Polls for caucuses states
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:30:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  Polls for caucuses states
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Polls for caucuses states  (Read 2643 times)
Adele is pudgy!
necrophiliac
Rookie
**
Posts: 66
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 21, 2011, 08:34:03 AM »

How are primary polls made for states holding caucuses or closed primaries?
It would be illogical to survey random persons.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2011, 08:43:03 AM »

Pollsters screen people by their likelyhood to vote or ask them if they have voted in previous caucuses. If these people say 8/9/10 on a scale, you have a good sample of who is likely to vote.
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2011, 06:32:02 AM »

Actually, to speed processing and keep costs down to acceptable levels while maintaining sufficient numbers of respondents to give provide statistical validity, a number of pollsters use panels.

These panels allow comparison of choices over time.

Logged
Adele is pudgy!
necrophiliac
Rookie
**
Posts: 66
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2011, 07:43:49 PM »

Pollsters screen people by their likelyhood to vote or ask them if they have voted in previous caucuses. If these people say 8/9/10 on a scale, you have a good sample of who is likely to vote.

Actually, to speed processing and keep costs down to acceptable levels while maintaining sufficient numbers of respondents to give provide statistical validity, a number of pollsters use panels.
These panels allow comparison of choices over time.

You both have to admit that polls only make sense when they are about open primaries.

Surveys about caucuses and/or closed primaries are rather useless.
Logged
SmugDealer
Rookie
**
Posts: 41


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2011, 11:06:43 PM »

Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll. Polls for the Iowa Caucus are often very far off.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,042
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2011, 11:14:03 PM »

Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll. Polls for the Iowa Caucus are often very far off.

Until the last few days, that is.  In 2008, Zogby (of all people!) managed to nail both of the Dem and GOP caucuses in Iowa in his final poll there.  ARG (!!) also nailed the GOP side (but screwed up on the Dems), while Insider Advantage nailed the Dems (but didn't poll the GOP side).
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2011, 12:09:43 AM »

Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll. Polls for the Iowa Caucus are often very far off.

Until the last few days, that is.  In 2008, Zogby (of all people!) managed to nail both of the Dem and GOP caucuses in Iowa in his final poll there.  ARG (!!) also nailed the GOP side (but screwed up on the Dems), while Insider Advantage nailed the Dems (but didn't poll the GOP side).

not to mention.  Selzer & Co.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2011, 07:05:25 PM »

How are primary polls made for states holding caucuses or closed primaries?
It would be illogical to survey random persons.

They call random people, ask their partisan affiliation, often apply a likely voter screen (as mentioned above), then only actually poll the people who are likely to vote and properly registered to do so.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 14 queries.