notices let alone cares about that kind of stuff.

Well, yes, but you have to look at this contextually. Hungary isn't a particularly conservative country even by European standards (it has civil unions or some functional equivalent, though one wonders for how long at this rate). Even many countries that are a lot more conservative on these sorts of issues don't feel the need to put this sort of thing on the second page of their constitution, or in it at all.

[Χahar]

Foucaulf makes a really interesting point (as usual); it does look like this is designed to distract the public from Hungary's real problems. It seems to me that this will be fascinating to read about in a few decades' time.

Can anyone link to an English (or Russian) version of the Nemzeti Hetvallas? Sounds like a fun read.

Preamble, constitution

[Link]

ETA: Okay, it breaks out 'Hungary protects the institution of marriage between man and woman' on the second page of the actual provisions, and it only gets worse from there. Horrible Constitution.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that how most of the planet defines marriage?  It's not like they defined marriage as only between a white man and a white woman.  Actually a chunk of the planet defines marriage as between a man and a woman or between a man and multiple women.  Well to be precise I'm pretty sure most of the planet doesn't define marriage because the communities in those countries have a commonly understood meaning and don't really need to codify it.  Just because our country chooses to make a circus out of every little thing doesn't mean the rest of the human race even notices let alone cares about that kind of stuff.

Well, yes, but you have to look at this contextually. Hungary isn't a particularly conservative country even by European standards (it has civil unions or some functional equivalent, though one wonders for how long at this rate). Even many countries that are a lot more conservative on these sorts of issues don't feel the need to put this sort of thing on the second page of their constitution, or in it at all.

true.

I hear you.  I don't know enough about their culture to have an opinion either way.

[asexual trans victimologist]

ETA: Okay, it breaks out 'Hungary protects the institution of marriage between man and woman' on the second page of the actual provisions, and it only gets worse from there. Horrible Constitution.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that how most of the planet defines marriage?  It's not like they defined marriage as only between a white man and a white woman.  Actually a chunk of the planet defines marriage as between a man and a woman or between a man and multiple women.  Well to be precise I'm pretty sure most of the planet doesn't define marriage because the communities in those countries have a commonly understood meaning and don't really need to codify it.  Just because our country chooses to make a circus out of every little thing doesn't mean the rest of the human race even notices let alone cares about that kind of stuff.

Well, yes, but you have to look at this contextually. Hungary isn't a particularly conservative country even by European standards (it has civil unions or some functional equivalent, though one wonders for how long at this rate). Even many countries that are a lot more conservative on these sorts of issues don't feel the need to put this sort of thing on the second page of their constitution, or in it at all.

true.

I hear you.  I don't know enough about their culture to have an opinion either way.

From what I know it's roughly comparable to those of countries like Austria and the former Czechoslovakia on these issues, maybe a little more conservative but not to the extent that I'd expect a constitutional ban to be something with a wide consensus.

[J. J.]

Current standings in Parliament:

Government Coalition (263)
     Fidesz (227) -- Conservatives with an Authoritarian streak
     Christian Democratic People's (36) -- Christian, Social, and National Conservatives
Last Election - Ran as a coalition, winning 263 seats
Opposition parties
     Socialist Party (48) -- Ex Communist, current moderate Social Democrats 59
     Jobbik (46) -- NAZI, NAZIlike, NAZIish, neo-NAZI, (claims to not be NAZI) 47
     Politics Can Be Different (15) -- Soft Liberals, Progressive, Greenish 16
     Independent (14) -- Probably former Socialists 1

It is not quite Weimar.  More a turn to the center-right.

In 1932-33, you had a collapse of the center with the left and right gaining. 

[Jackson]

I was unaware that fascism was considered center-right. Thank you for informing me.

[J. J.]

I was unaware that fascism was considered center-right. Thank you for informing me.

Considering that Jobbik is not in the coalition, I'd still call it center-right.

[Jackson]

For the record, I do not think that the Fidesz party is fascist, however it would seem as if a non-insignificant part of its electoral base is, hence the parties rhetoric concerning "Jewish capital" and its remarks and polices towards Hungary's Roma and GLBT communities.

[Ethelberth]

There were times, when Fidesz was fairly progressive. It has Gypsy MPs and MEPs and was originally rather liberal. Something has changed in recent years.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Wikipedia's article on Orban tells us that he re-purposed it after taking over in the nineties, one imagines to corner a different voter base.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

I was unaware that fascism was considered center-right. Thank you for informing me.

Considering that Jobbik is not in the coalition, I'd still call it center-right.

J.J. does the absence of logic in your posts sometimes irritate you. I mean I understand the desire to be illogical, but does it ever irritate you?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What will the EU do? Or do they not care because it does not involved money?

[asexual trans victimologist]

Considering that they had no problems with Orban as Council President for the first half of this year, after he started doing a lot of this stuff, I doubt they care very much.

[J. J.]

I was unaware that fascism was considered center-right. Thank you for informing me.

Considering that Jobbik is not in the coalition, I'd still call it center-right.

J.J. does the absence of logic in your posts sometimes irritate you. I mean I understand the desire to be illogical, but does it ever irritate you?

I don't see a Weimar parallel.  Simply put, so you will get it, you had both extremes gaining The Nazis on the extreme right and the Communists on the extreme left.  In some ways, Germans were given a choice between right and left. 

Hungary looks more like a drift to the right, possibly internal to Fidesz.

[ingemann]

What will the EU do? Or do they not care because it does not involved money?

The parliament will condemn them.

The council will ignore them, learning the lesson from when Haarder was elected in Austria.

Beside that if any rights of minorities are broken, they can bring it to the European Court, and if the new government ignore that, you will see the different EU institutions react. But before that it serve no purpose.

[Sibboleth]

Stop embarrassing yourself, J. J. It's actually quite painful to watch.

[J. J.]

Stop embarrassing yourself, J. J. It's actually quite painful to watch.

You really have no idea of what happened in 1932, do you?

From what is being described, Fidesz has moved to the right, and the electorate has moved to the right.  You don't have the more extremest parties (on either the left or the right) making huge gains.  You don't have the most right wing party in the coalition.

If Jobbik starts increasing seats at the expense of Fidesz, you could be closer to Weimar, but that hasn't happened yet.

[Sibboleth]

You really have no idea of what happened in 1932, do you?

I have a reasonable idea and even made maps once.

From what is being described, Fidesz has moved to the right, and the electorate has moved to the right.  You don't have the more extremest parties (on either the left or the right) making huge gains.  You don't have the most right wing party in the coalition.

The point is that Fidesz is also an extremist party (at least by the standards of a normal democratic country) which has been governing in an increasingly authoritarian and alarming manner.