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Erc
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« on: December 21, 2011, 03:12:05 pm »
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In the manner of my similar 2008 topic, I'll be keeping a tally of the delegates for each candidate as best as can be done, discussing upcoming contests, and making (conservative) projections for future contests when useful.

For entertainment purposes: Map with Delegate Counts.

StateRomneySantorum*GingrichPaulUncommittedTotal
Iowa1010+1-5+1128
New Hampshire7--3212
South Carolina2-23--25
Florida50----50
Nevada14365-28
Colorado136-9836
Minnesota3230+111240
Maine11+23-7124
Arizona29----29
Michigan1614---30
Wyoming22+12-1329
Washington346--343
Alaska8826327
Georgia21352--76
Idaho32----32
Massachusetts38+2---141
North Dakota0+70+80+10+21028
Ohio3821--766
Oklahoma131413-343
Tennessee17299-358
Virginia43--3349
Vermont94-4-17
Guam6+3----9
Northern Marianas6+3----9
Kansas733---40
Virgin Islands3+4--119
Alabama1222+113-250
Mississippi12+11312-240
Hawaii95-3320
American Samoa6+3----9
Puerto Rico20+3----23
Illinois42+212--1369
Louisiana510--3146
District of Columbia16+1---219
Maryland37----37
Wisconsin339---42
Total676260132611041233
Other Supers+9-+1--+10

Recent Updates:
4/15:  Minnesota, Colorado results updated.  (Final Main Page updates for the season)
4/6:  North Dakota results updated.
4/3:  Tennessee results updated.  DC/MD/WI results added.

* Santorum has suspended his campaign.  Discussion here.

The +1 or similar on delegate counts above represent unpledged delegates (RNC members, or delegates explicitly elected for Huntsman or as Uncommitted) who have endorsed that candidate.  As these are delegates who are free to change their minds and whose seats at the convention are not tied in any way to the will of the voters, I think it best to denote them separately.

The "Other Supers" row represents the RNC member endorsements in states yet to vote.  I'm taking my figures from Demconwatch, which is generally more conservative in counting endorsements than CNN or the AP.

Italicized States represent Caucus/Convention states that have not yet finished their processes.  As a result, their final delegate counts may be substantially different than those listed here, due to a variety of factors.  These include but are not limited to: winnowing of less popular candidates at the process continues; tactical voting; local 'superdelegates' in certain states; unknown particulars of the delegate selection process; and motivation gaps, including the "Stealth Paul Effect."  

Underlined States have been penalized by the RNC for having their contests too early in the season.  It is possible the RNC may eventually remove these sanctions (or, in the case of AZ/FL, add more).  Click on the state's link to find their delegate allocations in the absence of sanctions.

Other state-particular uncertainties include:

AL/GA/TN:  Different sources are reporting different results in these states.  In AL & TN, the RNC claims Gingrich has an extra delegate (at the expense of Romney); in GA, the results provided by the Secretary of State would seem to indicate Gingrich has two extra delegates (at the expense of Romney).
OH: 4 delegates in the 'Uncommitted' column will be assigned by a contest committee; it is likely they will be assigned to Santorum.
ND:  The delegation may choose to allocate itself based on the caucus results (7-11-2-8-0) or by their personal conscience (13-8-1-2-4).  Listed above is the worst case scenario for each candidate.

The Upcoming Calendar:  
May 5:  Minnesota State Convention ends.
May 6:  Maine State Convention.
May 8:  Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia Primaries.
May 15:  Oregon Primary, Nebraska Beauty Contest.
May 22:  Arkansas, Kentucky Primary.
May 29:  Texas Primary.
June 2:  Louisiana, Missouri, Washington State Conventions.
June 5:  California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries, Montana Beauty Contest.
June 9:  Indiana, Illinois State Conventions end.
June 10:  Nebraska County Conventions end.  Pennsylvania State Committee Summer Meeting.
June 16:  Iowa, Montana State Conventions end.
June 26:  Utah Primary.
July 14:  Nebraska State Convention.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2012, 12:45:23 am by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2011, 04:32:29 pm »
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This should be stickied.
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2011, 05:16:12 pm »
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This should be stickied.
Seconded.

Erc, what is your source for the number of delegates each state has?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2011, 06:03:08 pm »

Erc, what is your source for the number of delegates each state has?

You can find it in a number of places, including here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2011, 09:13:09 pm »
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The Green Papers is as always your best friend, though it helps to go back to the source since they aren't completely infallible.

Since the Republicans never had McGovern-Fraser, the delegate selection can often be a bit arcane for the Republicans and varies wildly from state to state, the delegate allocation is a lot less complicated---and, thank goodness, there are far fewer "superdelegates:"  there are only 168 of them (3 from each state / territory / DC), around 7% of the total.  While that could make a difference in a tight race, they'd need to break overwhelmingly one way of the other.

As for the 'regular' delegates, it's really quite simple:

--10 delegates At-Large [to wit, 5 for each Senator]
--3 for each Congressional District
Plus some "Bonus Delegates" At-Large for the more Republican states:
--If it voted for McCain in 2008, it gets a bonus (4.5 + 60% * Electoral Vote) delegates, rounded up.
--1 Bonus Delegate for a Republican Governor elected since January 1, 2008
--1 Bonus Delegate for an at least 50% of its House Representatives being Republican since January 1, 2008
--1 Bonus Delegate for one chamber of the state legislature having a majority of Republicans with a Republican presiding officer
--1 Bonus Delegate for both chambers
--1 Bonus Delegate for each Republican Senator elected since January 1, 2006 (max 2)  [Does Murkowski count as a Republican?]

Puerto Rico gets 20 delegates, DC 16, the other territories 6 each.

States that go "early" (before March for most states, before February for NH/IA/NV/SC) are penalized and lose half their delegates (rounded up), and the "superdelegates" can't be among the half that remain.  Iowa is not penalized, since the caucuses don't actually choose the delegates, the State Convention in June does.  New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan [and perhaps Puerto Rico and the Northern Marianas] will be penalized.

Iowa, which did not vote for McCain in 2008, has considerably fewer delegates than it did last time around, only getting 3 bonus delegates:  1 for Gov. Terry Branstad, 1 for Sen. Chuck Grassley, and 1 for a Republican majority in the Iowa House of Representatives.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2011, 09:19:49 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2011, 12:41:01 am »
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Although people often talk about how "this thing could be over by NH", Only a fraction of delegates are being decided in all the contests before Super Tuesday.

I think that January and February will winnow the field down to Romney, Paul and one conservative (probably Perry or Gingrich). And even if that conservative hasn't won any races until that point, they will still ahve a chance because there are still 80-90% of the delegates still up for grabs
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2011, 04:04:05 am »
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Although people often talk about how "this thing could be over by NH", Only a fraction of delegates are being decided in all the contests before Super Tuesday.

I think that January and February will winnow the field down to Romney, Paul and one conservative (probably Perry or Gingrich). And even if that conservative hasn't won any races until that point, they will still ahve a chance because there are still 80-90% of the delegates still up for grabs

Rudy, is that you?
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2011, 08:32:03 am »
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Although people often talk about how "this thing could be over by NH", Only a fraction of delegates are being decided in all the contests before Super Tuesday.

I think that January and February will winnow the field down to Romney, Paul and one conservative (probably Perry or Gingrich). And even if that conservative hasn't won any races until that point, they will still ahve a chance because there are still 80-90% of the delegates still up for grabs

Sorry, but, neither Perry nor Gingrich are conservatives.
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2011, 05:11:42 pm »
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Well both Perry and Gingrich have (at different times) been the overwhelming favored choice of Self-described conservatives and tea party supporters according to the polls.

And Romney certainly isn't a conservative and Ron Paul is a libertarian/conservative.

I guess I find it hard to believe that conservatives in the post IA/NH states will just jump onto the Romney train just because the conservative vote was split, letting Romney and Paul perform well. Once people start dropping out there will be time for someone to consolidate that vote and with so few delegates chosen early on there is plenty of time to actually win delegates, especially in all the southern primaries.
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2011, 11:22:22 pm »
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Certainly, even if Romney wins both IA & NH (or Paul IA, Romney NH), the race isn't over yet.  If Romney wins SC, though, does anyone honestly think that anyone else would have a real chance at the nomination at that point?  I could see Perry or Huntsman sticking it out past then if they did reasonably well, if only because they have the money to do so (and of course Paul will regardless).  But I'd say that a Romney win in SC would pretty much cement him as being at least acceptable to conservatives (especially since I doubt the field would be much divided at that point, unlike the 4-way race that was SC in 2008).
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2011, 12:35:43 am »

The RNC has apparently just released this document (posted online by The Weekly Standard):

http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/docs/2012%20RNC%20Delegate%20Summary.pdf

which summarizes the delegate selection rules for every state and territory.
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« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2011, 01:34:55 pm »

FHQ has a table that summarizes the RNC document and compares to 2008 rules posted here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/12/republican-delegate-allocation-rules.html

Note that the largest change from 2008 is that a number of the states that used to be straight WTA are now using some kind of "conditional WTA" rule, which means that the delegate allocation is proportional, unless one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, in which case it reverts to WTA.  So if the race can narrow to a 2-person contest quickly, then you'll have a lot of WTA states, but if there are 3 or more candidates, then it'll be more a long slog for one candidate to reach a majority of delegates.
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« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2011, 03:43:12 pm »
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As far as pledged party leader delegates go, does that generally go to the winner of the state or is that determined by state?

For example would I be correct in assuming that S.C which has 10 at large delegates, 16 bonus delegates, 3 party delegates and 21 CD delegates, the breakdown would go 29 delegates to the state winner and 3 delegates to each CD winner?  And then the 50% penalty on top of that?
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« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2011, 01:48:24 pm »
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Yes it is really a delegate fight.
hope so good result in this fight, which help development of
US financial condition and prosperity of United states of america.

Thanks
full service movers
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« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2011, 06:01:57 pm »
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Although people often talk about how "this thing could be over by NH", Only a fraction of delegates are being decided in all the contests before Super Tuesday.

I think that January and February will winnow the field down to Romney, Paul and one conservative (probably Perry or Gingrich). And even if that conservative hasn't won any races until that point, they will still ahve a chance because there are still 80-90% of the delegates still up for grabs

Rudy, is that you?

This, basically.  No one "wins" the primaries after the first few smallish states, but the field has been vetted and the lay of of the land is pretty clear at that point.  This is why I think it was a bad idea for Huntsman to skip IA, and why Romney should not have flip-flopped (oh, the irony) on campaigning in IA.
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« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2011, 09:05:05 pm »
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I know that momentum in past years has been a big factor. However 2012 has been unusual. We have seen the conservative/tea party/evangelical vote go from one non-Romney to the other. Are all of these people going to suddenly all rally to Romney after he wins a couple of primaries (and after 2 or 3 non Romney's drop out)? 

I still think Someone will emerge as the conservative champion in addition to Paul and Romney, unless Santorum, Bachmann, Gingrich and Perry all hold on until Super Tuesday (which seems unlikely).
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« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2011, 11:24:04 pm »
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Forgive me if this has been covered before, but the green papers website is confusing.  Do the Iowa Caucuses actually award delegates just like a normal primary?  I heard a CNN commentator saying the Caucuses are meaningless except for momentum, much like the Ames Straw Poll?
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« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2011, 12:35:41 pm »
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They are semi-meaningless and semi-meaningful Bush.  The tally coming out of Iowa is essentially a straw poll, but it will mirror the composition of the caucus goers who will be selecting delegates to the county conventions in March.  Those delegates won't be bound to support in March those who they support now (which is why Iowa will not be penalized for going early) but likely will unless their candidate has dropped out by then.
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« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2011, 12:53:17 pm »
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They are semi-meaningless and semi-meaningful Bush.  The tally coming out of Iowa is essentially a straw poll, but it will mirror the composition of the caucus goers who will be selecting delegates to the county conventions in March.  Those delegates won't be bound to support in March those who they support now (which is why Iowa will not be penalized for going early) but likely will unless their candidate has dropped out by then.

Almost like the General Election on November 6 chooses the Electors who will officially cast their vote for President a few weeks later, should be the same, but they are free to change their mind as in 2004 when one Minnesota Elector defected and voted for John Edwards.  Is that basically the same idea?
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« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2011, 02:41:17 pm »
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They are semi-meaningless and semi-meaningful Bush.  The tally coming out of Iowa is essentially a straw poll, but it will mirror the composition of the caucus goers who will be selecting delegates to the county conventions in March.  Those delegates won't be bound to support in March those who they support now (which is why Iowa will not be penalized for going early) but likely will unless their candidate has dropped out by then.

Almost like the General Election on November 6 chooses the Electors who will officially cast their vote for President a few weeks later, should be the same, but they are free to change their mind as in 2004 when one Minnesota Elector defected and voted for John Edwards.  Is that basically the same idea?
Similar.  However, many states bind their electors to the popular vote, so they electoral college does not have nearly as much leeway as the Iowa delegates.  Also, the electors do not have to worry about their favored candidate not being around when the voting occurs (unless he dies, which would be a legal nightmare- this actually happened in 1872 when Greeley died in December, before the electoral college met, but because he lost in a landslide to Grant, it did not matter).  Paul could win Iowa, but be out by the convention.
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« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2012, 01:32:56 am »
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Erc's Unofficial Delegate Projection: Iowa

With the results mostly in (in fact, I could have called this hours ago), I can feel confident to make a delegate projection as per the method I stated before the caucuses:

Rick Santorum: 7
Mitt Romney: 7
Ron Paul: 7
Newt Gingrich: 2
Rick Perry: 1
Michelle Bachmann: 1

Each of the top three candidates get a delegate from each CD and 3 delegates statewide.  The remaining candidates that competed in Iowa got enough votes statewide to potentially earn a delegate or two out of the 13 At-Large delegates.  I really don't like giving Bachmann a delegate (and even if she had completely loyal supporters and she stayed in the race, it'd be incredibly unlikely she'd come up with a delegate here), but the alternative is giving it to the winner, and with the vote as close as it is, it would be disingenuous to give it to anyone.

Of course, it's very likely that the final delegate count will look nothing like this, even if the race is still competitive by the time of the State Convention in June.  Clearly, Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann's supporters at the County Conventions are likely to support other candidates after they've (presumably) dropped out.  Furthermore, the multiple layers of conventions are likely to favor the leading three candidates over the trailing three, if only by rounding errors.  And of course, any amount of tactical voting or collusion (to lock out Ron Paul from getting delegates, for example) we won't know about until the conventions themselves.


Going forward:

With Bachmann's 6% place finish and Perry going back to Texas, I'm going to consider them effectively out of the race until they show a sign of life elsewhere.  To save space, their 2 delegates in Iowa are going into the "Other/Uncommitted" column along with the 3 RNC members from Iowa.

Main post will be updated to reflect this and with New Hampshire info shortly!
« Last Edit: January 04, 2012, 02:42:46 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2012, 01:37:02 am »
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Iowa: January 3, 2012

Overview
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Caucus, Conventions
13 At-Large
12 by Congressional District
3 Party Leaders

At the Caucus / What the Media Reports
Republican caucus-goers participate in a straw poll, and the results of this straw poll are reported to the media---unlike for the Democrats, it is an actual vote total being reported.  Caucus-goers in each precinct also choose delegates to the County Conventions.  

County Conventions
March 10: Delegates were chosen to the [Congressional] District Conventions and the State Convention.  Apart from the usual Paulista rumors, there are no reliable statewide reports of what occurred at each convention, so we will have to wait until the state convention in June to get a better idea of the final totals.

District Conventions
April 21: Each of the 4 districts reports its preferred presidential candidate.  This has no binding effect whatsoever on final delegate selection.

State Convention
June 16:  
First, the caucus of delegates from each CD choose their 3 delegates each.
Then, the Convention as a whole decides on the 13 At-Large delegates.

Caucus/Convention Caveat
The entire system is very informal, with no explicit method for tying the ultimate selection to the wishes of the initial caucus-goers.  The delegates themselves aren't chosen until June, at a convention whose delegates were chosen at other conventions whose delegates were chosen by the caucus-goers.  In general (especially if there's a strong Paul showing), expect the final delegate counts to differ greatly from the original caucus result, whether due to tactical voting or due to simple bandwagoning around a presumptive nominee.

Erc's Unofficial Delegate Count:  IA
Statewide and in Each CD:  'Alabama Method'--chosen as it gives a distinct advantage to the winner of the state, as we would expect, and we really have no good idea how the conventions will choose delegates in any event.  Nevertheless, this will still likely give too much support to minor candidates and too little to the frontrunner.  I would especially not expect this to work well if Paul has a good showing.

If a candidate receives a majority in a jurisdiction, give him all the delegates therefrom.
Multiply the total number of delegates in the jurisdiction (13 statewide, 3 in each CD) by the candidate's percentage of the popular vote in that jurisdiction.  Round to the nearest whole number for each candidate.  Should there be an excess of delegates, remove delegates from the least-popular candidate.  Should not enough delegates be assigned, assign the remainder to the winner of that jurisdiction.

As the polling is all over the place at the moment, and there are likely to be variations in the result across districts, I am not going to even bother making a preliminary projection for Iowa.

RNC Members
AJ Spiker - Paul
Steve Scheffler
Kim Lehman - Santorum

Preliminary Delegate Allocation ( as of January 8 )
Romney - 10
Santorum - 10
Paul - 5

Details and justification for this breakdown found here and here.  These results are subject to change given more data on the election of delegates to the county/state conventions, especially after the county conventions on March 10th.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2012, 01:30:48 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2012, 02:04:02 am »
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If I can find any good info on how many delegates each county (or heck, each precinct) sends to the State (or County) Conventions, I may do a more detailed projection for the Iowa delegates.
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« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2012, 02:14:58 am »
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New Hampshire: January 10

Overview
12 Delegates (0.53% of total)
Primary
12 At-Large, P10%

Delegates are assigned proportionally to the statewide vote, with a 10% cutoff.  Rounding is done to the nearest whole number.  If any delegates remain, assign them to the winner.

New Hampshire violated RNC rules by holding its primary before the first Tuesday in February, and thus lost its half its delegate (including the RNC member seats).  It is possible these may may be restored later by the RNC, in which case the New Hampshire Primary would be assigning 20 delegates.

RNC Members

Note:  Due to RNC sanctions, no RNC members from New Hampshire have voting privileges at the convention unless the sanctions are removed.

Wayne MacDonald
Steve Duprey
Phyllis Woods

Pledged Delegate Allocation (as of January 10)
Romney - 7
Paul - 3
Huntsman - 2

There is some uncertainty in this allocation due to the sanctions imposed by the RNC.  In the absence of sanctions, the allocation would be Romney - 12, Paul - 5, Huntsman - 3, and the campaigns have since chosen their delegates based on the unsanctioned numbers.

This leaves it unclear as to which of these 20 delegates will be seated.  A 7-3-2 split still makes the most sense, but there is some room for rounding ambiguities (most likely in favor of Romney at the expense of Huntsman; as Huntsman delegates are likely in the Romney camp at this point anyway, the issue is likely moot).

Huntsman's Delegates

Huntsman has since dropped out of the race, leaving his two delegates effectively as unpledged 'superdelegates.'  In particular, they do not need to pay any attention to Jon Huntsman's endorsement of Romney.

Due to sanctions, there is some ambiguity over who Huntsman's two delegates to Tampa are, precisely.  However, we do know they will be two out of three of the following:

Paul J. Collins, Jr. - Romney
Renee Plummer
Sarah Stewart

Plummer and Stewart remain Uncommitted; Plummer has stated she will remain uncommitted until the convention.  Stewart was in the Pawlenty camp until he dropped out.

Note that Huntsman's delegates do differ from ordinary superdelegates in one respect; they have pre-determined alternates!  Their names can be found in the link above.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 12:48:44 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2012, 01:17:20 pm »
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According to CNNPolitics.com, the delegate breakdown from Iowa are as follows - Romney, Santorum, and Paul each get 7 delegates while Gingrich and Perry get 2 apiece for a total of 25 pledged delegates plus there are 3 more unpledged.

Romney currently has 18 delegates (7 from Iowa, 11 unpledged).
Santorum currently has 11 delegates (7 from Iowa, 4 unpledged).

EDIT:  According to CNN Politics, Santorum only has 8 delegates (7 from Iowa, 1 unpledged)

Ron Paul currently has 7 delegates (all from Iowa)
Rick Perry has 4 delegates (2 from Iowa, 2 unpledged)
Newt Gingrich has 2 delegates (both from Iowa)
Michelle Bachmann did not have any delegates at time of drop out
Jon Huntsman has 0 delegates so far.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2012, 02:24:19 pm by Mitt Romney 2012!! »Logged

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