The Delegate Fight: 2012
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #200 on: March 05, 2012, 11:12:48 AM »
« edited: April 04, 2012, 12:08:48 AM by Erc »

Chronological delegate assignment:



For states that have multiple processes or stages (Louisiana, for example), the conclusion of the first media-reported process/stage that has any bearing on delegate allocation is what is reflected here.

Gray: Already occurred
Orange: April 21
Red: April 24
Blue: May 8
Green: May 15-29
Yellow: June

All insular territories have already voted.
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argentarius
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« Reply #201 on: March 05, 2012, 01:33:36 PM »

Did you colour Alaska wrong or does the caucus just not pick the delegates tomorrow? Anyway, thanks very much. I love the way Georgia is the 4th most important.
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Erc
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« Reply #202 on: March 05, 2012, 03:03:36 PM »

Did you colour Alaska wrong or does the caucus just not pick the delegates tomorrow? Anyway, thanks very much. I love the way Georgia is the 4th most important.

The poll taken tomorrow does not actually determine the delegate allocations; a separate poll is taken upon entrance to the district conventions, which take place over the next few weeks.  A sizable number of the district conventions do take place tomorrow (a bit under half of the total), but they do not finish until Nome has its on the 24th.  Even for the district conventions that do take place tomorrow, there could be a substantial difference between the two votes; there are registration fees for the district conventions, for example.
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« Reply #203 on: March 06, 2012, 12:03:58 AM »



I need to display Maine and Nebraska's CDs in order to get the proper delegate total to show up in the state itself; pay no attention to the '1' value in each CD (though I have colored the Maine CDs appropriately for reference).

The numbers off the coast of Florida correspond to Puerto Rico and the insular territories (Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Marianas).  Puerto Rico unfortunately no longer displays on the map as it used to.

Atlas conventions for the colors:  Green = Romney, Blue = Gingrich, Orange = Santorum, Yellow = Paul (ME CD 2).

Of course, most states are not winner-takes-all (only AZ & FL have been so far), so don't take a map like this too seriously.

Just change the year to 1968 and the Maine and Nebraska CDs go away.
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Erc
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« Reply #204 on: March 06, 2012, 11:57:34 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2012, 02:35:29 AM by Erc »

The easy calls:

Romney wins all of Idaho's 32 delegates as he got a majority in the state.  

Romney wins all of Massachusetts' 38 delegates as no other candidate got above 15% of the vote.

In North Dakota, the delegation (which automatically includes around 7 superdelegates) may assign itself proportionally based on the statewide vote.  If this happens, the vote would presumably be 11 Santorum, 8 Paul, 7 Romney and 2 Gingrich.  I'll check later to see how reasonable this expectation is, but I'll stick with this allocation for the time being.

In Virginia, Romney won a majority statewide and won all At-Large delegates.  Apparently, Paul won VA-03 and does pick up 3 delegates in the state to Romney's 43.
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muon2
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« Reply #205 on: March 07, 2012, 08:41:29 AM »

Politico reporting that Santorum may not qualify for upwards of 18 Ohio delegates because he didn't qualify for any in nine different congressional distircts.


I mean, we can talk about "momemtum" day and night but if THIS is how Santorum's campaign is being run, combined with failing to qualify for the VA ballot -- then wow. I knew Romney's campaign was organized, but I think it's the failure of the other campaigns to have any semblance of organization that is helping him more.

That's been very apparent in IL, too. Romney was organized with delegate slates last summer, and started getting signatures right away in the fall. Paul was reasonably well organized. Gingrich only put together a slate over Thanksgiving weekend. Santorum had no presence until Cain dropped out, and then basically inherited the Cain slate.
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Erc
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« Reply #206 on: March 07, 2012, 12:33:31 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2012, 12:54:21 PM by Erc »

Super Tuesday Results

Georgia

Gingrich wins the At-Large delegates, 20-11, and picks up the 3 RNC members for winning the state.  Santorum falls just short of the 20% threshold needed for winning At-Large delegates.

DeKalb County (feat. Atlanta) has yet to report breakdowns by CD.  As a result, I cannot call the delegates from CDs 4, 5, and 6 as of yet.  Among the other 11 CDs, Gingrich wins 27 delegates, while Romney and Santorum win 3 a pieces.  The remaining 9 delegates will presumably break strongly for Romney, who won DeKalb county.

Total:
Gingrich - 50
Romney - 14
Santorum - 3
Pending - 9

Idaho

Romney wins all 32 delegates.

Massachusetts

Romney wins all 38 delegates.

North Dakota

If the delegation is allocated proportionally:

Santorum - 11
Paul - 8
Romney - 7
Gingrich - 2

I'll see how feasible this is later.

Ohio

Romney - 38
Santorum - 21
Unallocated - 4

Those 4 'Unallocated' delegates are the delegates in CDs where Santorum won but did not file a complete delegate slate.  A contest committee will decide how these delegates will be awarded.

Also remember that all Ohio delegates are only "morally bound" and could shift their vote.

Oklahoma

Santorum - 14
Romney - 13
Gingrich - 13

Tennessee

Is not providing CD breakdowns at the moment, although they easily could.  The At-Large delegation split 12-9-7, Santorum-Romney-Gingrich.  The CD delegates should split heavily in favor of Santorum.

Virginia

Romney - 43
Paul - 3

Vermont

Romney - 9
Paul - 4
Santorum - 4
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Erc
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« Reply #207 on: March 07, 2012, 02:23:58 PM »

Tennessee CD Results

Remember, in each CD, the winner gets 2 and the placer gets 1 (unless someone breaks 2/3rds or only 1 candidate breaks 20%).  The old CD lines are used, as the new ones were not in place prior to the filing deadlines.

CD 1: Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Slight Lean Romney

In the counties entirely within CD 1, Gingrich has a 596-vote lead over Romney.  In Sevier County, which is about 75% in CD 1, Romney has a 865-vote lead over Gingrich.  In Jefferson County, which is about 22% in CD 1, Romney has a 61-vote lead over Gingrich.  Romney may squeak this one out, but it really depends on the exact breakdown in Sevier.

CD 2: Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Romney

CD 3: Winner: Santorum.  Placer:  Slight Lean Romney

In the counties wholly within CD 3, Romney has a 57-vote lead.  In Jefferson County (78% in CD 3), Romney has a 61-vote lead.  In Roane County (26% in CD 3), Romney has a 224-vote lead.

CD 4:  Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Likely Gingrich

In the counties wholly within CD 4, Gingrich has a 1091-vote lead.  In Roane County (76% in CD 4), Romney has a 224-vote lead.  In Hickman County (59% in CD 4), Gingrich has a 132-vote lead.  In Williamson County (12% in CD 4), Romney has a 3465-vote lead.

CD 5:  Winner:  Likely Santorum.  Placer: Likely Romney

Despite a narrow win in Davidson, Romney was trounced in Wilson and Cheatham counties, and likely loses the CD.

CD 6:  Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Likely Gingrich

Gingrich is ahead by 177 votes outside of Wilson county.  Gingrich is also ahead 501 votes in Wilson, though only 22% of the county is in CD 6.

CD 7:  Winner:  Likely Santorum.  Placer:  Likely Romney

CD 8:  Winner: Santorum.  Placer:  Likely Gingrich

CD 9:  Winner: Lean Santorum.  Placer:  Lean Romney

Due to the split of Shelby County, CDs 7, 8, and 9 are harder to figure out.  CD 9, in particular, is almost sheer guesswork.

If these assignments hold (and there are many razor-thin margins for second place, and Lord knows about Shelby County):

Santorum - 18
Romney - 6
Gingrich - 3
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Erc
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« Reply #208 on: March 07, 2012, 03:03:46 PM »

Alaska, North Dakota Updates

I apparently, once again, misread the Alaska GOP rules.  Last night's voting results were indeed binding on the GOP delegation; there is no additional ballot held at the District Conventions for fee-paying attendees, as I had previously stated.

The (approximate) resulting delegate allocation:

Romney - 8
Santorum - 7
Paul - 6
Gingrich - 3

This is based off of the total statewide vote; if anyone can find breakdowns by LD or precinct, I'd be able to come up with a more accurate result---in particular, Santorum is on the cusp of gaining another delegate, at Gingrich's expense.



North Dakota's rules are apparently quite similar; there are separate District Conventions which actually elect the delegates to the State Conventions---these were not what happened last night.  These began on January 17, and end on March 10.  The final delegation to Tampa may choose to assign itself proportionally based on the results of last night's vote---or they may not, it is entirely voluntary.  For now, I'll assume that they do---but if they don't, the results of the District and State Conventions may be quite important.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #209 on: March 07, 2012, 03:47:03 PM »

so you have Romney at 52.6% of total.  could dwindle towards the half mark these next few weeks.
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Erc
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« Reply #210 on: March 07, 2012, 04:10:57 PM »

so you have Romney at 52.6% of total.  could dwindle towards the half mark these next few weeks.

And then he'll come shooting back up in April.

My current conservative (i.e. favorable-to-Santorum) projections have Romney coming in at 50.1% of total delegates at the end of this process, leaving the supers uncommitted.  That is, even if every single currently undeclared super declares against Romney, he still wins on the first ballot.

I'll be refining these "worst case for Romney" projections and scenarios in the coming weeks...but the future looks quite bright for Mr. Romney, even if it takes until June for his opponents to give up the ghost.
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nclib
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« Reply #211 on: March 07, 2012, 11:19:57 PM »

It would be good to have a running tally (either here or on another thread) of results by CD.

I think these have been confirmed:

ID (all) - Romney
WY-AL - Romney
MA (all) - Romney
SC-1 - Romney
SC 2-7 Gingrich
VT-AL Romney
ND-AL Santorum
MN 1-4,6-8 Santorum
MN-5 - Paul
ME-1 Romney
ME-2 Paul
ND-AL Santorum
IA 1-3 Romney
IA-4 Santorum
AK-AL Romney
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« Reply #212 on: March 08, 2012, 12:21:53 AM »

I'd be surprised if Santorum won TN-9, in 2008 McCain won the district despite Huckabee winning the county, this seems like a similar situation.
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Erc
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« Reply #213 on: March 08, 2012, 12:37:34 AM »

I'd be surprised if Santorum won TN-9, in 2008 McCain won the district despite Huckabee winning the county, this seems like a similar situation.

Very plausible.

Without any other information, my proxy would be the votes for the individual delegates in a given district; if Gingrich did well, Santorum probably did too.  However, in TN-9 not even Gingrich had a slate of delegates.

Shelby County's election returns website is hilarious, by the way.


In other news, DeKalb finally reported in in Georgia, and those 9 delegates did indeed break 5-4 Romney, as expected.  Gingrich was just short of a majority in CD 4.
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Erc
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« Reply #214 on: March 08, 2012, 07:57:43 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2012, 11:30:30 PM by Erc »

April 3

With April comes the removal of the requirements that delegate allocation be proportional, and we have some WTA states again, simplifying our lives.

District of Columbia

Overview
19 Delegates (0.83% of total)
Primary
16 At-Large, WTA
3 RNC Members

DC Primary Rules

The winner of the primary receives all 16 At-Large delegates.

RNC Members

Robert Kabel
Anthony W. Parker
Betsy Warronen - Romney

Results (as of 4/4)

Romney won and receives all 16 delegates.

Maryland

Overview
37 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Primary
13 At-Large, WTA
24 by CD, WTA

13 delegates (this includes the RNC members) are awarded to the winner of the primary.

3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of Maryland's 8 CDs, for a total of 24 by CD.

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound to the statewide winner.

Results (as of 4/4)

Romney swept all CDs and wins all 37 delegates.

Wisconsin

Overview
42 Delegates (1.84% of total)
Primary
18 At-Large, WTA
24 by CD, WTA

WI GOP Constitution

18 delegates (this includes the RNC members) are awarded to the winner of the primary.

3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin's 8 CDs, for a total of 24 by CD.

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound to the statewide winner.

Results (as of 4/4)

Romney - 33
Santorum - 9

This is tentative, and still pending some CD results.
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Erc
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« Reply #215 on: March 08, 2012, 08:32:47 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2012, 10:44:08 AM by Erc »

April 24

Connecticut

Overview
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Primary
10 At-Large (Proportional, 20%)
15 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

CT GOP Rules

3 delegates are assigned to the winner of each of Connecticut's 5 CDs, for a total of 15 CDs.

10 delegates are assigned based on the statewide vote.  If a candidate gets a majority, they win all 10 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are assigned among all candidates who meet a 20% threshold, proportionally to their share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number; if rounding errors occur, remove delegates from the loser or add delegates to the winner, as appropriate.

RNC Members

Jerry Labriola
John Frey
Pat Longo

Delaware

Overview
17 Delegates (0.74% of total)
Primary
17 At-Large, WTA

State Law leaves delegate allocation to the DE GOP, whose rules I cannot find at present.

The winner of the primary receives all 17 Delegates (including RNC Members)

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound to the primary winner.

New York

Overview
95 Delegates (4.16% of total)
Primary
34 At-Large, Proportional
58 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

NY State Law, see section 2-122-b.

2 delegates are assigned to the winner of each of New York's 29 CDs (2000 boundaries), for a total of 58.

34 delegates are assigned based on the statewide vote.  If a candidate gets a majority, they win all 10 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are assigned among all candidates who meet a 20% threshold, proportional to their share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Round all fractions to the nearest whole number.  If rounding errors result, add candidates to the winner or remove them from the loser, as appropriate.

RNC Members

Ed Cox - Romney
Lawrence Kadish - Gingrich
Jennifer Rich

Pennsylvania

Overview
72 Delegates (3.15% of total)
'Loophole' Primary / Convention
59 by CD
10 At-Large (Convention)
3 RNC Members

I cannot find the PA GOP Rules at present.

In each CD, voters directly elect 3 or 4 delegates.  The presidential preference of the delegates is not listed on the ballot.  A Presidential Preference Poll is also held, but it has no influence on the delegate allocation.

A full list of delegate candidates can be found here.

On June 10, the Pennsylvania GOP State Committee chooses the 10 At-Large delegates.

RNC Members
Robert A. Gleason, Jr.
Robert B. Asher - Romney
Christine Toretti

Rhode Island

Overview
19 Delegates (0.83% of total)
Primary
16 by CD (Proportional)
3 RNC Members

RI Primary Rules

A candidate must receive 15% of the statewide vote in order to receive any delegates.

In each of Rhode Island's 2 CDs, 8 delegates are distributed proportionally based on the results of the vote in that CD.  Round fractions to the nearest whole number.  Resolution of rounding errors is done by the RI GOP State Central Committee.

RNC Members

Mark Zaccaria - Romney
Joseph Trillo - Romney
Carol A. Mumford

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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #216 on: March 08, 2012, 10:46:24 PM »

I'd be surprised if Santorum won TN-9, in 2008 McCain won the district despite Huckabee winning the county, this seems like a similar situation.

Very plausible.

Without any other information, my proxy would be the votes for the individual delegates in a given district; if Gingrich did well, Santorum probably did too.  However, in TN-9 not even Gingrich had a slate of delegates.

Shelby County's election returns website is hilarious, by the way.

I got the report from the Election Commission - Romney did win TN-9 which should give him 2 delegates and Santorum one.
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Erc
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« Reply #217 on: March 09, 2012, 01:04:16 AM »
« Edited: March 09, 2012, 01:08:03 AM by Erc »

I'd be surprised if Santorum won TN-9, in 2008 McCain won the district despite Huckabee winning the county, this seems like a similar situation.

Very plausible.

Without any other information, my proxy would be the votes for the individual delegates in a given district; if Gingrich did well, Santorum probably did too.  However, in TN-9 not even Gingrich had a slate of delegates.

Shelby County's election returns website is hilarious, by the way.

I got the report from the Election Commission - Romney did win TN-9 which should give him 2 delegates and Santorum one.

Any other things to note?  I assume Santorum won all the other CDs, but did I get the second place finishers right?  (Romney second in 5 districts, Gingrich second in 3, Santorum second in 1)
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argentarius
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« Reply #218 on: March 09, 2012, 04:18:59 AM »

How did the Iowa district caucuses go?
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Erc
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« Reply #219 on: March 09, 2012, 04:23:23 AM »

How did the Iowa district caucuses go?

They are this Saturday, along with the rest of Wyoming.
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« Reply #220 on: March 10, 2012, 12:08:55 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2012, 12:11:13 AM by The Old World Is Behind Us »

Some time this weekend (BTW weekend for me is Sunday/Monday, I'm still working tomorrow), I might try to look up info on the Minnesota conventions that have been held, though I'll be somewhat busy (Mass Effect 3, plus I'm helping my buddies out setting up for the preview gathering for their new church on Sunday too.) But plenty of counties and districts should've had held their conventions already.

Unfortunately while Minnesota has several fine progressive blogs that report on the DFL caucus numbers well, Minnesota right wing blogs tend to be little more than hit pieces on Democrats and don't provide much useful info (for comparison the largest Minnesota progressive blog is titled the "Minnesota Progressive Project" while the largest conservative blog is titled "Minnesota Democrats Exposed".)
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argentarius
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« Reply #221 on: March 10, 2012, 07:21:18 AM »

Hopefully the Iowa district caucuses tell us about whether Ron Paul really does have an army of ninja delegates.
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Matthew
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« Reply #222 on: March 10, 2012, 07:38:17 AM »

I'd bet that Romney takes quite a few of Pauls delegates away. Wouldn't suprise me if Santorum loses some too with those organizional problems.

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Erc
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« Reply #223 on: March 10, 2012, 08:16:15 AM »

Hopefully the Iowa district caucuses tell us about whether Ron Paul really does have an army of ninja delegates.

Hopefully we get some reliable reports from people outside the Paul camp...
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argentarius
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« Reply #224 on: March 10, 2012, 11:58:09 AM »

I'd bet that Romney takes quite a few of Pauls delegates away. Wouldn't suprise me if Santorum loses some too with those organizional problems.


Infact he does have an Iowa organisation.
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