Iowa Democratic caucus

[Adele is pudgy!]

According to Wikipedia Obama has some contenders in his own party, who want to give him a rough time.
I just don't understand if they are also on the Iowan ballots.

Can sanyone enlighten me?

[retromike22]

Hillary's going to fly in and begin her revenge!

[Joe Republic]

Indeed, it looks set to be quite a hot contest.  The two challengers poised to give Barack Obama the toughest battle for the nomination are Randall Terry, who plans to run an ad during Superbowl XLVI showing graphic photos of aborted fetuses, and Vermin Supreme, who looks like this:

[Reluctant Republican]

Obama's "strongest" challenger seems to be Darcy Richardson, a historian who has qualified for the ballot in 5 states, including New Hampshire but not Iowa.

[Adele is pudgy!]

Obama's "strongest" challenger seems to be Darcy Richardson, a historian who has qualified for the ballot in 5 states, including New Hampshire but not Iowa.

So, the Iowa Democratic caucus will be ... let's say ... boring?

[Meeker]

There is no ballot in a caucus system. You show up and declare who you support. So theoretically someone could show up and caucus for these guys (or anyone for that matter, including Hillary).

[Oakvale]

Is the Democratic Party actually under any obligation to hold primaries/caucuses? I suppose they probably are given that there's technically a few stunt candidates on the ballot, but what a waste of time and effort.

[RogueBeaver]

Is the Democratic Party actually under any obligation to hold primaries/caucuses? I suppose they probably are given that there's technically a few stunt candidates on the ballot, but what a waste of time and effort.

Yeah, agreed. Since 1980 that whole process has been kind of redundant.

[Meeker]

Is the Democratic Party actually under any obligation to hold primaries/caucuses? I suppose they probably are given that there's technically a few stunt candidates on the ballot, but what a waste of time and effort.

There are things besides Presidential nominations that occur at caucus meetings - elections of party officials, resolutions on issues, additions to the party platform, etc. They serve a useful purpose for the party.

[Oakvale]

Is the Democratic Party actually under any obligation to hold primaries/caucuses? I suppose they probably are given that there's technically a few stunt candidates on the ballot, but what a waste of time and effort.

There are things besides Presidential nominations that occur at caucus meetings - elections of party officials, resolutions on issues, additions to the party platform, etc. They serve a useful purpose for the party.

Ah, this I did not know. What about primaries, though?

[RI]

Hopefully there will at least be a decent Uncommitted vote.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully there will at least be a decent Uncommitted vote.

Polls show that about 80% of Democrats want Obama to win the primaries.

All Democratic candidates in Iowa (or anywhere else) may be happy if they find 100 people statewide, showing up in the caucuses for them.

Obama on the other hand has a good number of offices already set up in the state and is sending out stuff to caucus for him. Therefore I guess that only the die-hard Obama supporters will really show up and vote.

I would be surprised if he got anything less than 95% in Iowa and 90% in NH (because there are more candidates, on a ballot).

Everything below 90% would be embarrassing for him.

Does anyone know how Clinton did in '96 in the early contests ?

[Tender Branson]

Just looked it up:

Obama has to beat

Clinton, Bill             D           76,797 votes       84.37%

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe1996/presprim.htm#nh

in the NH primary.

[Tender Branson]

Everything below 90% would be embarrassing for him.

Well, considering Clinton's primary results, let's say below 80% would be embarassing for Obama.

[Tender Branson]

Also worth reading:

Guess Which Candidate Is The Most Organized In Iowa?

Evan McMorris-Santoro December 13, 2011, 2:42 PM 12788 87

With less than a month to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, you’d probably think the candidate with the most offices and the the biggest operation in the Hawkeye State would be a Republican.

You’d be wrong.

The Obama campaign is touting what it says is already a superior ground operation in Iowa, saying the offices and thousands of volunteer hours it already has up and running in the state are a sign that it’s better prepared for the general election than the other side.

The numbers are indeed stark. While no Republican candidate has more than one campaign office in Iowa, the Obama campaign has eight offices open across the state.

What has all that manpower done since April, when the reelect kicked off? Some stats from the Obama campaign in Iowa:

• Held over 1,000 trainings, planning sessions, house parties, and phone banks.
• Made over 250,000 calls to supporters.
• Held over 2,500 one-on-one conversations.
• Opened eight campaign offices across the state for the November 2012 election- Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, Des Moines, Waterloo, Davenport, Iowa City, Dubuque and Council Bluffs.

When TPM visited Obama HQ in October, the team there talked about its advanced field and turnout operations. The Iowa operation is a real-world example of what that looks like this far out from the general election. And it’s not just Iowa — this sort of commitment to the ground operation already is a key part of Obama’s win strategy, and the campaign says it’s working.

At a briefing with reporters Tuesday morning in Washington, top strategists for the president touted their organization in Iowa and the rest of the nation.

“I think we have more staffers on the ground in Iowa than any of the other campaigns do right now,” Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said. “We have structure on the ground in all the key states — I don’t think any of [the Republicans] do.”

“In the general election, that’s of course going to be an advantage for us when we have to turn folks out,” Messina said.

Obama strategist David Axelrod noted that the Iowa campaign for Republicans looks very different than the one that propelled Obama to an unlikely victory in the 2008 caucuses.

“We spent 83 days in Iowa in 2007,” Axelrod said. “There’s nothing like that going on there now.”

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/team-obama-were-the-most-organized-campaign-in-iowa.php

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Are we seriously discussing this?