The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Erc]

I found an actual MI GOP source for the CD breakdowns.  Since the MI GOP is what matters here, we should take this as the most authoritative source:

MI GOP Primary Results by CD

This has some major differences from the AP results.  Note that Romney is ahead in CD 5 by a few hundred votes, as expected.  CD 14 is the really odd one, though, with more than double the number of votes reported here than in the AP results.


Both AP and MI GOP counts are missing thousands of votes (compared to the statewide total), so they obviously haven't finished their tallying.

[cinyc]

For main-page purposes, I'm going to move CD 5 back to Uncommitted, for now (Romney and Santorum trade CD 10 and CD 13).  The remaining delegates are split 15-13 for Santorum.

Why do you get 15-13?  Are the statewide two delegates split or do they both go to the winner?

[Erc]

For main-page purposes, I'm going to move CD 5 back to Uncommitted, for now (Romney and Santorum trade CD 10 and CD 13).  The remaining delegates are split 15-13 for Santorum.

Why do you get 15-13?  Are the statewide two delegates split or do they both go to the winner?

The reports are rather conflicting on that point.  The original delegate plan (pre-sanctions) had the At-Large delegates being assigned proportionally, with a 15% threshold.

Post-sanctions, it hasn't been as clear how the remaining 2 At-Large delegates will be assigned.  Some sources have said WTA, but the campaigns and sources within the MI GOP seem to indicate they'd be allocated proportionally (i.e. 1 for each), and I'm going with the latter interpretation.

[Erc]

To make clearer my skepticism of the AP results by CD:

It's clear the AP is missing a bunch of results.  If you sum up their results by CD, Romney is 23,405 votes short of his statewide total (according to the Michigan SoS), and Santorum is short 16,582.

Most likely they just omit precincts that are split or that they are unsure about which CD they're in...it's 99% of precincts they know about reporting.

The situation for the MI GOP count is a bit better, but a bit weirder.  Romney is only short 893 votes, but Santorum has 2,532 more votes than in the SoS count.

[Erc]

Update on Alaska:

A Presdential Preference Poll is held statewide on March 6th, Super Tuesday, but only 17 out of 40 District Conventions are held on the 6th, and it is the preference of attendees at the latter that matter.

As a result, we should really not try to extrapolate any delegate information from the results from Alaska on Tuesday (not all people who vote in the Presidential Preference Poll will attend the District Conventions, even if held on the same day and in the same place; there are registration fees for the latter, for example).

We will not know the complete delegate distribution from Alaska until the final District Convention is held on March 24 in Nome.

[Erc]

Alaska: March 6

Overview
27 Delegates (1.18% of total)
Conventions
24 At-Large, Proportional
3 RNC members

AK GOP Rules

The 24 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally based on the vote held on March 6.  The proportionality is not based on the raw vote; instead, each district convention has its say weighted by the number of delegates to which it is entitled at the State Convention.  Number of delegates per district can be found here.

All rounding of fractional delegates is done up for the number of highest finishers so that 24 delegates are allocated; all other rounding is down.

If any candidate entitled to delegates drops out between March 6 and the State Convention (April 26-28), the State Convention chooses officially 'Uncommitted' delegates in their stead.

RNC Members

Randy Ruedrich
Ralph Seekins
Debbie Joslin

Preliminary Results (as of 3/22)

Romney - 8
Santorum - 8
Paul - 6
Gingrich - 2

A final canvass of the votes has been completed and the resulting delegate count calculated.  Santorum picked up a delegate that I had originally assigned to Gingrich.

[Erc]

AP has updated their by-CD results and now Romney has a 500-odd vote lead in CD 5.

I still don't like the look of some of their Wayne County results, but I now think everyone is in agreement as to who won which CDs.

This makes a final delegate total of Romney 15, Santorum 15 (with an outside shot at a 16-14 split if Romney is awarded both At-Large seats).

[Erc]

I was mistaken as to the role of the Wyoming Precinct Caucuses (the Green Papers are not gospel, the Green Papers are not gospel).

My apologies to the folks I (wrongly) "corrected" over the last week or so.

Very tentative delegate allocation is:

Romney - 11
Santorum - 9
Paul - 6

(An alternative delegate allocation featuring Romney with 10 and Gingrich with 1 is also feasible [and CNN uses it], but I imagine Gingrich will get winnowed out at the County Conventions).

As usual, this doesn't account for a whole host of factors, all of which are exacerbated by the low turnout.  More details in the main Wyoming post.

[Erc]

Late March
or, The Treasure Fleet stops in San Juan in March, late in the month.

Puerto Rico: March 18

Overview
23 Delegates (1.01% of total)
Primary
20 At-Large, Proportional
3 RNC Members

If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, they receive all 20 delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are allocated proportionally, apparently with a 15% threshold (rounding details unknown).

RNC Members

Carlos Méndez - Gingrich
Luis G. Fortuno - Romney
Zoraida "Zori" Fonalledas - Romney

Results (as of 3/18)

Romney won a majority and all 20 delegates.

Illinois: March 20

Overview
69 Delegates (3.02% of total)
Primary/Convention
54 by CD, "Loophole"
12 At-Large, Convention

IL GOP Bylaws
Sample Ballot

Each CD has between 2-4 delegates assigned to it, depending on its share of the vote for John McCain in 2008.  The exact allocation per CD can be found at the Green Papers.  Voters vote for delegates directly, casting their vote for 2-4 (depending on their district) delegates, and the top 2-4 (as appropriate) vote winners have their ticket punched for Tampa.  Delegate candidates' Presidential Preference is listed by their name on the ballot, though the delegates are not officially bound.  

A presidential preference poll is also held; this has no bearing on delegate allocation.

12 delegates are chosen by the State Convention on June 8-9.  It is unclear how the delegates attending the State Convention are chosen.

Ballot Access

Santorum has no delegates on the ballot in 4th, 5th, 7th, and 13th CDs, and thus can win at most 44 out of a possible 54 points delegates.

RNC Members

Patrick Brady - Romney
Richard Williamson - Romney
Demetra DeMonte

Preliminary Results (as of 3/20)

Romney - 42
Santorum - 12

The AP has yet to call 11 delegates, so some of these may change as the final results come in.  Remember that a final 12 delegates will not be selected until June 9.

Louisiana: March 24, April 28

Overview
46 Delegates (2.01% of total)
Primary/Caucus/Convention
20 At-Large (Proportional, 25%)
18 by CD (Caucus/Convention)
5 At-Large (Smoke-Filled Room)
3 RNC Members

Primary: March 24

20 delegates are assigned proportionally, based on the percentage of the statewide total vote received, amongst all candidates meeting a 25% threshold.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number.  Any remaining delegates (left over due to rounding errors or the threshold) are officially Uncommitted.

Caucus: April 28

District Caucuses choose delegates to the State Convention.

State Convention: June 2

Attendees meet by CD and choose 3 delegates per CD, for a total of 18. 

The convention as a whole also chooses the 20 At-Large delegates; these are mostly bound by the results of the primary, except for any designated as Uncommitted (there are 5 such delegates).

5 additional At-Large delegates are nominated by the Executive Committee and elected by the convention as a whole.

RNC Members

Roger F Villere, Jr.
Ross Little, Jr.
Ruth Ulrich

Note that Ruth Ulrich is also the vice-chairwoman of the RNC.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/25)
Santorum - 10
Romney - 5
Uncommitted - 5

Remember, an additional 23 delegates (as well as those 5 Uncommitted At-Large delegates) are chosen later in the process.

Missouri: March 15-24, April 21, June 2

Overview
52 Delegates (2.27% of total)
Caucus/Convention
24 by CD
25 At-Large
3 RNC Members

Missouri Caucus and Convention information

A Presidential Preference Primary was held on February 7.  This had no impact whatsoever on delegate allocation.

County Caucuses: March 15-24

County caucuses elect delegates to Congressional District and State Conventions.  Most counties caucus by March 17; however, Jackson County and the city of St. Louis caucus on the 24th.  The number of delegates elected per county is proportional to the county's vote for John McCain in 2008.  Detailed allocation can be found here.

It is unlikely that reliable projections can be made from these caucuses, as no straw poll is held and there is no centralized reporting of any kind of results.  As such, we will be in the dark until April 21.

CD Conventions: April 21

Each CD elects 3 delegates, for a total of 24 statewide.  Attendees vote for individual delegates, who will have stated their presidential preference.

State Convention: June 2

The convention as a whole chooses 25 At-Large delegates.  Attendees vote on full slates of delegates.  If no slate wins a majority in the first ballot, the top two slates are voted on in the second ballot; the winning slate goes to Tampa.

RNC Members

David Cole
Lance Beshore
Ann Dickinson

[Tender Branson]

Which site has the best and most uptodate delegate allocation ?

Because if you look at NYT, CNN, FOX, CBS, Greenpapers they all have different delegate counts.

[I left.]

Which site has the best and most uptodate delegate allocation ?

Because if you look at NYT, CNN, FOX, CBS, Greenpapers they all have different delegate counts.

The caucuses that have non-binding preference polls involve quite a bit of guessing..

[Senator X]

Michigan by-CD results.  Again, not all precincts are reporting so there may be resulting errors.

CD 1: Very Likely Santorum.  Santorum has a 687-vote lead in the whole counties that comprise CD 1.  Mason County is split between CD 1 and CD 2.  Mason County is not reporting more detailed results, but Santorum won the county as a whole, so it is very unlikely Romney will make up the difference there.

CD 2: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 8500 votes.

CD 3: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 1100 votes.

CD 4: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 2000 votes.

CD 5: Too Close To Call.  Romney has around a 900 vote lead outside of Tuscola County (with some uncertainty, mainly due to incomplete reporting of absentee votes by precinct in Saginaw Twp). Tuscola County is not reporting by precinct, and Santorum leads there, but it seems unlikely that Santorum will make up the difference there.  However, the AP shows Santorum with a 200-vote lead (thanks cinyc!), so I don't know what to make of it.

CD 6: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 4000 votes.

CD 7: Santorum.  Santorum wins by around 700 votes.

CD 8: Romney.

CD 9: Romney.

CD 10: Likely Romney.  Division of Sterling Heights City and Tuscola County is unclear, but it seems Romney won the district by at least 2000 votes.

CD 11: Romney.

CD 12: Romney.

CD 13: Likely Santorum. (apparently, according to the AP)

CD 14: Romney.

I didn't bother digging through Wayne County, but I find it very unlikely Santorum wins a district there.

That's a total of 8 CDs for Romney, and 6 for Santorum.  This results in a 17-13 split of delegates in favor of Romney.

I think you miscounted, that adds up to seven CDs for both Romney and Santorum.  Also, MI-13 could be explained simply by the fact that there are so few Republicans in the district that even a fairly small number of Democrats voting for Santorum could have actually affected the outcome here (I would argue it certainly made CD-12 closer than it should've been).  Another possibility is that there are so few Republicans here that the people who still are Republicans in the district are farther to the right than one would expect given the area (sort of like how I'd bet that the people in VT who are still active Republican primary voters are more conservative than one would expect given that it is VT, and that as a result while Romney will easily win the state, it won't be by as big a margin as people expect).

[© Tweed the Younger]

so you have Romney at under 50% of delegates awarded so far?

[Erc]

so you have Romney at under 50% of delegates awarded so far?

Just barely over.  A bit more over if you include supers in states that haven't voted yet.

I ran through a somewhat optimistic (but not crazily so) scenario for Santorum recently...Romney just sort of hovers around that 50% mark for the rest of the campaign, and would need maybe only a third of the superdelegates to clinch on the first ballot.

I'll post a more detailed set of projections after Super Tuesday, but it is going to take some doing for Romney not to effectively clinch this by June 3.

[Likely Voter]

A measure I would like to see from one of you number crunchers is what % of upcoming outstanding delegates each candidate needs to win in order to secure the nomination.

This metric can be updated after each primary.

I suspect that sometime in April Gingrich, Santorum and Paul will all reach the 100% mark, and so while Romney will still not have enough to win, the remaining candidates will be guaranteed not to win. At that point they will only remain in hopes of forcing a contested convention, and calls for them to withdraw will probably rise to a new level.

[Mr. Morden]

I'll post a more detailed set of projections after Super Tuesday, but it is going to take some doing for Romney not to effectively clinch this by June 3.

Romney's going to clinch this two days *before* California votes? 

[Erc]

I'll post a more detailed set of projections after Super Tuesday, but it is going to take some doing for Romney not to effectively clinch this by June 3.

Romney's going to clinch this two days *before* California votes? 

Yeah, when Obama wins South Dakota and Montana on June 3, 2008.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Republicans take note: Obama is pulling for Santorum which is because he thinks Santorum is the easiest to beat. I'll be damned if that guy in the oval office is going to tell me who I should vote for to be his opponent.

[Erc]

As noted elsewhere, the Michigan GOP has clarified that the 2 At-Large delegates are to be assigned WTA, so the final total is, as cinyc suspected, 16-14 in favor of Romney.

[Nation]

Politico reporting that Santorum may not qualify for upwards of 18 Ohio delegates because he didn't qualify for any in nine different congressional distircts.


I mean, we can talk about "momemtum" day and night but if THIS is how Santorum's campaign is being run, combined with failing to qualify for the VA ballot -- then wow. I knew Romney's campaign was organized, but I think it's the failure of the other campaigns to have any semblance of organization that is helping him more.

[Erc]

Politico reporting that Santorum may not qualify for upwards of 18 Ohio delegates because he didn't qualify for any in nine different congressional distircts.


I mean, we can talk about "momemtum" day and night but if THIS is how Santorum's campaign is being run, combined with failing to qualify for the VA ballot -- then wow. I knew Romney's campaign was organized, but I think it's the failure of the other campaigns to have any semblance of organization that is helping him more.

He is at least on the ballot in 6 of those congressional districts (he isn't in the other 3, for the purposes of district delegates), so he has a shot of 'winning' those delegates.  I assume the Ohio GOP will coordinate with his campaign when choosing whatever additional delegates need to be allocated.

[J. J.]

Politico reporting that Santorum may not qualify for upwards of 18 Ohio delegates because he didn't qualify for any in nine different congressional distircts.


I mean, we can talk about "momemtum" day and night but if THIS is how Santorum's campaign is being run, combined with failing to qualify for the VA ballot -- then wow. I knew Romney's campaign was organized, but I think it's the failure of the other campaigns to have any semblance of organization that is helping him more.

He is at least on the ballot in 6 of those congressional districts (he isn't in the other 3, for the purposes of district delegates), so he has a shot of 'winning' those delegates.  I assume the Ohio GOP will coordinate with his campaign when choosing whatever additional delegates need to be allocated.

I think there is a thread on the party rules on this issue.

[Erc]

Making a projection in Washington is difficult, due to the enforced runoff balloting at the LD/County conventions (once sub-20% slates are eliminated, it's French-style between the two top placers).  This means that tactical voting plays an extremely important role in determining what slates are chosen to go to the State Convention.

If one is completely agnostic about this, and just assumes supporters of candidates who don't make the last runoff distribute themselves evenly (or just don't vote), Romney easily wins the entire Tampa delegation.

If one assumes Gingrich supporters predominantly go to Santorum (while remaining agnostic about Paulistas), Santorum should pick up the delegates from CDs 5 (Spokane) and 6 (Olympic Peninsula), but the convention as a whole is dominated by Romney supporters.  Paul is a non-factor.

Of course, in addition to these tactical voting concerns, there are the more mundane concerns...LD results aren't known yet, so it's possible someone other than Romney will be able to dominate certain King County (and environs) LDs and change this analysis.  And of course, Stealth Paul, etc.

I'm going to tentatively go with the Gingrich -> Santorum tactical voting prescription.  To be honest, I think it's a decent lower bound for Romney, and as he's the man to beat we may as well be conservative with his delegate projections.

Romney - 34
Santorum - 6

 

[argentarius]

Have you got a map with the number of delegates on each of the states like the EV map? It'd be very helpful. Best thing about super tuesday is that Romney's best states have few delegates (apart from Virginia).

[Erc]

I need to display Maine and Nebraska's CDs in order to get the proper delegate total to show up in the state itself; pay no attention to the '1' value in each CD (though I have colored the Maine CDs appropriately for reference).

The numbers off the coast of Florida correspond to Puerto Rico and the insular territories (Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Marianas).  All these territories have already voted, all overwhelmingly for Romney.

Atlas conventions for the colors:  Green = Romney, Blue = Gingrich, Orange = Santorum, Yellow = Paul (ME CD 2).

Of course, most states are not winner-takes-all, so don't take a map like this too seriously.